A Deep look into Mayweather, Pacquiao, Canelo and GGG's Risk History

[aboutfkntime]

Can you point me to the commentary with a time stamp for that fight?

All articles that I've found on the subject point to Mayweather being the favorite.

with Corrales ?

I saw one earlier... they said Mayweather was slight favorite as both fighters were entering the ring

5/6... or 6/5... however you put it... with Mayweather slight favorite

Corrales was a killer leading up to that fight... a LOT of people backed him to beat Mayweather

same with Hatton... I can't believe the narrative has changed on that one... especially brits, they were VERY confident in their guy

[Chollo Vista]

Well see my answer to Roll above... up to about 2015 or so I think it's justifiable to say that he was basically wholly dependent on the HBO pursestrings and matchmaking, but from 2015/6 onwards it became all about chasing Canelo down for the $$$s - something for which I've been consistently critical of him. Despite the fact that this period did mark the period of his best fights it also marks the period in which there were the most passed opportunities. As I said to Roll above I ain't gonna criticise a man for trying to maximise his bank balance but as a boxing fan it has been disappointing to say the least.

WRT to the Vanes fight it was pointless, but folk seem to be overlooking the fight that once it becoame non PPV it once again came down to budget... a few fighters put up their hands when they though they were goona get paid but even unknown Jaime Munguia wasn't fool enough to fight GGG for the few $100k on offer (total fight purse HBO was offering was about 1.225 mil). At the time I said he should have waited and gone for Derevyanchenko a few months later and told Canelo to kick rocks and I still hold that opinion... but, well - money I guess

WRT Ward.. probably the only fighter at the time that Golovkin would have fought as an underdog, I get it... he pissed off a lot of people and looked bad by saying he was willing to make the fight, but honestly I'm asking myself would anyone - when mandated to fight Canelo or Cotto in a unification - suddenly decide to move up a division and fight a bigger better guy for less money? I honestly can't think of any fighter who would have or has made that choice so to me calling it some kinda 'duck' or faulting him for it makes no sense unless you fault every fighter who chooses to try to make the most lucrative fight available to 'em at any given time... and that's all of 'em.

Honestly if you were managing Golovkin can you genuinely say you would have recommended he move up to fight Ward just at the moment the biggest opportunities of his career appeared to be opening up before him, even if Ward wasn't a fighter of the calibre he was?

Good post, but correct me if I'm wrong, isn't that what Canelo did when he moved up and fought the #1 Light Heavyweight in Kovalev for less money, only to move back down and fight GGG?

And before you say Kovalev was weak, who does G have on his resume that's better than that win?

Also, before you say, "Well, G is old now", well unfortunately, G is the #1 guy at 160 with Canelo being the champ.

So in reality, we have Canelo moving up to fight the #1 175'lber and then moving back down and fighting the #1 160'lber, which is what folks were asking Golovkin to do in 2015/2016 and he could've done if he wasn't so adversed to risk.

[Nay_Sayer]

Can you point me to the commentary with a time stamp for that fight?

All articles that I've found on the subject point to Mayweather being the favorite.

I'll go re-watch the fight and let you know. I could be mistaken since it's been a while since I've last seen that fight..

[Chollo Vista]

with Corrales ?

I saw one earlier... they said Mayweather was slight favorite as both fighters were entering the ring

5/6... or 6/5... however you put it... with Mayweather slight favorite

Corrales was a killer leading up to that fight... a LOT of people backed him to beat Mayweather

same with Hatton... I can't believe the narrative has changed on that one... especially brits, they were VERY confident in their guy

Yeah, I remember the build up to the Corrales fight; I had no idea how that fight would go. That was a true pick em. Actually, now that I think about it, I think I favored Corrales, just based off his raw power.

And with Hatton, I wasn't on this forum back then, but I remember how much the fans were asking about it. There were other forums I would venture too. But if I'm being honest, at that time, I think Cotto was more of a threat to Floyd at 147 than Hatton. I remember Merchant asking Floyd about that fight after Hatton and Floyd said he didn't want to let boxing retire him, but he'd retire from boxing... And I think he did just that, before coming back to face Marquez at 147 in 09. But by that time, Cotto had already been destroyed by Margarito and was lined up to fight Pac.

But still, the Hatton fight was still a damn good fight and good win for Floyd.

[Chollo Vista]

I'll go re-watch the fight and let you know. I could be mistaken since it's been a while since I've last seen that fight..

Sounds good, man

[aboutfkntime]

Yeah, I remember the build up to the Corrales fight; I had no idea how that fight would go. That was a true pick em. Actually, now that I think about it, I think I favored Corrales, just based off his raw power.

And with Hatton, I wasn't on this forum back then, but I remember how much the fans were asking about it. There were other forums I would venture too. But if I'm being honest, at that time, I think Cotto was more of a threat to Floyd at 147 than Hatton. I remember Merchant asking Floyd about that fight after Hatton and Floyd said he didn't want to let boxing retire him, but he'd retire from boxing... And I think he did just that, before coming back to face Marquez at 147 09. But by that time, Cotto had already been destroyed by Margarito and was lined up to fight Pac.

yea that is probably true, although I think Hatton was likely better at 147 than 140 at that point due to his shocking weight-gain between fights... brutal training camps pretty much killed his career short

Cotto/Hatton at 140 would have been dope

[Citizen Koba]

Good post, but correct me if I'm wrong, isn't that what Canelo did when he moved up and fought the #1 Light Heavyweight in Kovalev for less money, only to move back down and fight GGG?

And before you say Kovalev was weak, who does G have on his resume that's better than that win?

Also, before you say, "Well, G is old now", well unfortunately, G is the #1 guy at 160 with Canelo being the champ.

So in reality, we have Canelo moving up to fight the #1 175'lber and then moving back down and fighting the #1 160'lber, which is what folks were asking Golovkin to do in 2015/2016 and he could've done if he wasn't so adversed to risk.

Touche and accurate (although canelo's DAZN contract guaranteed his future payday against GGG irrespective of a W or L against Kovalev which ain't a luxury Golovkin had in the evnt of an L against Dre) and in fact I credit Canelo with making risky fights he didn't absolutely have to... Lara in particular. Although i have gotta say that if every fighter already had a few $100 million in the bank at age 29 and didn't have the risk of disappearing into anonymity with an L more of them might be willing to take more risks too.

If I've learned anything in boxing there's always an exception but you'll be hard presed to find many of 'em I think.

But yes, technically Golovkin could have done so - gone up to fight Ward and back down to fight Canelo if that was still on the table and he would have deserved huge praise for doing so I think, even though I expect he would have lost and likely hurt his bargaining pposition too. And Golovkin doesn't have a better win on his resume than an old Kovalev (and yes despite the odds Kovalev was still a legit champion and much bigger so Canelo deserves his credit for that too) and yes despite the fact that Golovkin is old he remains technically the #1 MW outside of Canelo so Canelo does deserve credit for fighting him (and likely beating him).

Now given their differing circumstances do you think the risk taken by by both fighters moving up was similar though -both in the potential likelihood of a loss and in the potential harm to future earnings (and in their relative wealth at the time they could have moved up). In short was Canelo taking the same risk in going up to face Kovalev that Golovkin would have been in facing Ward? If Canelo had been in the postion of maybe only having a $ coupla mil inthe bank to show for his entire career and the potential of a loss derailing his opportunity of getting a bigger payday do you think he may have looked at the risk reward calculation differently? What if it was near prime Ward he would have been facing instead of older Kovalev? well we'll never know I guess... maybe he woulda done it anyway... can't fault Canelo for his lack of cojones, but I think few fighters would and nor would I think to hold it against 'em.

Furthermore whilst Canelo does deserve praise for doing what other fighters didn't I'm really asking whether Golovkin really deserves the level of criticism he gets for just doing what virtually every other fighter in history would have done and attempt to make the mandated Superfight in his own division over the less lucrative fight in a higher division?

Honestly I think I know the answer - did anyone except some Golovkin fans critcise Martinez for fighting Cotto over Golovkin for instance or Cotto for fighting Canelo over GGG? Further I also believe that the vast bulk of the criticism Golovkin receives is far less to do with anything he's done that's particularly faultworthy or different from other fighters and far more to do with the hype he received from HBO and the aggressive criticism of other fighters by some of his fans.

Anyways... I'm not saying Golovkin couldn't have done more, my entire point was simply that he just didn't necessarily have the same opportunities as the other three fighters mentioned and his circumstances were different not to mention his later debut age meant he wasn't naturally growing through divsions. Simply that a direct comparison of 'boldness' in matchmaking isn't really possible here if that is what your intent was with this thread.

[Chollo Vista]

Touche and accurate - and in fact I credit Canelo with making risky fights he didn't absolutely have to... Lara in particular. Although i have gotta say that if every fighter already had a few $100 million in the bank at age 29 and didn't have the risk of disappearing into anonymity with an L more of them might be willing to take more risks too.

Lol No quarrels with this post.

But yes, technically Golovkin could have done so - gone up to fight Ward and back down to fight Canelo if that was still on the table and he would have deserved huge praise for doing so I think, even though I expect he would have lost. And Golovkin doesn't have a better win on his resume than an old Kovalev and yes despite the fact that Golovkin is old he remains technically the #1 MW outside of Canelo so Canelo does deserve credit for fighting him (and likely beating him).

Fair enough

Now given their differing circumstances do you think the risk taken by by both fighters moving up was similar though -both in the potential likelihood of a loss and in the potential harm to future earnings (and in their relative wealth at the time they could have moved up). In short was Canelo taking the same risk in going up to face Kovalev that Golovkin would have been in facing Ward?

But why are we getting caught up on the "loss" factor? Let's say hypothetically, you're right. Golovkin loses to Ward. That's not the end all be all as many fighters have taken losses and bounced right back in contender status. Just look at Pac, for example. You follow the sport like me, if not closer, so maybe you know of many fighters that have taken losses, only to bounce back bigger and better and still make their money. I'm sure you can name examples of such.

But to answer your question, I think G would've taken more of a risk against Ward in 2015 than Canelo took in 2020, sure. I can see your point there. But, on the other hand, Kovalev had just KO'd a top 10 Light Heavy with a jab.

Looking back, weren't G and Ward ranked closely P4P?

I don't know, I think the fight would've been a good fight with maybe G as a slight underdog, I'm not sure what the odds were. But worse case scenario, G loses a decision, I don't think Ward would've stopped him. Worst case scenario, Canelo could've been KO'd by the much bigger and more proven Light Heavyweight.

Either way, I do see your point, but for me that's what comes with the territory if you want to be considered an ATG. It's dangerous to be an ATG.

But with that same scenario ask yourself, what's more risky: Cotto vs GGG or GGG vs Ward? This is what the people were saying. Take money out of the equation. G can't complain about "the best" avoiding him, while also making the argument of avoiding the best because of money. It kind of goes both ways.

If Canelo had been in the postion of maybe only having a $ coupla mil inthe bank to show for his entire career and the potential of a loss derailing his opportunity of getting a bigger payday do you think he may have looked at the risk reward calculation differently? What if it was near prime Ward he would have been facing instead of older Kovalev? well we'll never know I guess... maybe he woulda done it anyway... can't fault Canelo for his lack of cojones, but I think few fighters would and nor would I think to hold it against 'em.

Fair point.

Furthermore whilst Canelo does deserve praise for doing what other fighters didn't I'm really asking whether Golovkin really deserves the level of criticism he gets for just doing what virtually every other fighter in history would have done and attempt to make the mandated Superfight in his own division over the less lucrative fight in a higher division?

Sure, but let's say I give you the benefit of the doubt and say "Ok GGG, make the fight in your division". Why would he not agree to Canelo's catchweight stipulation? Why play that game when he already agreed to fight Rosado at a catchweight? I got frustrated because in one breath he's complaining about how the major champions won't fight him because of his high risk low reward status, but then in the next breath he's acting like he's a "high reward" fighter. It was like he couldn't fight Ward because Ward was too big, but then he wouldn't fight Canelo because Canelo wouldn't come up to 160 and he couldn't fight Cotto because Cotto wouldn't fight him, etc. It just seemed like one big soap opera with Golovkin refusing to make a single concession. Well since you compared G to other other fighters in the past, let me give you examples that you already know of where fighters have made concessions just to get the fight they wanted:

Mayweather against DLH - Came up to his division and conceded on glove and ring size.

Mosley moved up 2 weight classes to fight DLH

Hagler gave up several concessions to SRL to make the fight (ring size, gloves, etc).

Margarito made concessions to fight Pac.

So many examples as I'm sure you know. GGG went from complaining about getting a fight, to becoming a diva over night without winning one meaningful fight.

Honestly I think I know the answer - did anyone except some Golovkin fans critcise Martinez for fighting Cotto over Golovkin for instance or Cotto for fighting Canelo over GGG?

Probably not as I think most fans would agree that GGG would've beat Cotto and Martinez. But you have to remember that Cotto (up 4 weight classes) had already paid his boxing dues to be where he was at that point in his career as did Martinez. If Golovkin had went up and beat someone like Ward, that would've gave him more leverage against Cotto or Martinez.

Golovkin wanted people that have been underdog's to make concessions for him, while he himself never took risk of being an underdog. He was acting like the teenager who wanted the keys to the Benz without putting in any work at a 9 to 5 to chip in for the benz... Lol maybe that's a bad analogy, but I think you get what I'm trying to say. It was like he wanted everything handed to him without actually putting in the work or conceding.

Further I also believe that the vast bulk of the criticism Golovkin receives is far less to do with anything he's done that's particularly faultworthy or different from other fighters and far more to do with the hype he received from HBO and the aggressive criticism of other fighters by some of his fans.

I think you're right for the most part.

[TonyGe]

I don't bet so I don't really understand these numbers. For example you have everyone listed as plus and minus except Golovkin. Is there a reason that you posted his that way but not anyone else's. Could you provide a link to the source of these stats. Thanks in advance.

[Chollo Vista]

I don't bet so I don't really understand these numbers. For example you have everyone listed as plus and minus except Golovkin. Is there a reason that you posted his that way but not anyone else's. Could you provide a link to the source of these stats. Thanks in advance.

Sure, no worries. This site gives a good breakdown on how betting odds work:

https://www.oddsshark.com/boxing/odds

Boxing odds generally look something like this:

Apollo Creed -200
Rocky Balboa +180
This means that Creed is the favorite and Balboa is the underdog. Favorites always have a minus sign (-) before their odds and underdogs have the plus sign (+). In this case if you had $300 to play with, you could throw it all on Creed and if he wins, you’d get a payout of $450 – your $300 is returned, plus your winnings of $150.

On the other hand, if you had faith in Rocky and think he’s going to win, a $300 bet would net you a payout of $840 – you’d get your original $300 back, plus your winnings of $540.

Our Odds Calculator can help you determine how much you would win based on what you decide to wager.

Our boxing odds page shows you the opening line, which is the original betting line set by oddsmakers, followed by the lines at popular sportsbooks. You can scroll through to find a sportsbook that has the odds you like best. Having boxing odds explained in more detail gives you an edge over other bettors who could be taking betting lines blindly.

Now that you know how to read boxing odds, check out our boxing betting guide here.

You can see this same site as a reference for where I got many of my odds in the OP.

There were several fights that weren't on odds shark which mean't I had to go to other sources to find them.

A simple google search of Fighter A vs Fighter B odds should point you to where I got the majority of my data.

If you find conflicting odds, let me know the fight and provide a source and I'll verify and update the OP with the recommended correction. Let me know if you have any questions as I want this to be as transparent as possible.