McGregor VS Mayweather won't break 1.5 mil..... here is why

[HeadShots]

Not that I take anything you say particularly seriously, but I think there are a few things you should take into account if you genuinely feel this way.

Firstly have you been on social media the last 24 hours? If you have, you would realise the level of hype already, if you consider that neither of the fighters have made any kind of public appearance, let alone a press conference or anything which promotes the fight, the hype is pretty unreal. If you have been on social media you will also notice how many casual fans are posting or tweeting, much more than knowledgable fight fans, a lot of these people not only think this is a good competitive matchup but they think McGregor takes it, lots of comments along the lines of 'this will be Floyd's first proper challenge'. Its laughable, but this is the recipe you get when you have casuals and two crossover stars.

Secondly you are not taking into consideration that the US is not the only PPV market out there. I think it will do at least 500k buys in the UK for example - probably a lot more. Now you might be only talking US market, but I think the point is, as a world event this fight is huge. I think there is no way to accurately predict the buys on this, there is no formula, your guess is as good as anyone's, and they are all worthless, because there is no historical data to fall back on.

I think the fight will do between 2-3 million, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did double that - especially once you get these two guys in the same room a few times on a media tour. You have two of the greatest trash talkers in the history of combat sports, in a one-off almost freak show event, with probably a solid undercard to boot, which will probably attract some hardcore boxing fans also.

the entire conversation surrounds around the topic of this fight being a circus fight.

you realize that right?


mismatches has never sold. Period.


name me some examples where 10:1 fights sold millions.

[sunny31]

the entire conversation surrounds around the topic of this fight being a circus fight.

you realize that right?


mismatches has never sold. Period.


name me some examples where 10:1 fights sold millions.

There is nothing you can compare this to - that was the premise of my whole post, which completely invalidates your last sentence. When has there ever been a 10-1 underdog in a ppv event at all? You would probably have to go to Mike Tyson fights, which sold like crazy for those days.

This fight/event can't be judged by previous numbers or historical data (I repeat).

Moreover, these guys fan bases don't overlap so much. Which will help the buys I would imagine, obviously there are fans of both sports, and both fighters, but in general there isn't a huge overlap, so they are both going to bring in-built fan bases, (boxing, ufc, Mayweather, McGregor).

The build up will get people going, and people will not want to miss it once it gets close, mark my words. It be driven by lots of factors, some of which I have mentioned above and in my previous post. Not to mention that betting action and the crazy odds will mean lots of people will tune in just for that reason.

I could talk for a while as to why this fight will sell, but I will leave it there. You are wrong (not the first time), but we don't have to wait very long this time.

[HeadShots]

There is nothing you can compare this to - that was the premise of my whole post, which completely invalidates your last sentence. When has there ever been a 10-1 underdog in a ppv event at all? You would probably have to go to Mike Tyson fights, which sold like crazy for those days.

This fight/event can't be judged by previous numbers or historical data (I repeat).

Moreover, these guys fan bases don't overlap so much. Which will help the buys I would imagine, obviously there are fans of both sports, and both fighters, but in general there isn't a huge overlap, so they are both going to bring in-built fan bases, (boxing, ufc, Mayweather, McGregor).

The build up will get people going, and people will not want to miss it once it gets close, mark my words. It be driven by lots of factors, some of which I have mentioned above and in my previous post. Not to mention that betting action and the crazy odds will mean lots of people will tune in just for that reason.

I could talk for a while as to why this fight will sell, but I will leave it there. You are wrong (not the first time), but we don't have to wait very long this time.

it absolutely can.


you can use logic with the historical data. People buy PPV of their favorite fighters to watch them win.


that is sound logic. which is why the highest PPV selling fights are almost always close in odds due to this very fact.

People bought Tyson fights because he has been the draw every time. Everyone loved Tyson.



Mayweather's farewell fight with closer odds only did 400K. Why? because the core fans are paying to watch Mayweather lose. when he's not at risk. People don't care.



When Mayweather is the 10-1 favorite, he's not going to draw. Period.



Conor fans won't buy the fight because they believe he'll lose too.

[Jimmy 23]

Mayweather made his fortune on Mexican holidays. His biggest buying fan base is actually Latino.

When it was his last fight on his own vs a black fighter, he only did 300K PPV's on a mexican holiday.

This time he's going to completely alienate his mexican fan base by not fighting on the mexican holiday AND he's not fighting anybody the latino fight fans follow.

So this draw is going to be completely dependant on MMA fan boys. They aren't even interested in this fight with the exception of some Conor die hards.


This is going to be like the Brock Lesnar UFC comebacks that projected 1+ mil PPV's but only ended up doing 300-400K because people aren't that ******.


It's not doing 5 mil. it's not coming close to 4 mil. honestly it's not even doing 2 mil PPV's.


Mark my words.

you're an idiot

[Reloaded]

This will do huge numbers around 3mill min, I wouldn't be surprised if it beat May vs Pac numbers, these are one of those rare moments where fighting sports cross over to the man in the street and the event blows the roof of the house.

If you cant see how big of an event this will be your not looking or very ignorant to the World, this will be the place to be for every hob-knob in the country, the celebrity turn out will make the Oscars look pale.

Fight week will be maniac in Las Vegas, the Irish will be loud and out in force, the media will go nuts with this from the first Press conference where Connor and Floyd are present, look at it already its dominating every combat forum in the world.

[Kigali]

Mayweather's perpetual little man syndrome will cost him this time. he wanted to show up Golden boy ...


but honestly, i would not be surprised if GGG/Canelo outsold Mcgregor/Mayweather. The biggest PPV of all time land on mexican holidays for a reason.


Latino fan base will decide. and when the smoke settles, GGG/Canelo is the fight they will buy.

You know all about that

[Kigali]

ITT: Third worlders tell Americans about the purchasing habits of the American consumer. Trust me this fight will be huge. The writing is on the wall. Sports radio, ESPN, other sports networks won't stfu about this exhibition. It's already getting massive promotion for free as it is. Wait til they start hyping it.

He still can't flush a toilet and he's talking ****.

[-Kev-]

those white UFC fans will not buy the PPV because even they know Conor will lose.


that's the point.


name a single time UFC fans supported their white stars who are huge underdogs.



by the time Chuck Liddell, Lesnar etc became underdogs, whites stopped buying their PPV's.


they are not dumb.

The boxing fanbase do not support their own, unless it was DLH, Floyd, or Tyson. But now the new exciting guys like GGG, Kovalev, they can't sell, even though boxing fans lead you to believe they love them.

[IronDanHamza]

So you agree even Berto was less of a mismatch than this right? that fight also had the sentiment of retirement bout for Mayweather on top of the support from the latino fan base being on a mexican holiday.



So that fight was the true Mayweather draw on a latino holiday. 400K is the reported #.


I am giving Conor Mcgregor 1.1 mil PPV's on top of the 400K Mayweather buys.



the problem is I'm not even sure Conor can muster up that many PPV's. A lot of people know this is a cash grab. that's the problem.

Of course it's a bigger mismatch. Andre Berto would stop McGregor in 3 rounds max. My prediction would be one round.

550 k was what was reported and again that is because Berto is unknown.

These are by far the two biggest stars in combat sports so it's a completely different animal.

But like I said i agree somewhat. I don't see it doing the numbers they expect. 2.5 is my guess.

[jcj0427]

Im betting my house it doesnt break MayPacs record. That was a superfight 5 years in the making. Im pretty sure UFC fans were a large part of those buys as well. McGregor popularity is slight overrated in my mind. This dude already has one loss so the indestructible factor is long gone.

Whether we like it or not, Mexicans are a big portion of PPV Buys. I know alot of casual white guy sports fan who do know guys like DLH, May, Pac etc but still are not really aware of Canelo (no english is a big factor) and much less Chavez JR. It was the mexicans who got it to 1 Mill buys. So you'd have to think some of them might be turned off by this fight and would much rather stream it. I actually think that as this fight gets closer it will lose some steam because people will become more aware that McGregor is no boxer and doesnt stand a chance against Mayweather. The main thing going for this fight is the CURIOSITY factor and as the fight creeps closer the curiosity factor will go down. I say it does between 2-2.5, which is not a bad number at all.