I watched it all back. I'm putting money on Wilder to beat Fury in the third fight. Here's why.

[TMT_HEAT]

I've seen every reason why Wilder lost to Fury in the 2nd fight except the real reason. HE GOT HIS ASS BEAT.

Much like in the first fight it will come down to whether Wilder can put Fury down and if he will stay down.

[Combat Talk Radio]

Might be able to make this point is Wilder didn't immediately go crying to every scumbag youtuber he could find right after his strong silent type show at the press conference

He went to Elie Seckbach, who race baited him into saying whatever.

You didn't hear Wilder go screaming at Raheem "TILL THIS DAY!!" or threatening to catch a body on the record. Just a little decapitation (and everyone illogically losing their minds when he said it even though Tyson has talked about eating children and "F you till you love me f******!!!")

[eco1]

Fury has excellent defense. Movement that makes it very difficult to reach him but also general defense that even if you do reach him, you can't land square.

Except when three things happen.

1. Fury tends to duck down when a combo is coming his way. He leaves his head vulnerable for a split second on the way back up. The only punch that could feasibly do anything is a cross or a lunging hook, because he leans backward, every time. Even Paulie called it out.

2. Fury will make every effort to avoid punches from the opponent's power hand, but just deflect or smother punches from the opposite hand.



When he fought a Ben Davidson-trained, overly defensive Fury, what got Fury dropped was a combination of #1 and #2, due to Fury's defensive style. Notice the sequence:



Fury goes to deflect what looks like a straight jab but is just a feint by Wilder, then gets nailed by that right hand, but because Fury tries to go down to smother it and lessen the impact of it, the left hook gets him on the way back up. Since he was already in backwards motion and since the left hand isn't Wilder's power hand, it wasn't going to keep Fury down. That's why Fury's eyes were wide open looking at the ref the whole time. He wasn't "knocked out". Buzzed, yes. But that's all.


But then #3...

3. Fury's defense suffers greatly when he's mid-throw. It doesn't even matter what he's throwing, he does a terrible job of defending himself while throwing a punch if the opponent is in range.

#3 is the one that I think works best in Wilder's favor against a Sugarhill Steward-trained, more aggressive Fury.


I went back and reviewed other fights. This is Fury's single Achilles heel - when he goes on the offensive, he's extremely vulnerable if the other person has enough activity and power to do something about it.

One of Tyson's early fights was Neven Pajkić - who never officially retired but who only ever lost to Tyson. The first one to put Tyson on his ass. Look at the sequence:



Pajkić was arguably robbed by a trigger ref in that fight and Fury would not agree to the rematch. Possibly because he didn't want Pajkić exploiting this weakness...?


USS Cunningham sequence. Notice - Tyson is doing the same combo, again fails to protect himself and gets nailed by (essentially) the same shot, same hand (the right).

After these two fights Fury adopted a heavily defensive fight style and wasn't dropped again...until Wilder/Fury 1.

Think about that. Deontay Wilder figured out the loophole that even Grabomir Clinchko, once considered the #1 guy in the division, couldn't figure out for Fury. Wilder couldn't exploit in the rematch because Fury basically upped the aggression and reverted back to before the shift.

But an aggressive Fury is a vulnerable Fury, if Wilder ups his aggression and lures him into a mistake.

In watching the sessions with Wilder and Malik, I believe Malik is teaching Wilder how to goad Fury into war and set him up to eat a shot just like Pajkić and Cunningham landed. If he lands the right flush like those two did and he's got full power behind it, I don't think Fury survives much longer.


Yes, this all depends on Wilder showing up with the right strategy. But it also depends on Fury being overconfident, and just like with Pajkić and Cunningham, that may very well be the game changer for a Wilder upset of the lineal champion.

All good points but for that he needs to have an adversary, let's say, AJ.
Wilder is not going to win.

[Combat Talk Radio]

If I had to take your data and refine it into a universal and simple observation I would say "Fury loops his punches." When you loop your shot, a straight punch will get there first given all other factors being equal. I have noticed some guys just have a natural loop. The old timers would often loop the cross from above the shoulder. Marciano was a nototious looper. Its not all bad... But it is something that can be exploited.

You can see that Fury is aware when he is going to get drilled... His face and body say "Incoming!" with a grimace lol. This is why he often gets dropped but gets up.

On whether Wilder can exploit this Fury Foible: couple of things to remember here... fury loops his power shots but fires his jab relatively straight...though his elbows flair a lot... like Margarito lol. Like he is pushing it out. Its hard to get past that jab, if I was coaching a fighter, I would actually have them do a Martial arts trick and punch to Fury's elbow on the jab, double up with that shot, to take advantage of that weak positioning.

Fury tends to attack when he has his man moving backwards. So Wilder would have to goad him quite a bit. Fury also will be trying to move inside to damage Wilder...And thats a real danger to Wilder.

Great tape and observations.

Right - but when you see punches coming and you just brace to take the shot?

That works against guys like Cunningham that don't really have knockout power.

That's why I said, I think the reason Fury was able to deal with Wilder has everything to do with the way he evades the right hand but absorbs the left, because he knows that Wilder can't knockout with the left (he has, but it's not his go-to and it's harder to do for him).

I'm saying what you're saying, which is to set enough of a trap to basically catch Fury mid-throw with the right hand, which yes, means Wilder has to go into firefight mode if Fury is in attack mode, but I don't think Wilder will be in as much danger if he can manage to do that in the first or second round.

I also like what you're suggesting with touching the arm to force Fury to move it and then nail him. Manny Steward used to suggest that strategy against a taller fighter.

From my eye, what got him bamboozled in the second fight is that he landed the right but Fury didn't move because he was prepared for it, and it demoralized him. That's what can't happen. He has to expect that Fury will smother the shot if he can't evade it, WHICH IS WHY HE HAS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE. Fury stops evading when he's trying to smother shots.

To me that's the key. That's what I'm saying - force Fury to stop moving and just worry about landing on him. That's easier to do if Fury is aggressive.

It's like Spence. He doesn't worry about what's coming at him, he'll take punches to land his own and he's taken punishment yet came out on top because his aggression was cleaner. That's the strategy I see working best for Deontay Wilder.

[Combat Talk Radio]

All good points but for that he needs to have an adversary, let's say, AJ.
Wilder is not going to win.

I'm not saying it's a sure bet, I'm saying it's not a sure bet that Fury wins. It depends on how good of a trainer Malik is, which we don't know.

People really need to go back and compare Wilder's fight style against someone like Molina (arguably one of the best performers against Wilder) to how he fought Fury BOTH times.

Wilder was way more aggressive against Molina. He used his aggression as his defense. He got clipped but never stopped going forward, and that caused Molina to make critical mistakes that allowed Wilder to land shots through and around the guard.

Molina doesn't evade like Fury does. But Sugarhill Steward-trained Fury doesn't evade nearly as much. That's why I honestly feel aggression is the answer for Wilder, not being passive and tentative.

What we all don't know is whether Wilder will come in aggressive or not, and we don't know how Fury will deal with that kind of pressure.

What we do know is that the two guys I shared, who were aggressive against Fury, dropped him.

[leeroy84]

The "fighting Backwards" is crucial. Its very hard to do for any fighter. God gave geometry to the fighting man to create angles, and Hermes gave the gift of fast feet, to keep a beat ahead of a charging adversary...but a lot of these technical skills are lacking in today's Ammy trained fighters, some of whom look like they are fighting off a fencing strip.

Well put.
I personally do not think it is a trait that one can learn in such a short space of time, if you "ain't got it", it would take years surely(?).
It comes with drilling & experience (and a smidge of mental aptitude), to counter an adversary properly, you need to be able to expect whats coming. I'm not saying it can't be learnt quickly, but it's alot more difficult than people think.
Theres a difference between throwing back when under attack, and striking effectively under pressure.
Love or hate him, Floyd was a (maybe the) master of it.

I just honestly think Wilder can't possibly of adjusted so dramatically, in the space between the last fight and this.

He has to land the hail mary, and that's all I think he has left right now.

[PRINCEKOOL]

Tyson Fury since he stopped training with Peter Fury, is there to be hit.

Of course at 6"9, most fighters are going to have a difficult time finding him 'But does that really mean he has a great defense? Is being awkward and bamboozling really a great defense?'.

Tyson Fury squares up on the inside, at at times can have bouts of extremely clumsiness. Under Peter Fury, Tyson Fury used 'The Riddler' Style which maximizes his physical attributes in order to bamboozle and confuse his opponent.

Fury since Wilder I, has been there to be hit. His defense, is not on the level in my opinion? Of the great defensive fighters of all time. Wilder due to his inability to throw straight punches, or short explosive combinations, has distorted people's perceptions when it comes to Fury's defense.

I will not state that Wilder is going to win, but I will say this? Tyson Fury is going to be hit not just once, but I think he will be hit in every single round.

People seem to forget? Tyson Fury spent 80% of his career being banged about and decked 'On the inside, I honestly think his defense is completely overrated'.

Where is defense is strong is from a distance, controlling distance and being awkward' With his former Riddler Style.

[Pac=Duran]

He went to Elie Seckbach, who race baited him into saying whatever.

You didn't hear Wilder go screaming at Raheem "TILL THIS DAY!!" or threatening to catch a body on the record. Just a little decapitation (and everyone illogically losing their minds when he said it even though Tyson has talked about eating children and "F you till you love me f******!!!")

Not just Seckbah but he recorded an hour long interview with the king of race baiters that barber shop guy

[leeroy84]

Tyson Fury since he stopped training with Peter Fury, is there to be hit.

Of course at 6"9, most fighters are going to have a difficult time finding him 'But does that really mean he has a great defense? Is being awkward and bamboozling really a great defense?'.

Tyson Fury squares up on the inside, at at times can have bouts of extremely clumsiness. Under Peter Fury, Tyson Fury used 'The Riddler' Style which maximizes his physical attributes in order to bamboozle and confuse his opponent.

Fury since Wilder I, has been there to be hit. His defense, is not on the level in my opinion? Of the great defensive fighters of all time. Wilder due to his inability to throw straight punches, or short explosive combinations, has distorted people's perceptions when it comes to Fury's defense.

I will not state that Wilder is going to win, but I will say this? Tyson Fury is going to be hit not just once, but I think he will be hit in every single round.

People seem to forget? Tyson Fury spent 80% of his career being banged about and decked 'On the inside, I honestly think his defense is completely overrated'.

Where is defense is strong is from a distance, controlling distance and being awkward' With his former Riddler Style.

Agree with your principle, but Peter wasn't there last time around either.
Was he hit last time every round? Yes...
Did it matter? No.

It will take someone with more guile than Wilder to get to Fury properly (he did catch him in the 1st, but that was a poor slow fat apprehensive Fury).

It's AJ or Usyk who have a "chance" of getting to Fury IMO, more so Usyk.

Wilder has to come swinging and hope to land his money shot (I wont ever say lucky shot, theres no luck in boxing). But I think it will be Wilders undoing as he regresses back to where he was in Feb 2020

[Toffee]

I like the analysis, but this fight is pretty simple.

Fury is a massive favourite because he has outboxed Wilder twice with two different styles. He's had the answers twice now. The odds are that he has too much again regardless of what type of fight it is.

If Wilder can catch Fury clean then he can win. It's still just a puncher's chance, no matter how considered that punch may be.

Any chance I gave Wilder has diminished though. He needs something special to win a fight he's a massive outsider for. And he's getting trained by his mate, in his garage. He's not giving himself the best chance.