I watched it all back. I'm putting money on Wilder to beat Fury in the third fight. Here's why.

[Damn Wicked]

It’s possible that Wilder has developed a few new wrinkles to his game but I have serious doubts about him improving significantly. Anything can happen when two fighters get in the ring, so I never count anyone out no matter how much of a gap in skill there may be. Look what happened last night in the Charlo -Montiel fight. Everyone expected Charlotte to wipe Monticello out in 2 or 3 rounds. A fighter’s will, determination and mindset can give him a huge boost. I think Tyson Fury’s biggest strength is his mind and will. He’s very bullish, viscous and determined. Wilder has quite a bit of that dog in him too….but I think Fury’s mentality is stronger. That is what makes me predict Fury wins this fight.

[billeau2]

Right - but when you see punches coming and you just brace to take the shot?

1) That works against guys like Cunningham that don't really have knockout power.

That's why I said, I think the reason Fury was able to deal with Wilder has everything to do with the way he evades the right hand but absorbs the left, because he knows that Wilder can't knockout with the left (he has, but it's not his go-to and it's harder to do for him).

I'm saying what you're saying, which is to set enough of a trap to basically catch Fury mid-throw with the right hand, which yes, means Wilder has to go into firefight mode if Fury is in attack mode, but I don't think Wilder will be in as much danger if he can manage to do that in the first or second round.

2) I also like what you're suggesting with touching the arm to force Fury to move it and then nail him. Manny Steward used to suggest that strategy against a taller fighter.

3)From my eye, what got him bamboozled in the second fight is that he landed the right but Fury didn't move because he was prepared for it, and it demoralized him. That's what can't happen. He has to expect that Fury will smother the shot if he can't evade it, WHICH IS WHY HE HAS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE. Fury stops evading when he's trying to smother shots.

To me that's the key. That's what I'm saying - force Fury to stop moving and just worry about landing on him. That's easier to do if Fury is aggressive.

It's like Spence. He doesn't worry about what's coming at him, he'll take punches to land his own and he's taken punishment yet came out on top because his aggression was cleaner. That's the strategy I see working best for Deontay Wilder.

Im going to number each point to which I am responding.

1. Its a mixed bag. It does help against a KO because you arent getting caught unexpected. But its also a kind of flinch lol. Yes Fury and a lot of intelligent fighters will avoid the power shots of a one handed fighter. Wilder is strong enough and has hurt Fury, something people don't talk about lol. So he can catch Fury.

2. Yeah you have to find a way to beat reach...it is a much greater advantage than a pure weight advantage.
3. Yes, if he can get Fury to think he is off balance even. Wilder has chances to win for sure. And he does know he can handle Fury's power... taking one to give one is a legit strategy under the circumstances.

[billeau2]

I'm not saying it's a sure bet, I'm saying it's not a sure bet that Fury wins. It depends on how good of a trainer Malik is, which we don't know.

People really need to go back and compare Wilder's fight style against someone like Molina (arguably one of the best performers against Wilder) to how he fought Fury BOTH times.

Wilder was way more aggressive against Molina. He used his aggression as his defense. He got clipped but never stopped going forward, and that caused Molina to make critical mistakes that allowed Wilder to land shots through and around the guard.

Molina doesn't evade like Fury does. But Sugarhill Steward-trained Fury doesn't evade nearly as much. That's why I honestly feel aggression is the answer for Wilder, not being passive and tentative.

What we all don't know is whether Wilder will come in aggressive or not, and we don't know how Fury will deal with that kind of pressure.

What we do know is that the two guys I shared, who were aggressive against Fury, dropped him.

Its also largely a matter of perspective when we think of psychology here: So your Wilder's trainer, your meeting with him regrding this third fight. My points would be... "You know you can hurt him, you have been able to knock him down. You took his best at your worse. You know the worse he can do to you did not stop you." Then... "All you need is to hit him poperly, not to outbox him."

Whether this talk is true, or partially true, it is a major deterrent to the idea that Fury has dominated Wilder. In fact the first fight was close, and Fury had his best outing the second time.

[Combat Talk Radio]

Aight hear me out
If wilder needs to be aggressive that means he will have to get in the inside as he has a shorter reach and use hooks uppercuts to create openings.this is something he doesnt posses.Usyk has a better chance inside than Wilder does.When Wilder throws his 1 2 he straight away gets inside and gets lost and clinches to save himself.Thats why im saying judging by wilder previous performances he cant do waht your saying and be aggressive in the inside.If he can stick and move with his jab and set up the right hand then fair play but he cant do that too.
Your saying for him to be aggressive but how so if he barely follows up after his trademark Jab and Backhand

Wilder doesn't have to get all the way inside. Watch the Arreola clip. Wilder basically is fighting like Tommy Hearns did against Duran. Just punches in bunches and fast movement. Swarm the guy. Don't let him breathe.

Fury needs full extension to get full power, just like Wilder. OK, so take away his best asset. Wilder can hook with the best of them when he wants to, he CAN do uppercuts (Arreola clip), he can beat the body.

He didn't fight like the 'normal' Wilder against Fury. That's what I'm saying.

[Combat Talk Radio]

It’s possible that Wilder has developed a few new wrinkles to his game but I have serious doubts about him improving significantly. Anything can happen when two fighters get in the ring, so I never count anyone out no matter how much of a gap in skill there may be. Look what happened last night in the Charlo -Montiel fight. Everyone expected Charlotte to wipe Monticello out in 2 or 3 rounds. A fighter’s will, determination and mindset can give him a huge boost. I think Tyson Fury’s biggest strength is his mind and will. He’s very bullish, viscous and determined. Wilder has quite a bit of that dog in him too….but I think Fury’s mentality is stronger. That is what makes me predict Fury wins this fight.

Fury's mentality appears stronger because every single guy he's faced has been intimidated by his constant twitching and moving. Especially Clinchko.

But it's smoke and mirrors. As Wilder briefly demonstrated in the first fight.

As far as I can tell we don't have a heavyweight that fights like, say, Chino. That's the kind of fighter that beats Tyson Fury, and that's the kind of aggression I'm saying Wilder should use. Maybe Ruiz, and at least before he fought Arreola, I would have thought Ruiz would have a 50-50 shot at upsetting Fury just off sharp countering, especially if Ruiz came in at 220-240.

[Combat Talk Radio]

Its also largely a matter of perspective when we think of psychology here: So your Wilder's trainer, your meeting with him regrding this third fight. My points would be... "You know you can hurt him, you have been able to knock him down. You took his best at your worse. You know the worse he can do to you did not stop you." Then... "All you need is to hit him poperly, not to outbox him."

Whether this talk is true, or partially true, it is a major deterrent to the idea that Fury has dominated Wilder. In fact the first fight was close, and Fury had his best outing the second time.

Tongue-in-cheek, if I were Wilder's trainer, outside of the aggression strategy I mentioned, this would be what I'd say and likely how I'd say it:

[HanzGruber]

Wilder woulda easily won the first fight if he actually threw a straight right.

[paulf]

I mean it's a 50-50 fight. Fury shocked Wilder by starting quick, caught him, and Wilder never recovered. Acting like Fury is some unbeatable God now is silly. If the third fight opens with them both throwing bombs, its anybody's game.

[billeau2]

Wilder woulda easily won the first fight if he actually threw a straight right.

It is interesting to note that Wilder was told to straighten his punch and it looked like he did just prior to that epic knockdown.

[champion4ever]

Fury has excellent defense. Movement that makes it very difficult to reach him but also general defense that even if you do reach him, you can't land square.

Except when three things happen.

1. Fury tends to duck down when a combo is coming his way. He leaves his head vulnerable for a split second on the way back up. The only punch that could feasibly do anything is a cross or a lunging hook, because he leans backward, every time. Even Paulie called it out.

2. Fury will make every effort to avoid punches from the opponent's power hand, but just deflect or smother punches from the opposite hand.



When he fought a Ben Davidson-trained, overly defensive Fury, what got Fury dropped was a combination of #1 and #2, due to Fury's defensive style. Notice the sequence:



Fury goes to deflect what looks like a straight jab but is just a feint by Wilder, then gets nailed by that right hand, but because Fury tries to go down to smother it and lessen the impact of it, the left hook gets him on the way back up. Since he was already in backwards motion and since the left hand isn't Wilder's power hand, it wasn't going to keep Fury down. That's why Fury's eyes were wide open looking at the ref the whole time. He wasn't "knocked out". Buzzed, yes. But that's all.


But then #3...

3. Fury's defense suffers greatly when he's mid-throw. It doesn't even matter what he's throwing, he does a terrible job of defending himself while throwing a punch if the opponent is in range.

#3 is the one that I think works best in Wilder's favor against a Sugarhill Steward-trained, more aggressive Fury.


I went back and reviewed other fights. This is Fury's single Achilles heel - when he goes on the offensive, he's extremely vulnerable if the other person has enough activity and power to do something about it.

One of Tyson's early fights was Neven Pajkić - who never officially retired but who only ever lost to Tyson. The first one to put Tyson on his ass. Look at the sequence:



Pajkić was arguably robbed by a trigger ref in that fight and Fury would not agree to the rematch. Possibly because he didn't want Pajkić exploiting this weakness...?


USS Cunningham sequence. Notice - Tyson is doing the same combo, again fails to protect himself and gets nailed by (essentially) the same shot, same hand (the right).

After these two fights Fury adopted a heavily defensive fight style and wasn't dropped again...until Wilder/Fury 1.

Think about that. Deontay Wilder figured out the loophole that even Grabomir Clinchko, once considered the #1 guy in the division, couldn't figure out for Fury. Wilder couldn't exploit in the rematch because Fury basically upped the aggression and reverted back to before the shift.

But an aggressive Fury is a vulnerable Fury, if Wilder ups his aggression and lures him into a mistake.

In watching the sessions with Wilder and Malik, I believe Malik is teaching Wilder how to goad Fury into war and set him up to eat a shot just like Pajkić and Cunningham landed. If he lands the right flush like those two did and he's got full power behind it, I don't think Fury survives much longer.


Yes, this all depends on Wilder showing up with the right strategy. But it also depends on Fury being overconfident, and just like with Pajkić and Cunningham, that may very well be the game changer for a Wilder upset of the lineal champion.

Spot on! You best believe it! Sho' Ya Right!