A Guarantee - Roy Jones Won’t Beat Joe Calzaghe

[jayhova29]

funny

Jay..I wanted to mention the knockdown you referenced in Zaggs/'Nard. If you watch that in slomo, you can see that, while 'Nard did land a beauty of a right, the knockdown was just as much from being off balance, being caught with the right, and Bernard following his right with the rest of his body and shoving Zaggs over. Probably wouldn't have happened otherwise. I don't think the chin is overrated. I'm sure he can be hurt, just not every easily. He was rocked pretty good by Byron Mitchell, up almost instantly, and fired back enough accurate punches to stop Mitchell. No, I'm not convinced at all that his chin is overrated.

As for the styles matchup....yeah, Roy can counter brilliantly when his opponent comes in like Joe does, but Calzaghe's speed, footwork and punch output are, I think, going to cause more problems for Roy than Roy will cause for Joe. I keep remembering watching that slomo of him getting caught by that blindly thrown inside punch by Tarver. If Tarver can land like that, I don't think Calzaghe will have any trouble putting punches on target. The only way Roy would win other than a TKO, is it Calzaghe suddenly stops being a pressure fighter, and tries to work from the outside. That would guarantee Roy a decision win, for sure.


P.S.

One word:

PARAGRAPHS.

Use 'em, friend.

Paragraphs, funny but noted

[S A M U R A I]

Jay..I wanted to mention the knockdown you referenced in Zaggs/'Nard. If you watch that in slomo, you can see that, while 'Nard did land a beauty of a right, the knockdown was just as much from being off balance, being caught with the right, and Bernard following his right with the rest of his body and shoving Zaggs over. Probably wouldn't have happened otherwise. I don't think the chin is overrated. I'm sure he can be hurt, just not every easily. He was rocked pretty good by Byron Mitchell, up almost instantly, and fired back enough accurate punches to stop Mitchell. No, I'm not convinced at all that his chin is overrated.

Stickman, having seen the knockdown from several different angles and in super-slow motion, I'm not convinced 'Nard pushed Joe over. It certainly looks that way, but if you look closely you should see that Joe is on his way down already.

I will agree with the lack of balance, and also I always thought Joe was expecting to be headbutted at that point because he saw Bernard rushing forward. I could be wrong, and I don't mean to discredit Bernard's punch (it was a peach of a shot), but Joe seemed a little cautious at first and I think it's possible he was being overly cautious because it's not unusual for Bernard to use his head a lot. We saw this in his fight with Winky and several others, and in fact, Winky was very worried about Bernard's head before their fight -- he publicly stated this.

No doubt about it, Calzaghe's chin is not over-rated, it's phenomenal, in my opinion. The guy can eat up some serious power punches and barely ever looks troubled by them, so that's why I think the punch that Bernard clocked him with resulted in a fairly irrelevant flash knockdown.

Remember the Bika fight? At one point he was hit flush a few times with some very hard looking shots, and he basically laughed and pointed to his chin as if to say "WTF was that supposed to be?".

Joe's chin is solid. If anything, the knockdown by Bernard is over-rated. Calzaghe simply wasn't affected, he only looked slightly embarrassed by the fact he was caught so early on.



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[jayhova29]

Yep, that's what makes it all worth watching, eh?

Everybody knows Roy has a chance. Not a big one, but a chance. If it were someone who didn't have a frigging iron chin, I'd give him a 50/50 chance, but it isn't, and I can't. He can't take a decision against Calzaghe over 12 rounds if he works enough to win at least 7. If he tries, he'll gas late and get TKO'd in the championship rounds. His only chance is to TKO Calzaghe, which I put at around a 15% chance of him pulling it off, give or take a little. Sometimes I feel like it's closer to 20%, sometimes 10%. Whatever the case, it's about the only way he can beat Joe. And if he spends the energy trying to knock Joe out and fails, he gets TKO'd probably around the 8th. If it were a 10 round fight, I'd give Roy a 75% chance of taking a decision home, if his conditioning were as good as possible with his body type and age. But even in his prime, Roy wouldn't have been capable of the type of conditioning Calzaghe is. Wrong body type. And to be honest, I don't really believe Roy truly pushes himself during his roadwork/conditioning, probably never has.

Anyway, that's my take on it....again. WOnder how many times I've given my opinion on how this fight will play out? One thing's for sure....enough times that it won't be any problem for some RJJ fan (of which I'm certainly one myself) to find a half dozen of them, punt 'em to the top, and make me look like a complete and utter moron, should Roy SOMEHOW manage to win this by UD. You betcha.

WOW, you only give Roy between a 10-20% chance on winning this fight. IMO thats crazy, your right when you say that Roy's chin makes him hard to believe he would have a 50/50 chance. I would say its like a 35-45% chance that Roy can win. Calzaghe might hit Roy a lot, but with the defense Roy resorts to now most of those punches will be blocked and when he does hit Roy flush i dont see him having the power to inflict enough damage to prevent Roy from countering.

With the way Calzaghe fights it easy to make him the favorite solely based on affective aggression. However, we both agree that styles make fights and i just feel Calzaghe's flaws fall better into Roy's hand's then vice versa. When Calzaghe begins to let his hands go he either comes forward chin up or hands down, leaving him susceptible to the lead Right or the unorthodox left uppercut Roy throws. I agree when Bernard knocked Calzaghe down Joe was a bit off balance and that was one of the few punches i saw Bernard land flush that night.

I would agree that Calzaghe is in better shape than Roy, but not by that much and neither fighter looks fatigued in the championship rounds for me to give the nod over the other on a conditioning level. The most evident flaw that Roy has is his chin, but Calzaghe IMO doesnt have the one punch knockout power to capitalize in that. If he fights for an extended period of time he's going to get hit by harder punches than what he's dishing out. And though he may throw more punches Roy's defense and power can negate that. Not to mention neither fighter has been in the Ring with a fighter as fast hands wise as the other and i think whatever fighter can adjust to that, will have the advantage going into the latter rounds.

[Floydmayweather]

The fact is the jump up to the higher weights did extract alot out of Jones but i think he still looks very fast and he can use fundamentals he just hasnt (until trinidad). He keep his hands up and used a stiff jab. Also i think Jones let some of his recent fights go the distance i have no doubt he was allowing Trinidad to survive. He may have more in the tank than we believe, i think he is gonna let it all hang out in this fight.

JOnes upsets Joe Peace

[Uchi Deshi]

A lot of people thought Pavlik was guaranteed to win against Hopkins.

Although the odds favor Calzaghe, Jones still has a chance.

[Stickman]

A lot of people thought Pavlik was guaranteed to win against Hopkins.

Although the odds favor Calzaghe, Jones still has a chance.

Well, in my case, I didn't think Pavlik was guaranteed to win, but rather that Hopkins was guaranteed to lose...I just didn't think he'd have the gas to fight for 12. If I'd known he was going to be in that kind of condition, I'd have predicted a UD for Bernard...pretty much what happened. I was glad to be wrong, in this case. I haven't seen that version of Hopkins in several years, and am tickled that we got to be reaquainted.

[Stickman]

WOW, you only give Roy between a 10-20% chance on winning this fight. IMO thats crazy, your right when you say that Roy's chin makes him hard to believe he would have a 50/50 chance. I would say its like a 35-45% chance that Roy can win. Calzaghe might hit Roy a lot, but with the defense Roy resorts to now most of those punches will be blocked and when he does hit Roy flush i dont see him having the power to inflict enough damage to prevent Roy from countering.

With the way Calzaghe fights it easy to make him the favorite solely based on affective aggression. However, we both agree that styles make fights and i just feel Calzaghe's flaws fall better into Roy's hand's then vice versa. When Calzaghe begins to let his hands go he either comes forward chin up or hands down, leaving him susceptible to the lead Right or the unorthodox left uppercut Roy throws. I agree when Bernard knocked Calzaghe down Joe was a bit off balance and that was one of the few punches i saw Bernard land flush that night.

I would agree that Calzaghe is in better shape than Roy, but not by that much and neither fighter looks fatigued in the championship rounds for me to give the nod over the other on a conditioning level. The most evident flaw that Roy has is his chin, but Calzaghe IMO doesnt have the one punch knockout power to capitalize in that. If he fights for an extended period of time he's going to get hit by harder punches than what he's dishing out. And though he may throw more punches Roy's defense and power can negate that. Not to mention neither fighter has been in the Ring with a fighter as fast hands wise as the other and i think whatever fighter can adjust to that, will have the advantage going into the latter rounds.

The difference in conditioning is small, but there, and more than enough to make the difference, late. The problem will be (for Roy) shutting down Calzaghe's punch output, and his intense pressure style. I don't think he can, truthfully, not without using some of the same tactics that Hopkins did, and we saw how ugly that fight was...I just don't think Roy would resort to that sort of thing, or at least not nearly to the extent as Bernard. And if he can't shut him down somehow with rough-house tactics, then he's got to throw punches to keep him off. That being the case, Roy will be more vulnerable to getting caught himself, and (this is the big problem) will spend the gas he'll need late. He'll see this coming, possibly as early as the 5th round, and his punch output will drop, he'll resort to countering only as Joe comes in, then tying up, and will lose a decision because he simply won't be able to throw enough without gassing and risking getting stopped late.

That said, there's something I caught in the first 24/7 episode that Calzaghe said...He said, specifically, that he might not throw as much as he usually does, and may throw much harder than he did against Hopkins. So, there's Roy's biggest chance of a win. If Calzaghe actually puts this thought into practice, I think Roy can win a decision, because Calzaghe will be pulling himself out of his comfort zone by fighting out of character. I seriously don't think Joe will reduce his punch output much....he may try it for a few rounds, but he'll feel too uncomfortable, and will go back to what he's good at:throwing non-stop until the fight's over one way or another. On the other hand, if he does adapt a lower-output/harder punching style, it's entirely possible that he catches Roy early and takes him out. You guys have to remember, Calzaghe's hands are faster than anyone I can ever remember Roy being in the ring with. On top of that, Roy does have some problems with southpaws, and has historically been prone, to some extent, to catching a lead straight left and a following hook.

I still think the fight will play out as I've said, but I am giving Roy somewhat more of a chance at a win by decision now, probably around 15% by itself, but I'm also starting to feel that the chance of him stopping Joe just isn't much to speak of, probably nearing the 10%, or even less.

I still have to put the overall odds of Roy winning at less than 30%, or a little less than a 4/1 underdog. However, I'm going to go on record here as saying that Roy is probably the liveliest underdog I've ever seen coming into a fight, and that I'm seriously considering throwing $500, maybe even $1000 down at the bookie over at an Oklahoma casino on Roy, at the +350 odds someone told me he was pulling. I wouldnt consider doing that on anyone that I personally considered an underdog but Roy. I guess what I'm trying to say is that, if anyone can pull off a miracle in this matchup, being as heavy an underdog as he is, it'd be Roy Jones Junior.

[THE REED]

i hope this writer gets fired after this fight

[Stickman]

i hope this writer gets fired after this fight

Really, his opinion is at least partially valid....I don't agree that there's any guarantee of Roy losing, but I think he's just using that to get attention, like someone else on this thread said.

[Shadow boxer 3]

people said B-hop had no change against the younger stronger Pavlik and look what happen. who would have thought Buster Dougles could beat Tyson. obviously he's a bias calzaghy fan. and why r people under estimating RJJ so much. calzaghy fans r in for a shock come Nov. 8