One more punch from Andrade and Bute wouldn't be holding his belt right now. Andrade is gonna have to work way back to a title shot now if he doesn't get a rematch.
they may not have the biggest names but they are talented ... ward dirrell dason bradley r. marquez, angulo, perez, demarco seems to be the real deal some good fighters there ....
Ward is promoted by Goosen Tutor.
that is already considered in the equation. I multiply pac's average punches thrown with floyd's opponent's connect percentage and averaged that w/ pac's average punches landed.
please get it in your heads that floyd's opponent's connect percentage already quantifies floyd's defense.
Look why don't you do the same analysis with Hatton and Mayweather? The results will show you why we don't predict fights with stats.
aw man, that's way too much work... I need the stats compiled in a form like in the 2 links I provided in the first post
Aight I'll give you the compiled stats later.
Mayweather vs Hatton a "serious" compubox analysis
compubox stats taken from Hatton's and Mayweather's last 3 fights before their 2007 showdown.
The Stats:
In Hatton's last 3 fights before the Mayweather bout he's thrown an average of 61 punches per round and landed an average of 21.7 punches per round; at a 35.3% connect percentage.
Hatton's opponents landed at connect percentage of 29%.
In Floyd's last 3 fights before the Hatton bout he's thrown an average of 37 punches a round and landed an average of 16.5 punches per round; at a 44.3% connect percentage.
Floyd's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 17%.
The Math
So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round.
Here's the number crunch folks:
In a heads up match up, Floyd would land /2 = 13.61 punches per round on Hatton, and Hatton would land /2 = 16.03 punches per round on Floyd.
Conclusion of the Analysis:
Even though Floyd is more accurate by 9% and his defense is better by 12%, Hatton's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Hatton manages to outland Floyd by 2.42 punches per round.
Prediction:
Considering Hatton will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, I predict that Hatton will win a SD or close UD.
NOW HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED WHEN THEY FOUGHT
Mayweather outlanded Hatton in almost every round and stopped him in the 10th.
Conclusion : Do not predict fights with punch stats.
This analysis is flawed because Floyd is the best defensive fighter Pac would ever fight therefore Pac would land A LOT less punches than usual. You also have to take into account the fact that Pac had trouble chasing Cotto when he decided to use the ring which is Floyd's bread and butter (not to mention Cotto landed a lot of jabs). And Pac has never fought a slick american fighter who would tie him up, break his rhythm and neutralize his offense. It's not just about who is busier or lands more punches per round this sport is not as simple as that. Do the same analysis with Mayweather and Hatton or Margarito and Mosley and you'll see what I mean.
I don't have the stats for hatton and mayweather before their fight
Stats for Hatton : http://www.compuboxonline.com/notes/hatton.shtml
Stats for Mayweather : http://www.hbo.com/boxing/events/2006/1104_baldomir_mayweather/columns/compubox_pre.html (you already have stats for the baldomir and oscar fights)
I'll be waiting for the results.