Pacqiuao vs Mayweather: a serious compubox analysis

[bt16]

mayweather struggled with zab's attack in the first 4 rounds of their fight, till zab started slowing down going downhill. zab even nailed pbf with some good shots. pac wont slow down like zab did in the later rounds.. he stays consistent, not to mention that he throws more punches at different angles than zab does, arguably with more power. lets see how well mayweather holds up against someone that'll give him hell all night long...

[Blue Heffner]

This is why I think half the members here have never been inside of the ring before or a fight for that matter.

When you can't get in range, when your opponent is counter punching you or when you miss punches your punch output will diminish. Punching and missing consumes energy, getting counter punched makes you more hesitant and when you're not in range you can't throw flurries.

Exactly.

mayweather struggled with zab's attack in the first 4 rounds of their fight, till zab started slowing down going downhill. zab even nailed pbf with some good shots. pac wont slow down like zab did in the later rounds.. he stays consistent, not to mention that he throws more punches at different angles than zab does, arguably with more power. lets see how well mayweather holds up against someone that'll give him hell all night long...

And if you want to bring up old fights...Pac didn't ever slow down and got out boxed by Marquez in 24 rounds...

[The Great Shark]

pac's punch output will be at an alltime low against floyd...floyd isnt just gonna stand there and let manny unload....

p.s-thats the dumbest way to try to predict a fight.....

Slap on a good no **** to this statement...........ahahha.

[NorvernRob]

Here's the number crunch folks:
In a heads up match up, Floyd would land [(37 x 25.3%) + 15.9]/2 = 12.63 punches per round on Pac, and Pac would land [(67 x 16.4% ) + 28.8]/2 = 19.89 punches per round on Floyd.

Conclusion of the Analysis:

Even though Floyd is more accurate by .5% and his defense is better by 8.9%, Pac's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Pac manages to outland floyd by 7.26 punches per round.

Limits of the Analysis:

- I just looked at the total number of punches and was too lazy to calculate the jabs and power punches separately.
- This analysis does not take into consideration subjective judging criteria.
- To be sure, Floyd's last 5 opponents do not fight like Pac and neither does Pac's last 4 opponents fight like Floyd.

Prediction:

Considering Pac will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, and that Pac punches harder than Floyd, and the limitations of this analysis, I predict that Pac will win a SD or close UD, with the possibility of Pac knocking down Floyd at least once.

Good work on the figures, but what should be taken into account is that they are all based on averages.

Floyd isn't average, he has the best defence in boxing and Pac will land a significantly lower percentage than he does on any other boxer. His output will still be high, it always is - but he's not going to land anywhere near as many clean punches as he has done on DLH/Hatton/Cotto - all virtually stationary targets.

On top of that Pac's high workrate and come forward style will force Floyd to be more active than usual - IMO making it much more even than your numbers suggest.

I favour Floyd slightly in the fight, but there's no way anyone should write Pac off - he has a chance both of outworking and hurting Floyd. Floyd HAS to be more active to keep Pac at bay and I think he'll suprise people.

[bt16]

Exactly.



And if you want to bring up old fights...Pac didn't ever slow down and got out boxed by Marquez in 24 rounds...

very true. i'm not taking anything away from mayweather, but just using zab as an example of a come forward aggressive fighter that gave him trouble. also, since the second marquez fight, pacquiao has greatly improved in almost every aspect of his game.. i dont see him throwing wildly and getting out of position catching hard shots like he did with marquez. marquez even fought pacquiao toe to toe on several occasions.. i dont see mayweather doing that unless he knows he has pacquiao finished; i see him picking punches all night long unless he wears pac down, which is still a big possibility. i definitely dont see him fighting toe to toe with pac and matching his punchrate, which doesnt seem to decline drastically as the rounds go on. lets see how well pacquiao holds up against someone superior to marquez, and how well mayweather holds up against someone with a strong, consistent attack.

[pugay_kamay]

It's exactly what it says it is.

A compubox analysis.

What is so ****** about it?

I think because he's not good in numbers?

[pugay_kamay]

maybe you should go look at what i said.

i said that 2000-10 is 10 years. dec 31 2010 ends the year 2010 and 2010 is the end of the decade. 2000-2009 is 9 years.

i am a genius in math.

1. 2000
2. 2001
3. 2002
4. 2003
5. 2004
6. 2005
7. 2006
8. 2007
9. 2008
10. 2009
11. 2010

there. much simpler for you. no silly arithmetic needed.

fyi: 2000 is the start of the decade btw

Geez! Left you really need to this for enlightenment!

[pugay_kamay]

i said, according to the way yall count it. thats how it would tally up, which equals 11 years.

2000-2001 equals the first year of the new decade completed

january 1 , 2000 to december 31 , 2000 is one year.

january 1 , 2000 to december 31 , 2001 is two.

Damn! Left I think when the Creator spread knowledge to the world this guy is sleeping or maybe ****ting! again!

[Ray*]

I dont get this, You can Mayweather a runner and you expect Manny to outland him??? So Mayrunner is going to get outland while running???

[Ray*]

very true. i'm not taking anything away from mayweather, but just using zab as an example of a come forward aggressive fighter that gave him trouble. also, since the second marquez fight, pacquiao has greatly improved in almost every aspect of his game.. i dont see him throwing wildly and getting out of position catching hard shots like he did with marquez. marquez even fought pacquiao toe to toe on several occasions.. i dont see mayweather doing that unless he knows he has pacquiao finished; i see him picking punches all night long unless he wears pac down, which is still a big possibility. i definitely dont see him fighting toe to toe with pac and matching his punchrate, which doesnt seem to decline drastically as the rounds go on. lets see how well pacquiao holds up against someone superior to marquez, and how well mayweather holds up against someone with a strong, consistent attack.

I like your analysis but please answer me this honestly.. Has Mayweather improve or diminished since he fought Judah back in early 2006??? I seem to be a lot of "Pacquaio has improved since the JMM fight" even though the fight happened in 2008...