Pacqiuao vs Mayweather: a serious compubox analysis

[PirateGorilla]

actually it does... it's incorporated in his opponent's connect percentage which is low.

but you can't win rounds with defense alone, you gotta win w/ punches, and pac throws too many.



I was aiming for a scientific and impartial view.

it's just a numbers crunch, it could be significant or not, but I'm not putting my bias into it at all, that's why it's superior because numbers are impartial.

It was. Don't sweat the hate, clearly said "compubox analysis" but reading comprehension is not a requirement to post on boards.

Good job, different point of view. Biased though, no JMM stats included? Pac's connect rate have been better because his opponents pretty much had nothing to return later in fights. But I bet Floyd's connect rate are consistent through out. Still good analysis.

[Ekscape]

It's exactly what it says it is.

A compubox analysis.

What is so ****** about it?

It's ****** because the TS formulates a prediction based off those specific analysis of punches landed on previous opponents and punches caught by previous opponents... Without factoring in styles, size, reach, weight, speed, defense, offense, stamina, durability... none of that just punch stats with previous opponents... If you dont think that's dumb then i dont know what to tell you

[sycomantz]

We know you're considered genius in Math ! How many years are in a decade again?

maybe you should go look at what i said.

i said that 2000-10 is 10 years. dec 31 2010 ends the year 2010 and 2010 is the end of the decade. 2000-2009 is 9 years.

i am a genius in math.

[Left Hook Tua]

if *****s think the math is wrong, then do it for yourself or come up with a better formula.

never underestimate the power of the *****s.

you're talking about a group of guys who tried to make a decade 11 years long or tried not to count 2000 as part of the decade and count 2010 instead just so that they could still have a glimmer of hope that floyd could win fighter of the decade.

[S A M U R A I]

compubox stats taken from
- http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/9/16...iance-of-floyd
- http://compuboxonline.com/special_co...man_last_3.pdf

The Stats:

In Floyd's last 5 fights he's thrown an average of 37 punches per round and landed an average of 15.9 punches per round; at a 42.9 connect percentage.

Floyd's opponents landed at connect percentage of 16.4%.

In Pac's last 4 fights he's thrown an average of 67 punches a round and landed an average of 28.8 punches per round; at a 42.4% connect percentage.

Pac's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 25.3%.

The Math

So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round.

Here's the number crunch folks:
In a heads up match up, Floyd would land [(37 x 25.3%) + 15.9]/2 = 12.63 punches per round on Pac, and Pac would land [(67 x 16.4% ) + 28.8]/2 = 19.89 punches per round on Floyd.

Conclusion of the Analysis:

Even though Floyd is more accurate by .5% and his defense is better by 8.9%, Pac's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Pac manages to outland floyd by 7.26 punches per round.

Limits of the Analysis:

- I just looked at the total number of punches and was too lazy to calculate the jabs and power punches separately.
- This analysis does not take into consideration subjective judging criteria.
- To be sure, Floyd's last 5 opponents do not fight like Pac and neither does Pac's last 4 opponents fight like Floyd.

Prediction:

Considering Pac will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, and that Pac punches harder than Floyd, and the limitations of this analysis, I predict that Pac will win a SD or close UD, with the possibility of Pac knocking down Floyd at least once.

Reported for being serious.



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[Left Hook Tua]

maybe you should go look at what i said.

i said that 2000-10 is 10 years. 2000-2009 is 9 years.

i am a genius in math.

1. 2000
2. 2001
3. 2002
4. 2003
5. 2004
6. 2005
7. 2006
8. 2007
9. 2008
10. 2009
11. 2010

there. much simpler for you. no silly arithmetic needed.



fyi: 2000 is the start of the decade btw

[Doctor_Tenma]

It's ****** because the TS formulates a prediction based off those specific analysis of punches landed on previous opponents and punches caught by previous opponents... Without factoring in styles, size, reach, weight, speed, defense, offense, stamina, durability... none of that just punch stats with previous opponents... If you dont think that's dumb then i dont know what to tell you

My thoughts exactly.

[THE REED]

It's ****** because the TS formulates a prediction based off those specific analysis of punches landed on previous opponents and punches caught by previous opponents... Without factoring in styles, size, reach, weight, speed, defense, offense, stamina, durability... none of that just punch stats with previous opponents... If you dont think that's dumb then i dont know what to tell you

He said BASED on the numbers Pac is favored by outworking him.

[-MAKAVELLI-]

floyd stans aren't very good with the math thingy

[PirateGorilla]

1. 2000
2. 2001
3. 2002
4. 2003
5. 2004
6. 2005
7. 2006
8. 2007
9. 2008
10. 2009
11. 2010

there. much simpler for you. no silly arithmetic needed.



fyi: 2000 is the start of the decade btw

OWNED.

/thread