A Guarantee - Roy Jones Won’t Beat Joe Calzaghe

[mspiegelo]

i severely doubt roy will win, but i wouldn't say NO chance.

IF roy wins, i will be absolutely elated, though, and I would hate to be the ******* who gave him no chance, in that case....

[Smokin'J]

Why are you guys so certain about him losing?
I mean if you know the history of boxing, how can you say one WILL lose for a fact since there were so many things people didn't give a chance and yet it failed.
In a nutshell, Roy the underdog we know, but something might happen what we didn't predict.

[Hitman932]

Why are you guys so certain about him losing?
I mean if you know the history of boxing, how can you say one WILL lose for a fact since there were so many things people didn't give a chance and yet it failed.
In a nutshell, Roy the underdog we know, but something might happen what we didn't predict.

boxing is often unpredictable but in this fight we have two very well known commodities.

[Stickman]

Why are you guys so certain about him losing?
I mean if you know the history of boxing, how can you say one WILL lose for a fact since there were so many things people didn't give a chance and yet it failed.
In a nutshell, Roy the underdog we know, but something might happen what we didn't predict.

Yep, that's what makes it all worth watching, eh?

Everybody knows Roy has a chance. Not a big one, but a chance. If it were someone who didn't have a frigging iron chin, I'd give him a 50/50 chance, but it isn't, and I can't. He can't take a decision against Calzaghe over 12 rounds if he works enough to win at least 7. If he tries, he'll gas late and get TKO'd in the championship rounds. His only chance is to TKO Calzaghe, which I put at around a 15% chance of him pulling it off, give or take a little. Sometimes I feel like it's closer to 20%, sometimes 10%. Whatever the case, it's about the only way he can beat Joe. And if he spends the energy trying to knock Joe out and fails, he gets TKO'd probably around the 8th. If it were a 10 round fight, I'd give Roy a 75% chance of taking a decision home, if his conditioning were as good as possible with his body type and age. But even in his prime, Roy wouldn't have been capable of the type of conditioning Calzaghe is. Wrong body type. And to be honest, I don't really believe Roy truly pushes himself during his roadwork/conditioning, probably never has.

Anyway, that's my take on it....again. WOnder how many times I've given my opinion on how this fight will play out? One thing's for sure....enough times that it won't be any problem for some RJJ fan (of which I'm certainly one myself) to find a half dozen of them, punt 'em to the top, and make me look like a complete and utter moron, should Roy SOMEHOW manage to win this by UD. You betcha.

[Smokin'J]

Thanks, for your opinion sounds about kinda right.

[jayhova29]

STYLES make fights, Roy has a chance.

There are some points to this article that I agree with. I agree that part of that prime Roy that we were use to seeing was left laying on the ground in the Johnson fight. I agree that he laughed and pathetically showboated his way to survive the 3rd Tarver fight. And I also agree that the Trinidad fight as good as he looked or shall I say "looked recently" he was fighting a fighter that he was physically bigger than. Personally, I feel he should of and could of knocked Trinidad out. The old Roy would of. However, I disagree with the notion that Calzaghe somehow, after his wins over guys like Kessler, Lacy, and Hopkins is the guy people are over looking. There style's alone I think will clash and if that happens then Roy has a equal and legitimate chance to win. A lot of roy's strengths fall right into Calzaghe's weaknesses. For example, his straight right hand, and the tendency Calzaghe has to lead with his chin when he gets careless. It didnt even look like Bernard put all of his power behind that right he stuck out there in self defense that he dropped Joe with. If anything, Bernard might of showed that Joe's chin might be a bit overrated, though that remains to be seen. And Im going to humor myself and not dare insinuate that the reason Calzaghe didnt throw the 800-1200 punches we're use to seeing was because of the style of Bernard Hopkins and not good ole mother nature catching up to him too. Like his punch output hasnt dropped a bit. I think its going to be difficult for Roy to adjust to the south paw speed of Calzaghe however, its going to be equally as difficult for Calzaghe to deal with the right hand leads and body shots from Roy. Call me crazy if you want, but its hard to throw 80-100 punches a round when your going to get hit half that many times by a guy who has better "accurate" speed than you with more power. I mean Calzaghe looks good when he throws his 3-5 punch combinations or goes on his little 8-10 punch unanswered furies, but when you really look half of those shots hit the opponent flush and rarely with any momentum swinging power. When Roy throws his combinations he hits you with at least half of them and there solid, crisp, accurate punches. I agree Roy left some of his skill, speed, and athletiscm, in the ring in the Glen Johnson fight, but the most important thing he left in the ring was in his 2nd Tarver fight, and that was his confidence. At first, everybody was dissing Calzaghe for choosing Roy as an opponent, Roy was and to a lot of people still is a washed up fighter, fighting for his legacy and last big payday to cement his place in boxing history that Calzaghe is suppose to dominate b4 riding off in the sunset to retire. Most boxing observers like myself felt he should of fought Kelly Pavlik however I never thought Roy was going to be a shoe in for Calzaghe to beat, and now that Pavlik was exposed by Hopkins we should be thankful that Calzaghe is fighting this legend. With that being said there are a couple of other factors than can come into play to help favor Roy . Roy has better defense which is going to help him tremendously. Fighting Hopkins on foreign soil after the ignorant "white boy" statement made Calzaghe the American favorite but only for that particular fight. Joe's use to fighting in front of sold out stadiums with 25,000-50,000 fans. He's going to be the betting favorite but for once the crowd "underdog" a role Im curious to see how he's going to handle once the going gets rough, the fans are not all on your side and every 3minutes you have your dad (looking like Pepe La Pew, from Bugz Bunny) yelling in your face going to respond to that adversity. The author was on point with some of his points but if he thinks that Jones doesnt have a chance to beat Calzaghe I hope whatever he's smoking he has enough to share come fight night.

[Mr. Philadel]

I'll make sure I bump this after Roy wins I guess these dudes haven't learned their lesson.

[Hitman88]

Never underestimate...

Boxer writers, enthusiasts, & most so called experts aren't giving roy a chance in this fight much like they wrote off b-hop a few weeks ago (and we saw how that scenario played out). True, hopkins has a much more sound fundamental base but I have seen roy making a few subtle alterations over the course of his last few fights. Most notably, not keeping his guard as low as in his hey day. The most significant factor that's being overshadowed (in many cases) is the issue of hand speed & power. True, jones isnt as fast as he was in the 90s & early 2000 but then again he was so far ahead of other boxers even slowed a bit his hands are still just as fast or faster than the bulk of active fighters today. There will be plenty of exchanges where he can & will get off first and with good accuracy. As far as power, Ive yet to see calzaghe exhibit any one punch k-o ability. The bulk of his ko's have come via stoppages where his opponent failed to answer those flurries thus the ref stopped the fight much like his fight against manfredo jr. He put a beating on lacy and still wasnt able to stop him & didnt score a knock down til the 12th rd. He may buzz jones if he catches him flush but I see very little chance of him scoring a k-o. Finally, the most recognizable decline Ive seen in roy wasnt his overall skill set but his mindset. More than anything, his confidence & will was a bit shaken which attributed to the horrible showing in the 3rd fight w/ tarver. He actually had tarver hurt a couple times in that fight but just wouldnt let his hands go. He almost appeared 'shell shocked'. I think it was good for him to take a step back and regain that confidence w/ the tuneup fights following the decision loss to tarver. He has slowly worked his way back and though trinidad had been inactive & subsubquently 10lbs past his best wgt, it was still a good showing overall. If jones jr has worked out the 'kinks' mentally, I think both calzaghe & the boxing world is going to be in for a surprise. Both fighters have unorthodoxed styles & fast hands but I have to give the edge in power to jones. If roy indeed has the swagger back & is in good shape, he's going to give joe problems.

[sparked_85]

Yep, that's what makes it all worth watching, eh?

Everybody knows Roy has a chance. Not a big one, but a chance. If it were someone who didn't have a frigging iron chin, I'd give him a 50/50 chance, but it isn't, and I can't. He can't take a decision against Calzaghe over 12 rounds if he works enough to win at least 7. If he tries, he'll gas late and get TKO'd in the championship rounds. His only chance is to TKO Calzaghe, which I put at around a 15% chance of him pulling it off, give or take a little. Sometimes I feel like it's closer to 20%, sometimes 10%. Whatever the case, it's about the only way he can beat Joe. And if he spends the energy trying to knock Joe out and fails, he gets TKO'd probably around the 8th. If it were a 10 round fight, I'd give Roy a 75% chance of taking a decision home, if his conditioning were as good as possible with his body type and age. But even in his prime, Roy wouldn't have been capable of the type of conditioning Calzaghe is. Wrong body type. And to be honest, I don't really believe Roy truly pushes himself during his roadwork/conditioning, probably never has.

Anyway, that's my take on it....again. WOnder how many times I've given my opinion on how this fight will play out? One thing's for sure....enough times that it won't be any problem for some RJJ fan (of which I'm certainly one myself) to find a half dozen of them, punt 'em to the top, and make me look like a complete and utter moron, should Roy SOMEHOW manage to win this by UD. You betcha.

This is a good post. The thing is if Roy does win he wins big and stops Joe like you said.

[Stickman]

There are some points to this article that I agree with. I agree that part of that prime Roy that we were use to seeing was left laying on the ground in the Johnson fight. I agree that he laughed and pathetically showboated his way to survive the 3rd Tarver fight. And I also agree that the Trinidad fight as good as he looked or shall I say "looked recently" he was fighting a fighter that he was physically bigger than. Personally, I feel he should of and could of knocked Trinidad out. The old Roy would of. However, I disagree with the notion that Calzaghe somehow, after his wins over guys like Kessler, Lacy, and Hopkins is the guy people are over looking. There style's alone I think will clash and if that happens then Roy has a equal and legitimate chance to win. A lot of roy's strengths fall right into Calzaghe's weaknesses. For example, his straight right hand, and the tendency Calzaghe has to lead with his chin when he gets careless. It didnt even look like Bernard put all of his power behind that right he stuck out there in self defense that he dropped Joe with. If anything, Bernard might of showed that Joe's chin might be a bit overrated, though that remains to be seen. And Im going to humor myself and not dare insinuate that the reason Calzaghe didnt throw the 800-1200 punches we're use to seeing was because of the style of Bernard Hopkins and not good ole mother nature catching up to him too. Like his punch output hasnt dropped a bit. I think its going to be difficult for Roy to adjust to the south paw speed of Calzaghe however, its going to be equally as difficult for Calzaghe to deal with the right hand leads and body shots from Roy. Call me crazy if you want, but its hard to throw 80-100 punches a round when your going to get hit half that many times by a guy who has better "accurate" speed than you with more power. I mean Calzaghe looks good when he throws his 3-5 punch combinations or goes on his little 8-10 punch unanswered furies, but when you really look half of those shots hit the opponent flush and rarely with any momentum swinging power. When Roy throws his combinations he hits you with at least half of them and there solid, crisp, accurate punches. I agree Roy left some of his skill, speed, and athletiscm, in the ring in the Glen Johnson fight, but the most important thing he left in the ring was in his 2nd Tarver fight, and that was his confidence. At first, everybody was dissing Calzaghe for choosing Roy as an opponent, Roy was and to a lot of people still is a washed up fighter, fighting for his legacy and last big payday to cement his place in boxing history that Calzaghe is suppose to dominate b4 riding off in the sunset to retire. Most boxing observers like myself felt he should of fought Kelly Pavlik however I never thought Roy was going to be a shoe in for Calzaghe to beat, and now that Pavlik was exposed by Hopkins we should be thankful that Calzaghe is fighting this legend. With that being said there are a couple of other factors than can come into play to help favor Roy . Roy has better defense which is going to help him tremendously. Fighting Hopkins on foreign soil after the ignorant "white boy" statement made Calzaghe the American favorite but only for that particular fight. Joe's use to fighting in front of sold out stadiums with 25,000-50,000 fans. He's going to be the betting favorite but for once the crowd "underdog" a role Im curious to see how he's going to handle once the going gets rough, the fans are not all on your side and every 3minutes you have your dad (looking like Pepe La Pew, from Bugz Bunny) yelling in your face going to respond to that adversity. The author was on point with some of his points but if he thinks that Jones doesnt have a chance to beat Calzaghe I hope whatever he's smoking he has enough to share come fight night.

Jay..I wanted to mention the knockdown you referenced in Zaggs/'Nard. If you watch that in slomo, you can see that, while 'Nard did land a beauty of a right, the knockdown was just as much from being off balance, being caught with the right, and Bernard following his right with the rest of his body and shoving Zaggs over. Probably wouldn't have happened otherwise. I don't think the chin is overrated. I'm sure he can be hurt, just not every easily. He was rocked pretty good by Byron Mitchell, up almost instantly, and fired back enough accurate punches to stop Mitchell. No, I'm not convinced at all that his chin is overrated.

As for the styles matchup....yeah, Roy can counter brilliantly when his opponent comes in like Joe does, but Calzaghe's speed, footwork and punch output are, I think, going to cause more problems for Roy than Roy will cause for Joe. I keep remembering watching that slomo of him getting caught by that blindly thrown inside punch by Tarver. If Tarver can land like that, I don't think Calzaghe will have any trouble putting punches on target. The only way Roy would win other than a TKO, is it Calzaghe suddenly stops being a pressure fighter, and tries to work from the outside. That would guarantee Roy a decision win, for sure.


P.S.

One word:

PARAGRAPHS.

Use 'em, friend.