Pacqiuao vs Mayweather: a serious compubox analysis

Pullcounter where you at? :confused:

Mayweather vs Hatton a "serious" compubox analysis compubox stats taken from Hatton's and Mayweather's last 3 fights before their 2007 showdown. The Stats: In Hatton's last 3 fights before the Mayweather bout he's thrown an average of 61 punches per round and landed an average of 21.7 punches per round; at a 35.3% connect percentage. Hatton's opponents landed at connect percentage of 29%. In Floyd's last 3 fights before the Hatton bout he's thrown an average of 37 punches a round and landed an average of 16.5 punches per round; at a 44.3% connect percentage. Floyd's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 17%. The Math So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round. Here's the number crunch folks: In a heads up match up, Floyd would land /2 = 13.61 punches per round on Hatton, and Hatton would land /2 = 16.03 punches per round on Floyd. Conclusion of the Analysis: Even though Floyd is more accurate by 9% and his defense is better by 12%, Hatton's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Hatton manages to outland Floyd by 2.42 punches per round. Prediction: Considering Hatton will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, I predict that Hatton will win a SD or close UD. NOW HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED WHEN THEY FOUGHT Mayweather outlanded Hatton in almost every round and stopped him in the 10th. Conclusion : Do not predict fights with punch stats.

i strongly agree with this one. floyds defense wont kill pac. pacs offense will kill floyd.

that cam is very very dark yeah its the middle of the night here, did wanna turn up the lights.

that cam is very very dark

You are making an assumption about their styles though saying it is a wash, that is a flaw in your whole analysis. no, I'm saying its beyond the scope of this analysis... not even you know what the result of the clash of their styles will be. BUT based on the punchstats, pac will outwork floyd

You made an analysis based on numbers. I can't express how stupid that is. BUT, according to Ellerbe, "The numbers don't lie", lol. Just thought that was appropriate given the previous two statements.

This is why I think half the members here have never been inside of the ring before or a fight for that matter. When you can't get in range, when your opponent is counter punching you or when you miss punches your punch output will diminish. Punching and missing consumes energy, getting counter punched makes you more hesitant and when you're not in range you can't throw flurries. i can see this fight similar to round 1-3 of floyd-judah fight. pac will be countering floyd's jabs with right hooks and he will be landing straight lefts to floyd's face. floyds face will be swollen. pac is better than judah, he will not let floyd take a breather and will not gas out after 4 rounds

compubox stats taken from - http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/9/16/1033897/compubox-the-brilliance-of-floyd - http://compuboxonline.com/special_content/pac_man_last_3.pdf The Stats: In Floyd's last 5 fights he's thrown an average of 37 punches per round and landed an average of 15.9 punches per round; at a 42.9 connect percentage. Floyd's opponents landed at connect percentage of 16.4%. In Pac's last 4 fights he's thrown an average of 67 punches a round and landed an average of 28.8 punches per round; at a 42.4% connect percentage. Pac's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 25.3%. The Math So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round. Here's the number crunch folks: In a heads up match up, Floyd would land /2 = 12.63 punches per round on Pac, and Pac would land /2 = 19.89 punches per round on Floyd. Conclusion of the Analysis: Even though Floyd is more accurate by .5% and his defense is better by 8.9%, Pac's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Pac manages to outland floyd by 7.26 punches per round. Limits of the Analysis: - I just looked at the total number of punches and was too lazy to calculate the jabs and power punches separately. - This analysis does not take into consideration subjective judging criteria. - To be sure, Floyd's last 5 opponents do not fight like Pac and neither does Pac's last 4 opponents fight like Floyd. Prediction: Considering Pac will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, and that Pac punches harder than Floyd, and the limitations of this analysis, I predict that Pac will win a SD or close UD, with the possibility of Pac knocking down Floyd at least once. Try getting the connect percentage of Mayweather's SLOWEST opponent say...Baldomir, that guy connected 67 power punches in 12 rounds against Mayweather. Take Hatton; despite the smothering and clinching, the guy was able to land 52 power punches on Floyd, and we all saw the hand-speed difference between Hatton and Pacquiao when they fought. Take Judah. When Judah was being offensive minded (1-5 rounds) he landed 50 punches in 5 rounds, a big percentage of which are power shots (mostly straight lefts, Pacquiao's money shot). Thing is, Judah's output diminished in the later rounds. Pacquiao's handspeed's comparable to Judah's but Pacquiao's punch output doesn't go down. So at Judah-level speed and punch output, Pacquiao stands to land AT LEAST 80 powershots on Mayweather. Compare Marquez' post-fight face with 183 power shots from Mayweather, with his post-fight faces against Pacquiao who only landed 100 and 114 power shots on him (when Pacquiao only had a predictable left straight) I don't think Mayweather has the power will deter Pacman's assault. Pacman has the footspeed, handspeed, and style to land a considerable amount of powershots on Mayweather and Pacquiao has the power to boot, to keep Mayweather defensive minded, thus keeping Mayweather's power punch output at a minimum.

that is beyond the scope of this compubox analysis... nobody knows how their styles will interact, not even you, therefore its a wash. but based on the numbers pac will outwork floyd. You are making an assumption about their styles though saying it is a wash, that is a flaw in your whole analysis.

using compubox too determine the outcome of a fight :rofl: i cant stop laughing at how retarded that is :tool: :Flush:

No you have not addressed them because the situation is not a wash, that is you judging that it is a wash so your analysis is flawed by that judgement. You do not know how that will intereact, which is why I called your stas meaningless and your analysis flawed. You can do nothing with this flaw, so you wasted your time. that is beyond the scope of this compubox analysis... nobody knows how their styles will interact, not even you, therefore its a wash. but based on the numbers pac will outwork floyd.

if you're seriously arguing over one person's personal analysis, you're a ****in baby. its basically his own analysis, and if you're gonna argue with him like he's nostradamus then you can have a bottle.

I've already addressed them all, go back and look at the thread. 1) a larger sample may not yield better statistics in this instance because floyd and pac don't fight the same as they did 5 years ago. 2) I already acknowledge that pac and floyd have unique styles in the limitations section of the first post, but this applies to both floyd and pac, LIKE I'VE ALREADY SAID: ITS A WASH, NEITHER FLOYD NOR PAC GETS AN ADVANTAGE BASED ON THE UNIQUENESS OF THEIR STYLES, that is to say, the fact that their styles are unique cancels each other out. I could put the variables X (floyd's uniqueness) and Y (pac's uniqueness) into the equation but X cancels out Y and vice versa anyways. No you have not addressed them because the situation is not a wash, that is you judging that it is a wash so your analysis is flawed by that judgement. You do not know how that will intereact, which is why I called your stas meaningless and your analysis flawed. You can do nothing with this flaw, so you wasted your time.

No you have not addressed a single one, and that is why they are meaningless stats and the whole analysis is flawed. I've already addressed them all, go back and look at the thread. If you believe in what you are saying I have a bridge to sell you~. The larger the sample the better the statistics. They are different fighters that is the main reason it is flawed from the jump Manny's last three opponents fight nothing like Floyd so using them as a basis for comparison is why the whole analysis is flawed. 1) a larger sample may not yield better statistics in this instance because floyd and pac don't fight the same as they did 5 years ago. 2) I already acknowledge that pac and floyd have unique styles in the limitations section of the first post, but this applies to both floyd and pac, LIKE I'VE ALREADY SAID: ITS A WASH, NEITHER FLOYD NOR PAC GETS AN ADVANTAGE BASED ON THE UNIQUENESS OF THEIR STYLES, that is to say, the fact that their styles are unique cancels each other out. I could put the variables X (floyd's uniqueness) and Y (pac's uniqueness) into the equation but X cancels out Y and vice versa anyways.

I have addressed all your criticisms, my analysis still stands. I don't know how I'm lying about the numbers, I takes some numbers, run them through a formula and more numbers come out. if you think i didn't use the same formula for floyd and pac, then do the numbers yourself. agreed, but if you go too far back w/ the sample size then you skew the results because both fighters don't fight the same as they did 5 years ago. No you have not addressed a single one, and that is why they are meaningless stats and the whole analysis is flawed. If you believe in what you are saying I have a bridge to sell you~. The larger the sample the better the statistics. They are different fighters that is the main reason it is flawed from the jump Manny's last three opponents fight nothing like Floyd so using them as a basis for comparison is why the whole analysis is flawed.

aw man, that's way too much work... I need the stats compiled in a form like in the 2 links I provided in the first post Aight I'll give you the compiled stats later.

why not? he let every other fighter in his career do that. Thats how Oscar, Hatton, and even Marquez landed blows. They all landed a very low percentage of blows and certainly nothing meaningful. No fighter goes through a fight without getting hit at least one time.

No you have not, you have claimed to but you refuse to accept the flaws with your analysis. Your stats and analysis are meaningless at best~ Numbers don't lie, but people using them to explain or predict certainly can. I have addressed all your criticisms, my analysis still stands. I don't know how I'm lying about the numbers, I takes some numbers, run them through a formula and more numbers come out. if you think i didn't use the same formula for floyd and pac, then do the numbers yourself. I'm gonna be rich, RICH I tell ya. Nah, but seriously it wasn't too bad as far as formulas go. The thing is, if you watched the first 4 rounds of Floyd/Zab, you'd never guess Floyd would win the next 8. He's very good at thinking on his feet and adapting to whatever his opponent is doing. The only time he's not done that was in the first Castillo fight, when he was injured, and he came back in the rematch and handled business. I don't doubt that floyd can adapt, but seeing as zab was included in the sample pool, that has been incorporated in the calculation. One thing I can say though, is you can't multiply a guy's average punches thrown and use it in a formula, when the guy is going to fight a counter puncher like Floyd, who will be dropping that number. Look at what happened to Calzaghe's numbers against Hopkins, or Williams' numbers against Quintana. When you're getting consistently countered, you throw less, period. Like I've already said, floyd's defense (floyd's opponent's connect percentage)has already been incorporated in the formula. Also your sample size in very small, with such a small sample size really hard to gather any real meaning. agreed, but if you go too far back w/ the sample size then you skew the results because both fighters don't fight the same as they did 5 years ago. Stats for Hatton : http://www.compuboxonline.com/notes/hatton.shtml Stats for Mayweather : http://www.hbo.com/boxing/events/2006/1104_baldomir_mayweather/columns/compubox_pre.html (you already have stats for the baldomir and oscar fights) I'll be waiting for the results. aw man, that's way too much work... I need the stats compiled in a form like in the 2 links I provided in the first post