My basic point, is more so a question of Victor's actual chances of victory. It'll be the general consensus that the odds are obviously in Floyd's favor, but overall, I'm not so sure this match up is as perfectly cherry picked as his previous bouts. If you look at the details, it's surprisingly juicy for Floyd, and as I said... possibly risky, at least compared to his last four or five fights. The fans should be excited about this match up, for several reasons, despite the media's obsession with a Pacquiao clash. Usually, there's something that Floyd, or his camp, sees in a fighter as being vulnerable to Floyd's style and comfort zone, and makes it easier to accept the fight. This might sound like a criticism, but rarely do any fighters get in the ring with someone they Know has a better chance of beating them they do their opponent. I would even go as far as to say that Judah's loss to Baldomir convinced Floyd to take that fight, however, if you rewatch the video, it's obvious that Mayweather had some issues with Judah, not necessarily because Zab was an elite boxer (and he was never terrible), but because he was a southpaw, and a respectably quick one at that.
This goes without saying, but Floyd is a defensive genius, who...when hit at all makes the crowd ooh and aah. The Judah fight is not an excellent example of a southpaw having his number, and this is not my point, since I don't think anyone has ever had his number, except for maybe the Gold Medal final he lost as an amateur. I don't think Floyd is very vulnerable to any boxer anywhere near his weight class, however, I'm not so sure Floyd has ever been hurt, and if anyone can get close enough and active enough to do it, it would be an aggressive southpaw. A young, tough, confident southpaw who will make Floyd engage. I understand that Floyd sees $ signs, and a glorified tune up for Manny in this match up with Ortiz, but when he says he won't look past the young Mexican, he better mean it. Ortiz is not half the athletic talent that Mayweather is, but war is rarely fair or understanding of knowledge and experience on their own, and in a sport where fine tuned men use their fists to hurt other men, Ortiz is the only one of the two who has actually, sincerely, gone to war.
This, on its own, is not enough to say that Ortiz will hurt Floyd. We've all seen what Mayweather has done to brawlers. See Gatti. Going to war in the past doesn't necessarily give you the secret powers to defeat a boxing genius, but Victor Ortiz is ten years younger, has knocked down every one of his opponents, and has no problem getting hit. Floyd will box, and get aggressive when he sees signs of vulnerability, but if he gets hit hard early (like he did against Corley, Judah & Mosley), we all know that Ortiz will press in hard, unlike his predecessors. Ortiz only knows one speed, which is forward, but he's young and quick enough to afford to get away with it most of the time, and he seems to enjoy getting hit. Against Maidana, Ortiz opened himself up, and admittedly had too much fun, got too wild, took a bad cut, and the fight was ended prematurely, but not before he planted the tough Argentinian three times. The fact that Ortiz has lost, and still continued to go to war, fight after fight, makes him scarier, or at least more likable as a threat.
Floyd will be quicker than Victor. He'll be sly, clever, and counter on almost everything the young Mexican throws, but when he gets hit, it won't be a small unresponsive Marquez, or a fading Mosley, who refuses to chase, but an enthusiastic kid trying to take his head off. If Mayweather truly believes that he wil stay in the center of the ring and engage (which is what he's said in the press conferences), and not "box", then I think we're all in that very, very rare fireworks show we've all be desperately wanting from a Mayweather fight.
Someone's gonna get hurt, here. If this fight is on the up and up, it certainly won't be Mosley/Pacquiao or Mayweather/Marquez, and I'm not promising Ward/Neary or Vitali/Lennox, but what we'll see will DEFINE Mayweather's image to the public. If he stops Ortiz, the Pacquiao fight will be the biggest fight event of our generation. If Ortiz somehow beats Floyd, Ortiz will be the new poster boy, and millions of sports fan will follow. Many people dislike Mayweather, and if this kid beats him, we'll have a likable boxing star for the mainstream, with a huge future in front of him.