I watched it all back. I'm putting money on Wilder to beat Fury in the third fight. Here's why.

[Curt Henning]

you deserve to be insulted..youre a ****ing dunce

[Combat Talk Radio]

Bet on Wilder and you'll lose everything. He's totally ****ed

Just like Joshua was after he lost. Right?

[Pac=Duran]

Just like Joshua was after he lost. Right?

Wilder lost to Fury twice though. The first Fury vs Wilder fight Fury was about 40% of max potential and he still whipped Beyonce.

Beyonce can't win. Watch the Face Off. Wilder is a mental midget who has already given up.

[buge]

Wilder can win, but he's got a puncher's chance, and that's it.

[Combat Talk Radio]

Wilder lost to Fury twice though. The first Fury vs Wilder fight Fury was about 40% of max potential and he still whipped Beyonce.

Beyonce can't win. Watch the Face Off. Wilder is a mental midget who has already given up.

Have we not learned from history?

Those who are quiet, calm and focused usually come out the victor.


Mayweather/Ortiz

Hopkins/Pascal

Cotto/Margacheato 2

Canelo/Cintron

Ward/Kov 2

Pac/Bradley 3

etc etc etc.

[snowdog]

There are a couple of important things that you're missing:

1) Fury's brain is wired differently. That knockdown in round 9 should have completely screwed his equilibrium. But he got up without a wobble. Same when he was knocked spark out for a few seconds in round 12. Knocking him DOWN is easy enough, the problem is knocking him OUT.


2) Wilder is BROKEN. Psychologically he just isn't up to it. Have a look at the exclusive interview that Wilder did with the Mo Boxing. At the 10m 52s mark, he comes out with his usual 'I only have to be perfect for 2 seconds' schpiel finishing off with that big fake smile of his, when the interviewer mentions Fury saying that he has his soul in his pocket. His face immediately drops. You can clearly see the fear in his eyes and he starts stuttering and stammering like Foghorn Leghorn. He then realises that he's lost it and tries covering it all up with that fake smile of his.

You can see the clip here:

https://********/FG-Gr6NkPV4?t=652s

Wilder has always got a puncher's chance but due to number 2 above I don't think he's going to get the chance to use it because the bloke is still psychologically scarred from the beating he took in the second fight, and because he knows that Fury took his best shots in the first fight and got up without a wobble.

I just can't see Wilder pulling it off.

[Pac=Duran]

Have we not learned from history?

Those who are quiet, calm and focused usually come out the victor.


Mayweather/Ortiz

Hopkins/Pascal

Cotto/Margacheato 2

Canelo/Cintron

Ward/Kov 2

Pac/Bradley 3

etc etc etc.

Might be able to make this point is Wilder didn't immediately go crying to every scumbag youtuber he could find right after his strong silent type show at the press conference

[billeau2]

Fury has excellent defense. Movement that makes it very difficult to reach him but also general defense that even if you do reach him, you can't land square.

Except when three things happen.

1. Fury tends to duck down when a combo is coming his way. He leaves his head vulnerable for a split second on the way back up. The only punch that could feasibly do anything is a cross or a lunging hook, because he leans backward, every time. Even Paulie called it out.

2. Fury will make every effort to avoid punches from the opponent's power hand, but just deflect or smother punches from the opposite hand.



When he fought a Ben Davidson-trained, overly defensive Fury, what got Fury dropped was a combination of #1 and #2, due to Fury's defensive style. Notice the sequence:



Fury goes to deflect what looks like a straight jab but is just a feint by Wilder, then gets nailed by that right hand, but because Fury tries to go down to smother it and lessen the impact of it, the left hook gets him on the way back up. Since he was already in backwards motion and since the left hand isn't Wilder's power hand, it wasn't going to keep Fury down. That's why Fury's eyes were wide open looking at the ref the whole time. He wasn't "knocked out". Buzzed, yes. But that's all.


But then #3...

3. Fury's defense suffers greatly when he's mid-throw. It doesn't even matter what he's throwing, he does a terrible job of defending himself while throwing a punch if the opponent is in range.

#3 is the one that I think works best in Wilder's favor against a Sugarhill Steward-trained, more aggressive Fury.


I went back and reviewed other fights. This is Fury's single Achilles heel - when he goes on the offensive, he's extremely vulnerable if the other person has enough activity and power to do something about it.

One of Tyson's early fights was Neven Pajkić - who never officially retired but who only ever lost to Tyson. The first one to put Tyson on his ass. Look at the sequence:



Pajkić was arguably robbed by a trigger ref in that fight and Fury would not agree to the rematch. Possibly because he didn't want Pajkić exploiting this weakness...?


USS Cunningham sequence. Notice - Tyson is doing the same combo, again fails to protect himself and gets nailed by (essentially) the same shot, same hand (the right).

After these two fights Fury adopted a heavily defensive fight style and wasn't dropped again...until Wilder/Fury 1.

Think about that. Deontay Wilder figured out the loophole that even Grabomir Clinchko, once considered the #1 guy in the division, couldn't figure out for Fury. Wilder couldn't exploit in the rematch because Fury basically upped the aggression and reverted back to before the shift.

But an aggressive Fury is a vulnerable Fury, if Wilder ups his aggression and lures him into a mistake.

In watching the sessions with Wilder and Malik, I believe Malik is teaching Wilder how to goad Fury into war and set him up to eat a shot just like Pajkić and Cunningham landed. If he lands the right flush like those two did and he's got full power behind it, I don't think Fury survives much longer.


Yes, this all depends on Wilder showing up with the right strategy. But it also depends on Fury being overconfident, and just like with Pajkić and Cunningham, that may very well be the game changer for a Wilder upset of the lineal champion.

If I had to take your data and refine it into a universal and simple observation I would say "Fury loops his punches." When you loop your shot, a straight punch will get there first given all other factors being equal. I have noticed some guys just have a natural loop. The old timers would often loop the cross from above the shoulder. Marciano was a nototious looper. Its not all bad... But it is something that can be exploited.

You can see that Fury is aware when he is going to get drilled... His face and body say "Incoming!" with a grimace lol. This is why he often gets dropped but gets up.

On whether Wilder can exploit this Fury Foible: couple of things to remember here... fury loops his power shots but fires his jab relatively straight...though his elbows flair a lot... like Margarito lol. Like he is pushing it out. Its hard to get past that jab, if I was coaching a fighter, I would actually have them do a Martial arts trick and punch to Fury's elbow on the jab, double up with that shot, to take advantage of that weak positioning.

Fury tends to attack when he has his man moving backwards. So Wilder would have to goad him quite a bit. Fury also will be trying to move inside to damage Wilder...And thats a real danger to Wilder.

Great tape and observations.

[billeau2]

Wilder can't learn how to fight backwards overnight, and nothing so far has suggested he can.
On the flip side, Fury only had a couple of months last time with Sugar Hill... He's now had a full 18 months of Kronk.
So IMO, Wilder folds as soon as a decent punch lands and Fury KOs Wilder in the first half of the fight, and I will certainly be putting my money where my mouth is.

The "fighting Backwards" is crucial. Its very hard to do for any fighter. God gave geometry to the fighting man to create angles, and Hermes gave the gift of fast feet, to keep a beat ahead of a charging adversary...but a lot of these technical skills are lacking in today's Ammy trained fighters, some of whom look like they are fighting off a fencing strip.

[billeau2]

Wilder can win, but he's got a puncher's chance, and that's it.

People all use this expression... Its become like the burocrat who is called to speak after government did something horrid, and in every other sentence is the damn word "accountability." Like if you say it enough every other idiot can nod in agreement while never ever being accountable, responsible for anything.

A "Puncher's chance" is misused. First of all, I could take plenty of hard punchers and put them in a ring with a boxer... and there would be no chance. Punchers are skilled, they are not idiots looking for a hail mary. And Wilder, regardless of what one thinks of him, has shown he can stay in the ring with the best this epoche can offer, of heavyweight fighters. This takes skills. Punchers learn to set up and make opportunities to unload their punches, no chance about it.

Wilder has more than a puncher's chance... I think fury wins, I am a big fan of Fury... But Wilder is a live dog.