Pacqiuao vs Mayweather: a serious compubox analysis

[elgaringo]

compubox stats taken from
- http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/9/16...iance-of-floyd
- http://compuboxonline.com/special_co...man_last_3.pdf

The Stats:

In Floyd's last 5 fights he's thrown an average of 37 punches per round and landed an average of 15.9 punches per round; at a 42.9 connect percentage.

Floyd's opponents landed at connect percentage of 16.4%.

In Pac's last 4 fights he's thrown an average of 67 punches a round and landed an average of 28.8 punches per round; at a 42.4% connect percentage.

Pac's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 25.3%.

The Math

So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round.

Here's the number crunch folks:
In a heads up match up, Floyd would land [(37 x 25.3%) + 15.9]/2 = 12.63 punches per round on Pac, and Pac would land [(67 x 16.4% ) + 28.8]/2 = 19.89 punches per round on Floyd.

Conclusion of the Analysis:

Even though Floyd is more accurate by .5% and his defense is better by 8.9%, Pac's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Pac manages to outland floyd by 7.26 punches per round.

Limits of the Analysis:

- I just looked at the total number of punches and was too lazy to calculate the jabs and power punches separately.
- This analysis does not take into consideration subjective judging criteria.
- To be sure, Floyd's last 5 opponents do not fight like Pac and neither does Pac's last 4 opponents fight like Floyd.

Prediction:

Considering Pac will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, and that Pac punches harder than Floyd, and the limitations of this analysis, I predict that Pac will win a SD or close UD, with the possibility of Pac knocking down Floyd at least once.

Its nice to see the scientific view, but I dont think it'll pan out like this. floyd is a totally different kind of fighter to what pac has ever faced and pacs gonna have to fight better than he ever has to make it even close. let alone win. I fear for him

[Doctor_Tenma]

Numbers won't tell you that Mayweather is a good at clinching and keeping a really good distance.

[toyi]

floyd will dominate manny---end of thread---

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

excellent statistical analysis.

[GTR]

the betting public is smarter than experts.

[PAKYO]

Pac ony needs 10% to make floyd beg "no mas" but Roach is trying to devise a plan to inflict the worst pain on floyd at the longest time. He doesn't want floyd to easily give up and escape punishment from Pac. Floyd needs to pay for duping the boxing world.

[Pullcounter]

Pullcounter, This is an analysis http://www.boxingscene.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=328980.

Yea, comparing Floyd to Mannys past opponents. MUCH more accurate than numbers.

both analysis are valid, but I see holes in his argument

1) you can't really compare cotto to mayweather because they are 2 different fighters, that's why my analysis is better, because I'm comparing floyd to himself.

2) what DS fails to understand is that although cotto got on his bike and started running, pac still swept all those rounds. combine that with the fact that vegas judges like aggression, that means floyd is going to lose a decision if he runs.

3) while true that floyd will have the reach and height advantage, that should be negated by pac's southpaw angles and even if floyd lands the lead right, floyd doesn't punch hard enough and his output is too low to really hurt pac. floyd can set the pace by running, but as I've already pointed out in point #2, floyd won't win fighting like that.

4) I agree w/ DS that floyd doesn't telegragh, and is more accurate, and floyd can punch using angles, but once again, floyd doesn't punch enough and he doesn't have the power to really keep pac off of him.

everything points to a pac victory by outworking floyd.

[Doctor_Tenma]

both analysis are valid, but I see holes in his argument

1) you can't really compare cotto to mayweather because they are 2 different fighters, that's why my analysis is better, because I'm comparing floyd to himself.

2) what DS fails to understand is that although cotto got on his bike and started running, pac still swept all those rounds. combine that with the fact that vegas judges like aggression, that means floyd is going to lose a decision if he runs.

3) while true that floyd will have the reach and height advantage, that should be negated by pac's southpaw angles and even if floyd lands the lead right, floyd doesn't punch hard enough and his output is too low to really hurt pac. floyd can set the pace by running, but as I've already pointed out in point #2, floyd won't win fighting like that.

4) I agree w/ DS that floyd doesn't telegragh, and is more accurate, and floyd can punch using angles, but once again, floyd doesn't punch enough and he doesn't have the power to really keep pac off of him.

everything points to a pac victory by outworking floyd.

W/e you say

[Pullcounter]

Numbers won't tell you that Mayweather is a good at clinching and keeping a really good distance.

actually it does... it's incorporated in his opponent's connect percentage which is low.

but you can't win rounds with defense alone, you gotta win w/ punches, and pac throws too many.

Its nice to see the scientific view, but I dont think it'll pan out like this. floyd is a totally different kind of fighter to what pac has ever faced and pacs gonna have to fight better than he ever has to make it even close. let alone win. I fear for him

I was aiming for a scientific and impartial view.

it's just a numbers crunch, it could be significant or not, but I'm not putting my bias into it at all, that's why it's superior because numbers are impartial.

[Gorillaz]

Not even you believe that BS

can you imagine PAC punishing floyd so bad that we actually start feeling sorry for him in the late rounds? like the other PAC victims?

yea, me neither

ABsolutely. But unlike cotto and JMM, whom I truly wished Pacman would have mercy on, I want the pacmonster to beat the living shiiiiiit out of the self-proclaimed ATG marathoner to kingdom come.

[Gorillaz]

Its nice to see the scientific view, but I dont think it'll pan out like this. floyd is a totally different kind of fighter to what pac has ever faced and pacs gonna have to fight better than he ever has to make it even close. let alone win. I fear for him

I fear for Pac too. Manny is unlike any fighter Marathoner has ever faced in his life, and I am truly afraid Pacman might kill Mayrunner in the ring for real. That will be on his conscience for the rest of his life. Not good if you're as religious as Pacquiao.