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I watched it all back. I'm putting money on Wilder to beat Fury in the third fight. Here's why.

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  • #71
    Originally posted by revelated View Post
    Fury has excellent defense. Movement that makes it very difficult to reach him but also general defense that even if you do reach him, you can't land square.

    Except when three things happen.

    1. Fury tends to duck down when a combo is coming his way. He leaves his head vulnerable for a split second on the way back up. The only punch that could feasibly do anything is a cross or a lunging hook, because he leans backward, every time. Even Paulie called it out.

    2. Fury will make every effort to avoid punches from the opponent's power hand, but just deflect or smother punches from the opposite hand.



    When he fought a Ben Davidson-trained, overly defensive Fury, what got Fury dropped was a combination of #1 and #2, due to Fury's defensive style. Notice the sequence:

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    After these two fights Fury adopted a heavily defensive fight style and wasn't dropped again...until Wilder/Fury 1.

    Think about that. Deontay Wilder figured out the loophole that even Grabomir Clinchko, once considered the #1 guy in the division, couldn't figure out for Fury. Wilder couldn't exploit in the rematch because Fury basically upped the aggression and reverted back to before the shift.

    But an aggressive Fury is a vulnerable Fury, if Wilder ups his aggression and lures him into a mistake.

    In watching the sessions with Wilder and Malik, I believe Malik is teaching Wilder how to goad Fury into war and set him up to eat a shot just like Pajkić and Cunningham landed. If he lands the right flush like those two did and he's got full power behind it, I don't think Fury survives much longer.


    Yes, this all depends on Wilder showing up with the right strategy. But it also depends on Fury being overconfident, and just like with Pajkić and Cunningham, that may very well be the game changer for a Wilder upset of the lineal champion.
    Good luck, u and Wilder will need it. How many rounds has Wilder won in 24 rounds again?

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    • #72
      Originally posted by revelated View Post

      Fury's mentality appears stronger because every single guy he's faced has been intimidated by his constant twitching and moving. Especially Clinchko.

      But it's smoke and mirrors. [B]As Wilder briefly demonstrated in the first fight.[/B]

      As far as I can tell we don't have a heavyweight that fights like, say, Chino. That's the kind of fighter that beats Tyson Fury, and that's the kind of aggression I'm saying Wilder should use. Maybe Ruiz, and at least before he fought Arreola, I would have thought Ruiz would have a 50-50 shot at upsetting Fury just off sharp countering, especially if Ruiz came in at 220-240.
      If you’re talking about the knockdowns, I think you’re mistaken. Those knockdowns showed that Fury just gets more determined and viscous when his back is against the wall. He showed the same vitriol and viscousness after he got knocked down against Wilder as he did with Cunningham. Each time he got knocked down he paid both guys back immediately. He went straight at them and put the hurt on them. Wilder got knocked down and lost all his form and composure, Fury got knocked down and upped his composure and aggressiveness. I think Wilder has a pretty good deal of that same “will to win”, but he seems to unravel easier and he doesn’t appear to maintain his composure well unless he’s fighting a slow paced, low volume fight. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a solid chance in the third fight but I think he doesn’t have the same tenacity as Fury. They’re both crazy but Fury is crazier and also a fair bit smarter. This is heavyweight boxing, so everyone has a chance to win on any given night. There’s no sure bet on any fight, ever.
      Last edited by Damn Wicked; 06-21-2021, 02:16 AM.

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      • #73
        Originally posted by revelated View Post

        Not you too, Toffee.

        Pac/Marquez 1. What happened?

        Marquez was the champion.

        Pacquiao basically had success in the first half of the fight - enough that a case could be made that his hand should have been raised in a close, competitive match. It wasn't. It goes to a draw.


        Pac/Marquez 2. What happened?

        Pacquiao gets his hand raised. Nobody agrees with the decision, even though Marquez did coast.


        Pac/Marquez 3. What happened?

        Marquez gets straight up robbed of a victory in a fight where he clearly - clearly - showed massive improvement.


        Pac/Marquez 4. You know what happened.


        My point is, the more two guys fight, the more they learn each other, but at the end of the day, power is going to win out eventually.

        Fury called Wilder a one-trick. I would argue that Fury is a two-trick - and Wilder already figured out Defensive Fury. He's now had a very long time to evaluate and figure out Aggressive Fury. Meanwhile, Fury will (by his own admission) come in expecting Wilder to be tentative and look for the right hand again. But if Wilder comes in aggressive, I firmly believe Fury takes an L. I firmly believe it.

        Not because of Wilder. Because of Fury.
        There's a good reason Wilder hasn't gone into either fight aggressive. Fury will grab him, ragdoll him and beat him up.

        Wilder needs space to land his right hand. By his own admission he doesn't care that it's all he's got - it's all he needs. Remember? He's unashamed about that.

        Except when someone takes that right hand away - and then he's standing in the ring with nothing. Just a bloke in shorts about to take a beating in front of his family, friends and fans.

        Now don't get me wrong, if the fight actually happens then there's a chance this goes Wilder's way. And I'll piss myself laughing at Fury if that happens. But the odds are the way they are for a reason. Fury has Wilder's measure every which way.

        Comment


        • #74
          Originally posted by Damn Wicked View Post

          If you’re talking about the knockdowns, I think you’re mistaken. Those knockdowns showed that Fury just gets more determined and viscous when his back is against the wall. He showed the same vitriol and viscousness after he got knocked down against Wilder as he did with Cunningham. Each time he got knocked down he paid both guys back immediately. He went straight at them and put the hurt on them. Wilder got knocked down and lost all his form and composure, Fury got knocked down and upped his composure and aggressiveness. I think Wilder has a pretty good deal of that same “will to win”, but he seems to unravel easier and he doesn’t appear to maintain his composure well unless he’s fighting a slow paced, low volume fight. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a solid chance in the third fight but I think he doesn’t have the same tenacity as Fury. They’re both crazy but Fury is crazier and also a fair bit smarter. This is heavyweight boxing, so everyone has a chance to win on any given night. There’s no sure bet on any fight, ever.
          Completely agree with this. Wilder only has to get punched for his composure to go.

          In the rematch, towards the end of Round 2, Fury lands a right hand. It never gets replayed but it was a beautiful shot. The shot that setup everything afterwards.

          Watch Wilder. You can see his pride is hurt. He starts lunging in wildly and getting caught. There's no room for ego in the ring and Wilder's is off the chart. He's brittle. Always was.
          Damn Wicked likes this.

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          • #75
            Everyone has a punchers chance, including Wilder, so it’s not so far fetch to think he can land a punch and win. All those analysis doesn’t mean much to be honest, as Wilder isn’t that smart nor is he technically good. He can always catch Fury doe. So picking him to win and him winning isn’t a genius thing.

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            • #76
              Wilder is mentally finished and now fears fury power so won’t exchange. He still has a punchers chance but is heavy underdog

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              • #77
                Originally posted by revelated View Post
                Fury has excellent defense. Movement that makes it very difficult to reach him but also general defense that even if you do reach him, you can't land square.

                Except when three things happen.

                1. Fury tends to duck down when a combo is coming his way. He leaves his head vulnerable for a split second on the way back up. The only punch that could feasibly do anything is a cross or a lunging hook, because he leans backward, every time. Even Paulie called it out.

                2. Fury will make every effort to avoid punches from the opponent's power hand, but just deflect or smother punches from the opposite hand.



                When he fought a Ben Davidson-trained, overly defensive Fury, what got Fury dropped was a combination of #1 and #2, due to Fury's defensive style. Notice the sequence:

                [Content is Protected, Please Register For Free To Unlock This Content]




                After these two fights Fury adopted a heavily defensive fight style and wasn't dropped again...until Wilder/Fury 1.

                Think about that. Deontay Wilder figured out the loophole that even Grabomir Clinchko, once considered the #1 guy in the division, couldn't figure out for Fury. Wilder couldn't exploit in the rematch because Fury basically upped the aggression and reverted back to before the shift.

                But an aggressive Fury is a vulnerable Fury, if Wilder ups his aggression and lures him into a mistake.

                In watching the sessions with Wilder and Malik, I believe Malik is teaching Wilder how to goad Fury into war and set him up to eat a shot just like Pajkić and Cunningham landed. If he lands the right flush like those two did and he's got full power behind it, I don't think Fury survives much longer.


                Yes, this all depends on Wilder showing up with the right strategy. But it also depends on Fury being overconfident, and just like with Pajkić and Cunningham, that may very well be the game changer for a Wilder upset of the lineal champion.
                I respect that you've put some thought into this and showed us the reasons behind your decision. It's a good post with an interesting analysis of Fury's potential weaknesses. Maybe it will play out this way, but I think there's a couple of things you're relying on which are very much open to question.

                I don't think it just depends on Wilder showing up with the right strategy for instance? It involves showing up with the right strategy and being able to execute it in the face of whatever's coming back from across the ring. Team Wilder can make any preparations they like, they still have to cope with an opponent who has twice outboxed Deontay with two completely different approaches. Will Sugar Hill and Fury have been idle in their camp, or is it reasonable to assume they'll have some new tricks to show also? Can Wilder make adjustments within the fight itself? Can he box on the back foot when required to? Were the names on his resume good preparation for a challenge like Tyson Fury? At 35, is it likely that a novice trainer can make significant changes to his fighters approach and have those changes stick once the bell starts? There's a lot of questions on Wilder even before you look at the mental side, the effect that brutal beatdown will have had on both his confidence and the aura that surrounded him up to the first Fury fight.

                As others have said, he has real heavyweight power in that right hand and thus he has a chance in any fight he's involved in. I think Fury has demonstrated he's the better man, but if they were to fight 10 times in a row I'd back Wilder to take 2 or 3 of them just on the offchance that he lands flush and Fury isn't able to make the count. If the judging is on par with their fight at the Staples centre he'd maybe take home a questionable decision on cards also. So you may see a return on your money and if he does KO Fury then kudos to him for coming back. The questions about him will still remain though. It will only be the third time since he beat Stiverne that he's faced a credible top 5 opponent in his prime and a win in the third would still have him 2-1 down on many boxing fans cards, even if the official score would be 1-1-1.

                If your bet comes through kudos to you also!

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                • #78
                  he changed a lot in the 2nd fight

                  he didnt do the ducking down

                  and he knows wilder is gonna throw the right when the right hand is below the chin so he occupies wilders right glove with the feinting, jabbing and probing

                  wilder mentally looks like hes not in a good place, and fury is gonna come out, wilder is gonna throw some right hands and fall short and fury is gonna batter him again

                  not sure why malik scott being in wilders corner is a big factor, hes been in the camp for ages. they werent allowed to speak any strategy? bs

                  Comment


                  • #79
                    Originally posted by revelated View Post

                    He said it in that first video, that he needed to talk less. Malik also implied that Wilder lost focus on boxing and needed to get that back. If that means not fall for Fury's mind games so be it.

                    Worked for Steve Collins against Eubank in the first fight.
                    I get that, I just don't agree with it. I think it's a romanticized version of what really seems to be going on. Talking less is very different than not talking at all and wearing headphones to the press conference.

                    Comment


                    • #80
                      Originally posted by Zaryu View Post

                      I get that, I just don't agree with it. I think it's a romanticized version of what really seems to be going on. Talking less is very different than not talking at all and wearing headphones to the press conference.
                      He is talking doe. Just to his cultists who are with his narratives. I mean I hear Joshua always saying talk less etc and when he says that then Wilder speaks even louder and annotate it to Joshua being “Scared” etc… Love how he is now the advocate for “Not talking”

                      Fact is he knows he can’t outtalk Fury, he isn’t as smart as Fury nor can he put an articulate sentence together, he was talking about Whyte being “Gay” which pretty much summons him up when asked about competition/rivals.

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