Comments Thread For: ?BoMac?: Terence Crawford is fighting Canelo Alvarez for legacy? and then maybe bowing out

[Oregonian]

I understand what you're saying. I really do. But you really trying to tell me he couldn't have smashed Fundora two days ago, and then fought Canelo in September? He had an ordered shot that would have given him the belt by email if Fundora ducked, and that's the easiest pair of belts to pick up right now in the division IMO.

So let's talk inactivity. Bud isn't historically active, although since he's also not been plagued by injury, it's frankly bizarre he wasn't fighting twice a year while he was getting frozen out by the PBC bozos. He'd easily have eclipsed Floyd's record (granted, against lesser competition, but the casuals would have eaten that up). I don't know why he re-signed with Top Rank, nor why they failed so badly at delivering him fights and hype, since IMO he's not a boring fighter to watch given his skills, power, and meanness when it comes time to get the finish. So that's a lot of strong points in his favor in terms of not getting too rusty. And you make an excellent point that Canelo hasn't been fighting anyone that will prepare him for a P4P fighter in Bud, aside from the point that he fought Jermell Charlo, who was undisputed at 154, and sat at #9 on the P4P lists prior to their fight... People didn't give him credit for that win, just as they won't give him credit after the fact for beating Crawford, but that was a guy who actually DID make undisputed at 154, and is bigger and stronger than Bud.

I've done a tactical breakdown before, but we have a good amount of evidence for what it takes to beat Canelo, what with Mayweather and Bivol. Or GGG 1. Crawford isn't going to be able to fight like Golovkin, so we can dispense with that. And we know exactly how Canelo fights. He'll be coming forward, and he's going to be targeting Crawford's arms and body to break him down. So you need two key things to beat him. Fast enough feet to stay out of his range, and volume (and the skills to apply that volume without getting countered). The volume point is a sticky one. The guys who beat him all threw over 42 punches a round, on average, with high accuracy. Mayweather threw 505 punches across 12, landing at a 46% rate, against a greener Canelo. Bivol, 710, while holding Canelo to landing at only 17.4%. and remember that despite outlanding Canelo in literally every round, often by wide margins, he barely won on the cards.

Crawford is an economical puncher, and I don't think he's thrown that kind of volume except in fights like the Avanesyan fight, in which he hugely outclassed and outgunned his opponent, and if he's ever done it for 12 rounds, it's been years. I'm not convinced he CAN throw that kind of volume, let alone with Canelo firepower coming at him, and let alone going up effectively 3 divisions in weight.

The next issue is that I really doubt he knows what it feels like to carry that much extra weight in a fight. I've never met a boxer who really did understand that, because they either are consummate gym **** who are never far from fighting weight, or they think it's going to just be an easier weight cut. Since my competition days are behind me and I've transitioned more to coaching, and have had to deal with weight gain thanks to adding to my family, I will tell you that the extra weight makes a noticeable difference. It saps the gas tank by a large margin, and takes months to really acclimate to, without even really getting to train the other skills. If I were in Bud's corner, I would be moving camp to high altitude just to get him ready in time for September, and I'd have done that months ago. It also slows you down, both offensively and defensively. Moves are harder to make, there's more stress on your joints, etc. It's not a huge amount, but fractions of a second add up in boxing. They are the difference between avoiding a punch, or not, or gassing before the distance or not. I've managed to keep myself in shape to do 24 rounds straight vs kids who are often at least 20 years younger than me, so that's not just a couch potato take. I really hope he's taking that weight gain seriously, or he'll end up just like Charlo.

But I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, and assume he comes in the best shape of his life, ready to keep the feet moving and throw a career high number of punches to keep Canelo off him. That will allow him to be in a good, competitive fight, and maybe even outland Canelo with good shots. He's not going to drop or stop Canelo. If Golovkin couldn't, Bud sure can't. But let's say he overcomes everything I've said and does manage to be in that fight with Canelo, even getting the better of him. Unless he's winning in wide margins, Canelo will almost certainly still get the benefit of the doubt on the cards. So Bud has to be close to career best at 37, against the bigger, stronger, younger man with arguably the best chin in boxing, and be perfect for 12 rounds, AND he has to beat him widely enough that the judges can't give it to Canelo anyways. That's not a 60-40 fight to my eyes.

Don't get me wrong. I'll be rooting for Bud to pull it off. But boy is that a tall ask.

———
Great analysts. Given all the details and intangibles, and a proverbial gun to your head, who are you picking to win this fight?

For me, this was my takeaway from your insights, “I'm not convinced he CAN throw that kind of volume, let alone with Canelo firepower coming at him”.

Khan was faster than Canelo, he wasn’t hurting him nor was he discouraging him. Canelo was throwing bombs everywhere. It was just a matter of time before Canelo KO’d him. Bud is going to be 38, can he fight a perfect fight against a monster puncher and a pure boxer in Canelo? I’m not sure.

[Lefty0616]

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Turki is a billionaire. He is not taking over boxing so he can make a “profit”. Saudi League is the highest paying league on the planet, they are not making a profit at all. Look up how much Ronaldo and Benzema are making in the twilight of their careers.

Canelo and Bud are getting paid money irrespective of PPV or gate numbers. Turki could pay both of them $100 million each to fight in his backyard.
The same was the case for the Usyk vs Fury fight. Based on how much they were both paid, we should assume they sold 3 million PPV at the bare minimum, no? They lost money.

So corruption or not, a rematch can happen if Turki wishes to see it AND to pay for it.

You have valid points.

[landotter]

I get why it will likely happen. I am just in the minority I do not think the product in the ring will live up to all the hope and hype if it does.

[crimsonfalcon07]

———
Great analysts. Given all the details and intangibles, and a proverbial gun to your head, who are you picking to win this fight?

For me, this was my takeaway from your insights, “I'm not convinced he CAN throw that kind of volume, let alone with Canelo firepower coming at him”.

Khan was faster than Canelo, he wasn’t hurting him nor was he discouraging him. Canelo was throwing bombs everywhere. It was just a matter of time before Canelo KO’d him. Bud is going to be 38, can he fight a perfect fight against a monster puncher and a pure boxer in Canelo? I’m not sure.

Gun to my head I'd pick Canelo to win by decision. Crawford is probably good enough to keep it close, but Canelo seems to get 3-4 rounds on the cards before the fight ever starts, and Canelo has perhaps the best chin in boxing, so Bud needs to win at least 10 rounds clear without the chance of a knockdown. I don't know how Bud will handle the extra weight.

I think smart money would be on him feeling the power on the first and second round, still thinking he can win but ending up fighting very economically with low volume on the back foot while Canelo does his thing, and landing a similar number of punches in a close fight, and consequently losing 8-4 in a fight in which some people will cry robbery, he'll say he "dared to be great and got robbed" and then retire while enjoying his last (well earned IMO) big payday.

I could also see him trying not to pull a Charlo and consequently getting knocked down and losing wide because he was trying to go for it, after which people will claim he was always an overrated bum and talking about how weight classes exist for a reason and they knew he would lose, when they're on record saying he was going to win.

Either way, Canelo will get no credit from anyone, and people will be talking about how he couldn't even stop a welterweight.

But boy, I hope he proves me and the other doubters wrong and pulls out a performance like he did vs Spence that cements his place in history. Would serve Canelo right for all the cherries he's been picking. Either way, since I'll be in Vegas by the time of the fight, if I can make it work, I might try to make it in person and support him. Would be neat to see two of the greatest of my generation in likely the final "super fight" of their careers.

[Gary Coleman]

———
Great analysts. Given all the details and intangibles, and a proverbial gun to your head, who are you picking to win this fight?

For me, this was my takeaway from your insights, “I'm not convinced he CAN throw that kind of volume, let alone with Canelo firepower coming at him”.

Khan was faster than Canelo, he wasn’t hurting him nor was he discouraging him. Canelo was throwing bombs everywhere. It was just a matter of time before Canelo KO’d him. Bud is going to be 38, can he fight a perfect fight against a monster puncher and a pure boxer in Canelo? I’m not sure.

All of that, "Khan was winning up until the KO," is nonsense.

Canelo was closing the distance round by round and was killing Amir to the body, which made the KO shot possible.

I don't have a problem with Crawford taking this fight. There's no real downside outside of getting sparked, but I don't want to hear any excuses afterwards.

[LarryMerchant'sBottle]

Gun to my head I'd pick Canelo to win by decision. Crawford is probably good enough to keep it close, but Canelo seems to get 3-4 rounds on the cards before the fight ever starts, and Canelo has perhaps the best chin in boxing, so Bud needs to win at least 10 rounds clear without the chance of a knockdown. I don't know how Bud will handle the extra weight.

I think smart money would be on him feeling the power on the first and second round, still thinking he can win but ending up fighting very economically with low volume on the back foot while Canelo does his thing, and landing a similar number of punches in a close fight, and consequently losing 8-4 in a fight in which some people will cry robbery, he'll say he "dared to be great and got robbed" and then retire while enjoying his last (well earned IMO) big payday.

I could also see him trying not to pull a Charlo and consequently getting knocked down and losing wide because he was trying to go for it, after which people will claim he was always an overrated bum and talking about how weight classes exist for a reason and they knew he would lose, when they're on record saying he was going to win.

Either way, Canelo will get no credit from anyone, and people will be talking about how he couldn't even stop a welterweight.

But boy, I hope he proves me and the other doubters wrong and pulls out a performance like he did vs Spence that cements his place in history. Would serve Canelo right for all the cherries he's been picking. Either way, since I'll be in Vegas by the time of the fight, if I can make it work, I might try to make it in person and support him. Would be neat to see two of the greatest of my generation in likely the final "super fight" of their careers.

I can see why Ginger is/was asking for $150 million. If he wins, he gets hate and if he loses, he gets even more hate. He absolutely gains nothing for fighting Bud except for money and he set his price pretty freaking high. I actually think he was smart in asking for so much as it appears that he will get the amount of money he asked for.

[Oregonian]

All of that, "Khan was winning up until the KO," is nonsense.

Canelo was closing the distance round by round and was killing Amir to the body, which made the KO shot possible.

I don't have a problem with Crawford taking this fight. There's no real downside outside of getting sparked, but I don't want to hear any excuses afterwards.

———
I never said “Khan was winning up until the KO”. You are saying it. And since you mention it, let’s look at the judges scorecards please;
”Glenn Feldman had Canelo up 48-47, which is the same score that HBO's Harold Lederman had, and Adalaide Byrd had Khan ahead 48-47.”

So, one judge did have Khan ahead before the KO.

I don’t disagree with you. - Canelo was closing the distance and those body shots were hellacious. I was shocked Khan was still standing.

Again, like you, I don’t wanna hear excuses. I think Crawford is straight up guy and will own the loss.

[Oregonian]

Gun to my head I'd pick Canelo to win by decision. Crawford is probably good enough to keep it close, but Canelo seems to get 3-4 rounds on the cards before the fight ever starts, and Canelo has perhaps the best chin in boxing, so Bud needs to win at least 10 rounds clear without the chance of a knockdown. I don't know how Bud will handle the extra weight.

I think smart money would be on him feeling the power on the first and second round, still thinking he can win but ending up fighting very economically with low volume on the back foot while Canelo does his thing, and landing a similar number of punches in a close fight, and consequently losing 8-4 in a fight in which some people will cry robbery, he'll say he "dared to be great and got robbed" and then retire while enjoying his last (well earned IMO) big payday.

I could also see him trying not to pull a Charlo and consequently getting knocked down and losing wide because he was trying to go for it, after which people will claim he was always an overrated bum and talking about how weight classes exist for a reason and they knew he would lose, when they're on record saying he was going to win.

Either way, Canelo will get no credit from anyone, and people will be talking about how he couldn't even stop a welterweight.

But boy, I hope he proves me and the other doubters wrong and pulls out a performance like he did vs Spence that cements his place in history. Would serve Canelo right for all the cherries he's been picking. Either way, since I'll be in Vegas by the time of the fight, if I can make it work, I might try to make it in person and support him. Would be neat to see two of the greatest of my generation in likely the final "super fight" of their careers.

——-
I’m no fan of Canelo because of the outright shameless duck of Benny AND the craziest cherry-picking in his last 4 or 5 fights but I just don’t see this fight ending well for Bud. So my prediction is a highlight reel KO before the 10th round.

Having said that, I hope Bud pulls a performance of the ages and embarrass that cherry-picking ATG Canelo.

[Gary Coleman]

———
I never said “Khan was winning up until the KO”. You are saying it. And since you mention it, let’s look at the judges scorecards please;
”Glenn Feldman had Canelo up 48-47, which is the same score that HBO's Harold Lederman had, and Adalaide Byrd had Khan ahead 48-47.”

So, one judge did have Khan ahead before the KO.

I don’t disagree with you. - Canelo was closing the distance and those body shots were hellacious. I was shocked Khan was still standing.

Again, like you, I don’t wanna hear excuses. I think Crawford is straight up guy and will own the loss.

Nah, I was saying that people want to pretend that Khan was taking Canelo to school when that wasn't the case at all.

I know what you meant.