Calz would be about a 2.5/1 favorite if they fought tomorrow at 168 and both were fresh. It might be 1.5/1 when it actually has a chance of happening. Depending on how bad Pavlik beats Jermain in the rematch, and how ugly Calzaghe's fight with Hopkins is. I definitely give Pavlik a punching chance to knock Calzaghe out. His chin has been great, but Kessler's power is overrated. He hit Andrade with everything INCLUDING the kitchen sink for 12 rounds and couldn't finish him. Even Joe himself said before the fight that he was not at all concerned with Kessler's power. Pavlik is a big time puncher, but he's got more than that. He's a little slow at times, but if you let up for one second, he throws that bomb that puts you out. All it takes is one punch from Pavlik to change the fight. Joe has shown he's vulnerable to being hit with a straight right hand, what Pavlik specializes in. This could be an ugly one for Joe, looking at it from an IMPARTIAL point of view.
Overall, Joe has the edge in this fight because of versatility, handspeed, and experience, but by sacrificing his defense for more offense, he puts himself in a position for Kelly to possibly change the fight.
Overall, Joe has the edge in this fight because of versatility, handspeed, and experience, but by sacrificing his defense for more offense, he puts himself in a position for Kelly to possibly change the fight.
Comment