I’m pretty confident Fury will beat Usyk.
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If Fury can stick and move for twelve rounds without his legs tiring out then fair play to him.
He is the favorite to win and is rightfully so. He has a huge size and reach advantange.Comment
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Usyk faced the EXACT same problems with Joshua (twice) who was also much taller and a natural Heavyweight but actually managed to keep HIM at the end of his jab and wobble him a few times. Also, Usyk has the advantage in terms of hand+foot speed so should be able to get out of the way of a lot of Fury's shots whilst tagging him with a flurry of his own. In other words, I think he'll use his elite amateur pedigree to outbox him over 12 rounds.
Let's not forget that Ngannou is just one inch taller than Usyk and a complete newbie to boxing yet managed to tag Fury at WILL whilst dropping him and narrowly losing a fight many people thought he won. Tyson and his team have also been behaving erratically too since the fight was announced whereas Usyk has been as cool as a cucumber so he definitely has the mental edge.
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I NEVER said they did...I simply pointed out the fact that Usyk has faced the exact same problem before i.e. a natural Heavyweight with a large height and reach advantage and solved it. After all, do you think that Usyk's just going to let Fury keep him on the end of his jab and just lean on him whenever he likes? Obviously he'll use his superior footwork and ELITE ring IQ to nullify these 'advantages' just like he did Joshua...
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Many boxers who have fought Usyk commented on how Usyk is constantly in front of you but just out of range, making you think you can reach him but take advantage to counterpunch. They also talk about how tired they feel fighting Usyk. In this case, Fury's longer reach and great jab will keep Usyk a little farther. So, getting in and out would not be easy. Plus, Fury has good feints which will keep Usyk guessing. With the two AJ fights, Usyk got into a rhythm and boxed so well but that is because AJ fought the same way for 24 rounds. Fury will mix things up by movement, stances, aggression, back foot, inside fighting, etc. In the Chisora fight, Usyk was constantly getting away from Chisora because Chisora got tired and couldn't cut the ring. That won't be the case with Fury.
Coming back to your question on how Usyk beats Fury, it would be because a less-than-optimal Fury shows up and cannot do what I just mentioned so effectively as he did in his best fights. It will also require Usyk to be very good at reading Fury's feints and never get into a clinch. It will require a very accelerated pace to take advantage of better conditioning. It will involve calculated risks of getting in range to tab a jab but return two, and it will require a careful plan where Fury's upper body movement is negated by going to the body with heavy shots and exciting the battle using his good footwork.
A lot of ifs there but can be done because we are talking about a very good fighter. That is why I said that I slightly favor Fury but not ruling an Usyk win out.Comment
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Yes, Usyk will definitely have more problems to get into his ideal range, but the question is if Fury will be consistent enough with this tactic (if he uses it)?
Also Usyk was more aggresive in the Dubois fight. He is usually more aggresive when opponent is tired, so that is another question, if Fury's stamina will hold up.Comment
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