I doubt Usyk would be 2 division champion in any other era

[billeau2]

The massively overrated Ali would have virtually no chance against Usyk if we're objective, which 80-90% of boxing fans are not.

1966 Ali vs 2018 Usyk

Ali: 24 years old, started boxing at age 12, 88 confirmed amateur bouts with a record of 80-8 (3 rounders, 247 rounds max), 25 pro (144 rounds contested), stopped 9 pro opponents who were 197+ lbs

Usyk: 31 years old, started boxing at age 15, 350 amateur bouts with a record of 335-15 (3-4 rounders, 1076-1332 rounds max), 6 WSB (25 rounds contested), 14 pro (105 rounds contested), stopped 11 WSB/pro opponents who were 197+ lbs (pre-rehydration)

Ali had been knocked down from head shots twice in the previous 15 fights/4.5 years (Sonny Banks, Henry Cooper), was almost exclusively a head hunter, hadn’t fought a southpaw in 6 years, had lost to at least two southpaws in the amateurs (Kent Green by TKO2, Amos Johnson by SD3), 2013 Usyk was heavier than 28/33 of Ali’s pre-Mathis opponents (Ali himself was very big for his era) and as much as 9 lbs heavier than 1966 Ali, who had gone the distance with 5 of his 25 pro opponents (17-9-1 186 lbs Hunsaker, 15-11-1 225 lbs Sabedong, 18-7 189 lbs Johnson, 23-3-1 188 lbs Jones, 34-11-2 216 lbs Chuvalo), whereas Usyk (the best southpaw heavyweight of all time) hasn’t been stopped or dropped with a headshot in a combined total of 377 fights, amateur and pro and has an IQ which is almost certainly at least two standard deviations above Ali’s (78).

1966 Ali had a highly competitive fight with 49-2-3 European champion southpaw Mildenberger over 11.5 rounds (Ali admitted that he found Mildenberger’s stance and boxing ability very difficult to deal with), who was billed as being 6’1.5 with a 73 inch reach and 195 lbs (4-3-1 in non-KD rounds according to two of the three judges, 154-144 punches landed out of 612-538 thrown according to Compubox; by contrast Usyk outlanded the 6’2, 79.5 inch reach, 198 lbs, undefeated American Olympian Hunter 321-190, throwing 905-794 over 12 rounds). Mildenberger had been KO’d twice (once in the 1st round by 30-12-2, 201 lbs **** Richardson, who had 2 stoppage wins in his previous 9 fights) and dropped numerous times in 54 pro fights, registered a 31% KO ratio with 0 KO’s in his previous 5 fights and had a 52-12 amateur record, with winning the German LHW championship being his best amateur accomplishment.

A more skilled, mature, durable and experienced 1973 Ali lost by a wide margin (117-112 Boxrec consensus, 233-171 punches landed according to Compubox) to Ken Norton: a suspect-chinned boxer with a padded 29-1 record and only 8 years of boxing experience since his amateur debut, who took up boxing in his early 20’s and had never been in a 12 rounder prior to facing Ali.

Usyk has studied Ali extensively, sparred and beaten many opponents influenced by him and has modern advantages in terms of training and "nutrition", as well as a tougher upbringing being from a working-class family in post-Soviet Ukraine, with a modern Eastern European style that Ali never experienced (the old Soviet school was limited to the amateurs in those days).

Ali’s objective chance = sub-5%.

You make no sense...

Amatuer fighting has a rather ambivalent relationship to professional prize fighting... No direct correlation. Ali got knocked down? Ali also demonstrated one of the best chins in boxing... whats the point?

I have no problem with someone making a cogent argument that Ali would lose to Usyk... But NOT for those two reasons.

[NEETzschean]

You make no sense...

Amatuer fighting has a rather ambivalent relationship to professional prize fighting... No direct correlation. Ali got knocked down? Ali also demonstrated one of the best chins in boxing... whats the point?

I have no problem with someone making a cogent argument that Ali would lose to Usyk... But NOT for those two reasons.

Amateur pedigree matters and chins matter. They aren't absolute arguments in themselves but they are part of it.

[NEETzschean]

Nice copy pasta. That supposed "objective chance" is pseudoscience based on nothing.

It's my work. Watch the Mildenberger fight. Ali was a great fighter in the 60's/70's but he's absurdly overhyped today.

[billeau2]

Amateur pedigree matters and chins matter. They aren't absolute arguments in themselves but they are part of it.

Agreed, read my post carefully. I said amatuer fighting "bares an ambivalent relationship" to professional prize fighting. This means that sometimes it tells us a lot, other times not so much... It depends on the amatuer program, the fighter, the time, etc. There is no cause and effect relationship between a great amatuer and a great professional... I would argue there is a casual relationship whereby succesful amatuer fighters do at least reasonably well as professionals... Cuban fighters usually have relatively succesful careers as professionals (for example). But as far as greatness? For every Ray Robinson, Roy Jones, is a Big John Tate...

And I did not say chin was not important! I questioned your proof that a fighter that is known for having one of the best chins in boxing, was lacking. Ali took monster shots from some of the hardest hitting heavyweights in history... But you think a few knockdowns matter? No. And lets give you the benefit of the doubt and say for some magical reason Ali had a bad chin... (preposterous but devil's advocate) Usyk is going to tap that chin? That to you would be the way Usyk beats Ali? Think about it.

[dan-b]

It's my work. Watch the Mildenberger fight. Ali was a great fighter in the 60's/70's but he's absurdly overhyped today.

Today's fighters get more overhyped in my opinion. Seems to be a millenial/social media thing to declare someone/something GOAT based on very little.

Ali was a clear, consistent and active champion. Came through two epic encounters in the Rumble in the Jungle and Thrilla in Manila, the latter being a hellacious battle, in intense heat, that most can barely comprehend much less compete in. I rate Lennox Lewis highly but I doubt even he would come through something like that.

There's no hype about it, the real hype is reserved for today's semi-retired beltholders and their clown show.

[billeau2]

It's my work. Watch the Mildenberger fight. Ali was a great fighter in the 60's/70's but he's absurdly overhyped today.

If I could knock Ali down... If my little sister could knock Ali down... What would it matter if he always got back up? WHO ever KO'ed Ali? How many fights did he lose by KO?

If you were talking about a fighter like Jones, who simply did not get hit, it would be different.

[crimsonfalcon07]

IMO I don't think Fury needs to walk Usyk down... If you take Fury's reach advantage, and then consider how well Fury fights off his back leg, He literally has two sword lengths of distance to react to anything Usyk does. Keeping in mind that Usyk is not a fighter who is used to having shorter length... unlike Canelo for example... And Fury fights off his back leg better than most heavyweights ever did.

It would be like you and me getting ready to fight and I have a six foot staff to hit you with. I simply cannot see how Usyke overcomes this... Fury jabs him into oblivion.

I think a lot of Usyk's chance comes in how Fury intends to fight him. Is he going to fight in his new Kronk style and come in heavy? Because I think he will do that for the Ngannou farce, and he won't have time to change much for Usyk. I think he's going to try to come forward and be a weight bully, and will be very heavy footed. We haven't seen him fight in the way you describe in years. It doesn't sound like Fury is taking it seriously either.

[NEETzschean]

Agreed, read my post carefully. I said amatuer fighting "bares an ambivalent relationship" to professional prize fighting. This means that sometimes it tells us a lot, other times not so much... It depends on the amatuer program, the fighter, the time, etc. There is no cause and effect relationship between a great amatuer and a great professional... I would argue there is a casual relationship whereby succesful amatuer fighters do at least reasonably well as professionals... Cuban fighters usually have relatively succesful careers as professionals (for example). But as far as greatness? For every Ray Robinson, Roy Jones, is a Big John Tate...

And I did not say chin was not important! I questioned your proof that a fighter that is known for having one of the best chins in boxing, was lacking. Ali took monster shots from some of the hardest hitting heavyweights in history... But you think a few knockdowns matter? No. And lets give you the benefit of the doubt and say for some magical reason Ali had a bad chin... (preposterous but devil's advocate) Usyk is going to tap that chin? That to you would be the way Usyk beats Ali? Think about it.

It's just a lot of waffle.

Count how many Olympic medallists are in the top 8:

https://www.heavyweightboxing.com/rankings

The only ones who aren't (Fury and Anderson) turned pro very early relatively speaking and were good youth amateurs themselves.

Mildenberger being "German LHW champion" as an amateur is objectively far inferior to Usyk's Olympic and World Championship gold. His 64 amateur fights is far inferior pedigree to Usyk's 350 + 6 WSB. His European title is far inferior to Usyk's undisputed world cruiser and unified heavy world titles. That's before we go into the fact that athletes in all sports have improved over the last 50-60 years and Usyk was studied Ali extensively. It's a mismatch.

I also question whether Liston and Foreman, small heavyweights by todays standards, were big punchers in modern terms. Further, the more mature, heavier Ali had a better chin than younger Ali (Ali was never dropped at 30+, whereas he was KO'd in the amateurs and dropped a few times earlier in his pro career).

I expect that Usyk would either beat Ali by wide/shutout UD or a late fatigue-based stoppage.

[NEETzschean]

If I could knock Ali down... If my little sister could knock Ali down... What would it matter if he always got back up? WHO ever KO'ed Ali? How many fights did he lose by KO?

If you were talking about a fighter like Jones, who simply did not get hit, it would be different.

He got KO'd in the amateurs, was saved from a KO against 185 lbs Cooper by DQ-worthy corner work and was stopped late in his career by Holmes.

The point I was making isn't that Usyk would KO Ali (though I think he would stop him, or batter him to a wide UD), it's that Usyk has a better chin than Ali, hence Usyk hasn't been dropped with a headshot in 377 career fights, even against behemoths that did not exist in Ali's day.

[NEETzschean]

If you pick out the worst performances in anyone's career you can come up with negatives. I'm sure Jesus lost lots of arguments with his mother; that didn't make him a chump.

I don't think it was a bad performance from Ali, he just didn't know how to deal with southpaws. But he couldn't be expected to as there were so few around back then and even modern fighters with a lot of southpaw experience struggle. Joe Louis openly admitted that he would never fight one. Holmes was KO'd twice by a journeyman southpaw in the amateurs etc. Lewis, Bowe and Tyson never fought any.