If the fight comes off, I don't Lopez has much of a chance despite Khan's obvious weaknesses. A few years ago it would have been very interesting, but Lopez is pretty well shot now.
Corruption. Besides the judging mentioned here you could also throw in the very sketchy fast stoppage of his fight where he was looking bad against Alfonso Gomez(which also had crazy scorecards at the time of the stoppage to boot). And of course, there's the careful matchmaking to get him set up with a paper belt originally culminating in him beating the great Matthew Hatton for a 154 lb strap.
To be fair to Canelo, the corruption itself for a house fighter isn't anything new and at least he's seemingly turned the corner to taking on a reasonable challenge every few fights. The run of Trout, Floyd, Angulo, Lara, Kirkland, and Cotto is a solid mix of challenge and stay-busy types. The Khan fight is a joke but at least there's some cause for optimism that after that he takes on someone legit next(probably at a catchweight).
It's ok for an elite fighter to fight a soft touch if that fighter is active, has a high level of competition otherwise, and will clearly go on after said soft touch to make a good fight. So Floyd fighting Berto is bad and Ward fighting a blown up Paul Smith is bad, etc.
Khan does not have the resume of a top 5 Welterweight, so no he is not. I would say someone else on the thread had an accurate take, he has the talent to where he might be able to beat someone in the top five, but he could also lose to someone in the top 30 Welterweights or so. He can't handle punchers or pressure fighters that are relentless enough or have good enough timing to get past his speed. He feasts on low power boxers and slower light-hitting brawlers.
Cotto likely wins. He's more skilled than Canelo both in terms of boxing and inside fighting from an offensive standpoint, easily better defensively, and actually has deceptive foot speed. That being said, he hasn't really faced a puncher in a while and Canelo does have fast hands, so there is that danger factor.
If they fought again Alexander would get mauled again. You have to have power to keep Porter at bay and Alexander doesn't have that. Alexander usually enjoys a significant athletic advantage over his opponents, but he doesn't have that either against Porter, who can match him on speed and far surpasses him on strength. Once you get past Alexander's speed, he's not particularly good defensively and can't fight on the inside, where Porter likes to operate. It's an all-around bad style matchup for Alexander.
Ortiz stops Khan. For all his flaws, Ortiz has quick enough hands to get to Khan, and Khan doesn't have much power at Welterweight. He gets to Khan before Khan puts enough leather on him to force a quit job.
Rios stops Ortiz. Ortiz can't box well enough to keep Rios off of him, Rios has the chin to take Ortiz's power, and Rios has enough pop to make Victor quit.
Khan decisions Rios. Rios will keep coming after him all night but Khan's speed advantage is just too great for Rios to get to him.
Good matchup. Kamegai will keep coming all night but Gomez will box the breaks off him. Kamegai couldn't handle Guerrero on the outside at all but Guerrero made life a lot harder for himself slugging it out with him after the first round. Gomez won't make that mistake.
He gets a lot of attention, but how does his success REALLY compare to great trainers like Steward and Richardson?
If you're just talking quantity of great fighters trained, he's nowhere near their level. That being said, every fighter he's taken on full-time prior to Bradley(Lalonde, Moorer, Povetkin) won some version of a championship under his tutelage, his fighters combined only have one career defeat(Moorer's loss to Foreman in which Atlas had warned Moorer repeatedly about the setup that would eventually KO him) with him in their corner, and in my opinion none of those fighters were out of this world talents by any stretch.
I think Teddy is a good technical and disciplinarian type of trainer, but that type of training and coaching simply isn't for everyone. And he does in my view play up for the cameras on some of his speeches. However, in the case of Bradley, I think it's a good fit and Bradley will be at the least the most competitive with Pacquaio he's ever been in this fight, and has a good chance of pulling the mild upset. You're not going to see Bradley going crazy with haymakers or basically losing to just the Pacquaio 1-2 down the stretch this time around.
Canelo won't fight Berto immediately after Khan for sure. The backlash is already pretty strong for the Khan fight and that would be consecutive not that great Welters dragged up to Canelo weight.
Shane actually looked pretty good there though I seriously question how long he can keep it up for on fight night. But to the OP's comment, Porter is basically just a very good athlete with grit, he doesn't have much in the skills department. His mauling style is still pretty hard to handle with that athletic ability and toughness though.
Porter struggled with Alexander while Khan vs Alexander was a mismatch - Khan was about 2 or 3 levels superior to Alexander. I think Porter only has a punchers chance against Khan, if he doesn't get lucky, he gets brutalized and dominated the same way Alexander did.
Porter didn't struggle much with Alexander himself and has a totally different style anyway, making comparative results on that common opponent pointless. Alexander doesn't put pressure on you, he's a low power slick boxer-type. Khan usually feasts on that style of fighter with his length and speed. He's never faired well against the kind of pressure Porter brings to the table. Even Algieri was able to change his style completely to pressure fighter and massively trouble Khan.
You guys picking Khan in this matchup are pretty nuts to me. Khan does not have the pop to keep Porter at bay, Porter has the athletic ability to keep up with Khan, and Khan won't be able to keep Porter off of him by clinching because Porter's physical strength is too great. We do remember Peterson vs Khan and the recent Algieri vs Khan experience right? Khan cannot fight on the inside, he cannot handle the kind of pressure that Porter can bring to bear on him, and he can't clinch his way out of it here. Porter wears Khan out and stops him late.
Porter is not a pressure fighter. He's a brawler and his style is bordering on mediocrity. He doesn't belong in the elite group.
He should rematch Broner. Or Haymon should just let him feast on guys like Karass, Berto, Guerrero, Diaz, Molinas, etc.
Khan would just employ what Brook did, clinch, clinch, clinch. Khan's combo would kill Porter.
That's why fans should be demanding Thurman vs Khan, not this silly matchup.
Brook is strong enough to do that(plus having a favorable ref helps) and be effective, he also carries a lot more pop than Khan that was able to get Porter's respect somewhat early and hurt Porter a bit later on in the fight. But it was still a close fight and Khan doesn't have the kind of strength to clinch Porter and keep him locked up on the inside. And sure, Porter brawls, he's not skilled about his work, but he knows how to close the distance fast and put the pressure on with his mauling style, and he doesn't stop doing it. Again, look how easily Algieri was able to catch Khan with a pressure fighting style he effectively learned in one camp. Porter brings far more relentless pressure with better athletic ability backing it. I would 100% bet on Porter to dog out Khan on the inside.
Thurman vs Khan would be fine too. Khan would get stopped there likely by a Thurman counter from a weird angle. Khan's best route at this point is Kell Brook, where he'd also lose by stoppage, but at least he'd get a great payday out of it. Waiting for Floyd has failed.
Ward had made a career out of silencing doubters. To say "major mistakes" is just ignorant based on Andre's fights thus far. If anything, Kovalev is rife with mistakes (leaving jaw exposed and arms extended) but he's still a sight better than anyone he's fought so you can't take much away from him. Ward causes guys to make mistakes and puts then in situations they don't know how to cope with. Case in point, his body jab. If they respond to it, they get countered. If not, they eat body jabs. There's no smarter boxer than Ward right now.
While I agree that it's hard to justify a statement of Ward making "major mistakes" in the ring, I would argue that the body jab you mention would probably something Kovalev would target. Anytime it looks like Ward will throw a body jab, I'd tell Kovalev to step in and throw a chopping right hand. Stepping in reduces the power of the jab and as Ward ducks about the same when he throws the jab to the body, the chopping right hand is a good punch to counter that jab. Kovalev might get countered by something else(like a left hook upstairs) if Ward sees it coming but Ward isn't a puncher and if you're hesitant to throw against him he will pick you apart anyway. If Kovalev hits Ward in that position, he likely drops him.
Looooool. "Abandoned the jab". People don't just do that.
He did. Oscar pulled his typical fade job as the fight went on, the punch output slowed down, and though Floyd never established anything that troubled the De La Hoya jab he was able to potshot a gassing, plodding DLH to eek out the win. Make no mistake though, Floyd was having problems with that jab and did not take it away.
The best quasi-recent example imo is Ward vs Froch. Froch's jab(typically one of his best punches) was basically nothing but counter fodder for Ward.
Khan's "if Brook can do this" stuff is getting old. It's very clear he wants no part of the fight and wants to play it safe to preserve his unlikely chances to fight Floyd, hence why he's faced nothing but non-punchers since moving up to Welterweight. Brook should fight said name opponents anyway but do so knowing that Khan probably won't fight him either way.
Guerrero broke Kamegai. He left something in the ring that night, Gomez was the benefactor of the beating he took. I'd like to see Gomez vs. Guerrero and I'd pick Guerrero to win.
It was the exact same Kamegai that Guerrero fought. The difference was that Gomez actually fought him intelligently as opposed to Guerrero, who boxed Kamegai well for one round and then elected of his own accord to brawl the rest of the way with him.
And The Ghost deserves all the credit in the world for his heart and grit, but it's very clear that he is a top 20 level Welterweight at best, not an elite one. All of his wins at Welterweight were life and death affairs against limited fighters that have now all lost far more clearly to a less regarded fighter since they fought Guerrero. He just gets the hype due to the Floyd fight, which really shouldn't have happened anyway.
As to Gomez, he doesn't possess top level athletic ability, but the skills, ring IQ, and intangibles have always been there. I'd like to see him get a fight against Guerrero or a solid name next.
Guerrero wasn't shot, he's simply not that good at Welterweight. His three wins at Welterweight are all life-and-death wars against fairly limited opponents and his two losses to Floyd and Thurman were blowouts. Now Floyd is obviously great and Thurman is very good so there's no shame there despite the one-sided nature of those fights, but the three wins are more telling. He struggled to beat Aydin(who has since lost to JSK and Postol), struggled to beat Berto(who has since lost to JSK), and struggled to beat Kamegai(who was just badly outboxed by Gomez). You have to praise The Ghost for his toughness and heart but he's basically a top 20 or so level Welterweight, if that. He just gets more hype because of his backstory and the Floyd fight.
It wouldn't last long. Ortiz might land everything he throws against Rios for as long as he's in there, but we all know Rios is going to soak it up until he catches Ortiz and then the fight's over by stoppage/quittage, which I would expect to happen within five rounds.
As SilverMiles indicates, neither guy is really a definitive A side on this one, it's a solid matchup between two Welterweight/Light Middleweight contenders that are roughly regarded on the same level and that come to fight every time out. If I had to hazard a guess, I imagine Golden Boy would probably prefer Kamegai to win because he's kind of the flavor of the moment coming off of his FotY contender war against Guerrero last year. And some of the oddsmakers are imo ridiculously in his favor for this fight. However, I think Gomez will pull out the decision in a competitive fight because he has underrated boxing ability and more experience at the world level. Kamegai is a warrior but he has very little ranged boxing ability and his pressure(while constant) is more of a following type of pressure, he doesn't cut the ring off well. If you look at the first round of the Guerrero fight and the Jorge Silva fight, his limitations are pretty clearly exposed, and compared to Gomez his level of opposition in general is poor.
Yes, it would be a lot worse, but it is not going to happen so it doesn't matter. Floyd didn't "Gatti" Robert Guerrero, who posed him no threat whatsoever. He hasn't pulled a Gatti on anyone he's fought since Gatti, who subsequently got Gatti'd by Baldomir and Gatti'd/retired by Gomez.
I think people put a bit too much emphasis on the Cotto fight as the definitive fight to judge Gomez. He came into that fight with a broken knuckle on his right hand and after having a serious illness in the middle of his training camp that required him to be hospitalized, plus that was prime Cotto in there, who was an absolute monster. Alvarez shows promise but he's no prime Cotto yet. Gomez is a good technician, and most importantly he will actually come to win and throw punches unlike most of Canelo's opposition to this point. There won't be any bullets left in the chamber from him either way it goes.
From an overall perspective, I'd say since the show:
1. Sergio Mora
2. Alfonso Gomez
3. K-9 Bundrage
4. Sakio Bika
5. Ishe Smith
I think Gomez is the best of the bunch from a P4P perspective and is the most entertaining, but Mora has the win over Forrest for the WBC Light Middleweight belt and the draw over Mosley(in a terrible fight), so from an overall standpoint he has the edge despite being inactive for long stretches since the show. Gomez has been involved in a FotY candidate, gotten a lot of solid wins since the show, and retired Gatti in a great performance. He got dominated by Cotto(fought him coming off a serious illness and with a broken hand going into the fight), came back with solid wins over Jesus Soto-Karass and Jose Luis Castillo. Bundrage is not very good, he is physically strong and has a lot of heart, but has a weak chin and few skills. However, due to good timing he got a fight with a far-faded Cory Spinks, and won the IBF Light Middleweight belt, so he merits third. While relatively inactive since the show, Bika annihilated Peter Manfredo and gave Andre Ward arguably the toughest fight of his career. Lastly, Ishe might have been the most talented of the Contenders, but he's become basically a high-level gatekeeper since the show because of his overly defensive style. However, he's fought many rising prospects(Julio, Jacobs, Guerrero, Wolak) and given them all rough fights, beating Wolak.
For the record, Alfonso Gomez is scheduled to fight March 19th against a TBA at a TBA location on a card with Vanes, in what most likely will be a tune-up fight since he's had a year layoff and is coming off an injury as well. It's possible, but unlikely he fights Williams on April 30th.
As to Williams making Welterweight, I doubt he can do it anymore, and 154 is relatively weak now. He can easily beat K-9 Bundrage at 154 if he wants a cheap belt and a tune-up. K-9 is physically strong and has heart, but is not skilled at all, has a weak chin, and doesn't bring much workrate to the table.
Gomez is fighting July 17th now against a stay-busy opponent in Mexico, possibly Henry Bruseles, then he's hoping to get Saul Alvarez(or another semi-big name fight) in September during Mexican Independence Day weekend. No offense to Garcia, but he doesn't bring the name value of Alvarez, and while I'm confident Gomez would outbox him badly, it's fairly understandable why Gomez wouldn't fight him in July if he can get a big fight in September.
Of the two, beating Cotto again would mean more and probably be more competitive anyway. A fighter like Margarito that has no speed and lacking defense is a blowout win for Pacquiao. Beating Cotto would mean another belt in another weight class and take away the small controversy of the catchweight in their previous fight. And to be fair, Pacquiao is likely to dominate Cotto also, but I think it would at least be a little more competitive than Margarito vs Pacquiao.
Regardless of feeling on the outcome, it is highly unlikely the fight gets stopped on cuts either way. Pacquiao has been more susceptible to cuts, but has fought through them every time, so it would have to be a truly horrendous cut to merit a stoppage. Mayweather hasn't been cut often just like he hasn't been hit very often so it's unlikely on his end even as explosive as Pacquiao is.