A Deep look into Mayweather, Pacquiao, Canelo and GGG's Risk History

[Chollo Vista]

As many of you know, betting odds gives a chance to look into how "risky" a fight is "at the time" that it happens which all play a role in evaluating a fighters legacy and greatness. Let's look into some of the most famous, some would even argue "great", fighters in the last 20 years:

(Per Odds Shark)

Mayweather
- Conor McGregor -350
- Andre Berto -3000
- Manny Pacquiao -200
- Marcos Maidana -600
- Marcos Maidana -900
- Canelo Alvarez -300
- Robert Guerrero -600
- Miguel Cotto -700
- Victor Ortiz -500
- Shane Mosley -400
- Juan Manuel Marquez -360
- Ricky Hatton -240
- Oscar De La Hoya -190 or 3 to 2 underdog
- Carlos Baldomir -700
- Zab Judah -500
- Shambra Mitchell -950
- Arturo Gatti -400
- Henry Bruseles -2000
- Corrales - 120
- Castillo -400
- Hernandez? Couldn't find

Pacquiao

-Thurman -120
- Broner -227
- Mathysse -230
- Jeff Horn -600
- Jessie Vargas -900
- Timothy Bradley -245
- Floyd Mayweather Jr. +160
- Chris Algieri -700
- Timothy Bradley -280
- Brandon Rios -550
- Juan Manuel Marquez -220
- Timothy Bradley -450
- Juan Manuel Marquez -1100
- Shane Mosley -850
- Antonio Margarito -450
- Joshua Clottey -600
- Miguel Cotto -270
- Ricky Hatton -225
- Oscar De La Hoya +160
- David Diaz -600
- Juan Manuel Marquez -210
- Marco Antonio Barrera -330
- Jorge Solis -850
- Erik Morales -180
- Oscar Larios -600
- Barrera - Barerra was 3 to 1 favorite
- Ledwaba - was 10 to 1 favorite
- Morales - 110 with Morales as favorite
- Sasakul - Sasakul as favorite? Can anyone confirm


Canelo

- Kovalev -400
- Jacobs -500
- Fielding -2500
- Gennady Golovkin +155
- Gennady Golovkin +150
- Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. -425
- Liam Smith -1400
- Amir Khan -650
- Miguel Cotto -300
- James Kirkland -900
- Erislandy Lara -285
- Alfredo Angulo -670
- Floyd Mayweather +235
- Austin Trout -220
- Josesito Lopez -2000
- Shane Mosley -605
- Kermit Cintron -1200
- Alfonso Gomez -2200
- Ryan Rhodes -890
- Matthew Hatton -1500
- Lovemore N’dou -2000
- Carlos Baldomir -1700
- Luciano Leonel Cuello -1200


Golovkin

Ouma - 14 to 1
Simon - 25 to 1
Proksa - 4 to 1
Rosado - 34 to 1
Ishida - 50 to 1
Macklin - 12 to 1
Stevens - 15 to 1
Adama - 9 to 1
Geale - 7 to 1
Rubio 20 to 1
Murray - 20 to 1
Monroe Jr - 25 to 1
Lemieux - 13 to 1
Wade - 70 to 1
Brook - 7.5 to 1
Jacobs - 4.8 to 1
Canelo - 1.8 to 1
Vanes - 25 to 1
Canelo - 1.9 to 1
Derv - 4.5 to 1
Szeemeta - 42 to 1

Lastly, I wanted to see when these guy's were really good or really bad in betting odds. I tallied when they were an underdog, 5 to 1 or less favorite or 20 to 1 or more favorite. Here's what I got:

Mayweather
- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0 (Possibly Corrales, De La Hoya or Castillo? I can't find supporting data on Corrales/Castillo. I did read that DLH closed as a 3 to 2 favorite, during ring walks. I can't verify accuracy though.
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 11
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 2

Pacquiao
– Bouts in which he was the underdog – 6 (Mayweather, De La Hoya, Barerra, Morales, Sasakul, and Ledwaba).
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 19
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 0

Canelo

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 3 (Mayweather, Golovkin 1 and 2)
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 9
- Bouts in which he was the 20 to 1 favorite or more - 3

Golovkin

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 5 to 1 or less – 5
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 20 to 1 or more - 8


In conclusion:

- Most amount of times as underdog - Pacquiao with 6
- Most amount of times in fights as 5 to 1 favorite or less - Pac with 19
- Most amount of times in fights as 20 to 1 or more favorite - Golovkin with 8

[Chollo Vista]

For context:

Roy was an underdog against Toney... Not sure exact numbers
Hopkins was a 2 to 1 underdog against Trinidad
Leonard was a 2.5 to 1 underdog against Hagler
Ali was a 4 to 1 underdog against Foreman
Ali was a 7 to 1 underdog against Liston

[EDDIE SPERM]

So Alvarez being youngest tied for underdog w/ legendary Pacquiao while Triple Stain mostly favored due to boxing no-hopers? LMAO !

[Chollo Vista]

So Alvarez being youngest tied for underdog w/ legendary Pacquiao while Triple Stain mostly favored due to boxing no-hopers? LMAO !

I updated the list to include Barerra and Thurman for Pacquiao, thus, bringing him to 5. Canelo isn't far behind at 3 though.

[HewJohnson]

Floyd being a -350 favorite to Conor Mcgregor was absurd.
Floyd should’ve been a -5000 favorite. That’s ridiculous.
The man Mcgregor has never had a professional boxing match before that, lmao.
That’s how you know the world is filled much nonsense.

[Thraxox]

Great thread about Underdog history of these fighters.

[Ca$ual Fan]

Pac was an underdog in his 1st 3 div title challenges. He was also an underdog in 2nd morales fight. Was also an underdog in the oDLH and May fight. So that makes it 6. If Thurman counts that makes it 7

[hugh grant]

This is silly. Floyd s never fought outside backyard. He's took the least risks out of anyone. We are talking sven ottke level.

[Chollo Vista]

Pac was an underdog in his 1st 3 div title challenges. He was also an underdog in 2nd morales fight. Was also an underdog in the oDLH and May fight. So that makes it 6. If Thurman counts that makes it 7

Can you provide sources? I found a source for Barerra 1. Please include the others you're talking about so I can update the OP. Right now, I have him at 5

[IronDanHamza]

Pacquaio -225 against Ricky Hatton. Crazy odds some of these.

Marquez 3, -1100, everyone expecting Marquez to get annihilated in a few rounds (including myself) and he arguably won.

Great thing about Boxing, you never really know.