A Deep look into Mayweather, Pacquiao, Canelo and GGG's Risk History

[Chollo Vista]

Loma is never fighting Pac at 140, and I thought he made that clear already. Fight is not happening.

Fine by me

Doesn't change the fact that exceptional fighters are less likely to be underdogs since they're less likely to face opponents who are a risk to them. You made the assumption that odds without context could be used as a way to judge a fighter's legacy

Do I really need to list all the ATG's that have all been underdog's at a point or another in their respective careers?

Come on man. Let's not go down that road. Just accept the data for what it is.

If a thread like this makes a fighter that you like look bad, get mad at that fighter and challenge them to take more risks, don't spend time to try and undermine the data. Even though Pac took losses, a thread like this speaks to his level of greatness; same as Canelo considering his age. Not to say odds are the only thing that make a fighter great as there are other considerations, but it does help paint a picture.

[KingHippo]

Do I really need to list all the ATG's that have all been underdog's at a point or another in their respective careers?

Come on man. Let's not go down that road. Just accept the data for what it is.

You're really struggling with that context thing, are you?

[Chollo Vista]

You're really struggling with that context thing, are you?

Context when it comes to who?

Monday morning quarterbacking is a beautiful thing. But if it really worked, those Monday morning QBs would be rich

[Ca$ual Fan]

I listed 5 fights in the OP that Pac was the underdog for. I'm asking you to provide sources for the other 2 fights you're talking about since you said he has 7.

It took me a lot of trouble with this one. I just had them out of memory but sources are difficult to find

Betting odds

https://www.boxingscene.com/charles-jay-line-pacquiao-morales--2889

Predictions

https://www.boxingscene.com/boxingscene-staff-predictions-manny-pacquiao-vs-erik-morales--2872

Please don’t ask me about the Sasakul fight. The fight was held in Thailand. Both were like anonymous in the boxing world during that time. Sasakul was a seasoned fighter while Pac was just a mere unknown prospect (and a teenager) fighting away from home so it would be obvious who the underdog was. Can’t provide sources though

[Chollo Vista]

It took me a lot of trouble with this one. I just had them out of memory but sources are difficult to find

Betting odds

https://www.boxingscene.com/charles-jay-line-pacquiao-morales--2889

Predictions

https://www.boxingscene.com/boxingscene-staff-predictions-manny-pacquiao-vs-erik-morales--2872

Please don’t ask me about the Sasakul fight. The fight was held in Thailand. Both were like anonymous in the boxing world during that time. Sasakul was a seasoned fighter while Pac was just a mere unknown prospect (and a teenager) fighting away from home so it would be obvious who the underdog was. Can’t provide sources though

Thanks, I just updated the OP... The Sasakul fight was actually for the WBC

[Madison Boxing]

I don't see canelo taking a lot of risks considering the judges are paid off and he's allowed to pump himself full of drugs too. It's easy to take tough fights on paper when you know judges have given you a 4 round head start. He lost twice to ggg, lara and Jacobs fights its debatable whether he won, he was losing to trout genuinely before them ****** open scorecards made trout change tactics.

[MUNG]

i thought this thread was about std's

[O Prophet]

So Lil G doesn’t belong in the same sentence as Pac, May, and Nelo? Who would have thought!

[Chollo Vista]

I don't see canelo taking a lot of risks considering the judges are paid off and he's allowed to pump himself full of drugs too. It's easy to take tough fights on paper when you know judges have given you a 4 round head start. He lost twice to ggg, lara and Jacobs fights its debatable whether he won, he was losing to trout genuinely before them ****** open scorecards made trout change tactics.

- Most amount of times in fights as 20 to 1 or more favorite - Golovkin with 8

What do you think the odds will tell us if we went higher? 30 to 1, 40 to 1, 50 to 1, 70 to 1, etc?

[icha]

As many of you know, betting odds gives a chance to look into how "risky" a fight is "at the time" that it happens which all play a role in evaluating a fighters legacy and greatness. Let's look into some of the most famous, some would even argue "great", fighters in the last 20 years:

(Per Odds Shark)

Mayweather
- Conor McGregor -350
- Andre Berto -3000
- Manny Pacquiao -200
- Marcos Maidana -600
- Marcos Maidana -900
- Canelo Alvarez -300
- Robert Guerrero -600
- Miguel Cotto -700
- Victor Ortiz -500
- Shane Mosley -400
- Juan Manuel Marquez -360
- Ricky Hatton -240
- Oscar De La Hoya -190 or 3 to 2 underdog
- Carlos Baldomir -700
- Zab Judah -500
- Shambra Mitchell -950
- Arturo Gatti -400
- Henry Bruseles -2000
- Corrales - 120
- Castillo ? Couldn't find
- Hernandez? Couldn't find

Pacquiao

-Thurman +120
- Broner -227
- Mathysse -230
- Jeff Horn -600
- Jessie Vargas -900
- Timothy Bradley -245
- Floyd Mayweather Jr. +160
- Chris Algieri -700
- Timothy Bradley -280
- Brandon Rios -550
- Juan Manuel Marquez -220
- Timothy Bradley -450
- Juan Manuel Marquez -1100
- Shane Mosley -850
- Antonio Margarito -450
- Joshua Clottey -600
- Miguel Cotto -270
- Ricky Hatton -225
- Oscar De La Hoya +160
- David Diaz -600
- Juan Manuel Marquez -210
- Marco Antonio Barrera -330
- Jorge Solis -850
- Erik Morales -180
- Oscar Larios -600
- Barrera - Barerra was 3 to 1 favorite
- Ledwaba - was 10 to 1 favorite
- Morales - 110 with Morales as favorite
- Sasakul - Sasakul as favorite? Can anyone confirm


Canelo

- Kovalev -400
- Jacobs -500
- Fielding -2500
- Gennady Golovkin +155
- Gennady Golovkin +150
- Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. -425
- Liam Smith -1400
- Amir Khan -650
- Miguel Cotto -300
- James Kirkland -900
- Erislandy Lara -285
- Alfredo Angulo -670
- Floyd Mayweather +235
- Austin Trout -220
- Josesito Lopez -2000
- Shane Mosley -605
- Kermit Cintron -1200
- Alfonso Gomez -2200
- Ryan Rhodes -890
- Matthew Hatton -1500
- Lovemore N’dou -2000
- Carlos Baldomir -1700
- Luciano Leonel Cuello -1200


Golovkin

Ouma - 14 to 1
Simon - 25 to 1
Proksa - 4 to 1
Rosado - 34 to 1
Ishida - 50 to 1
Macklin - 12 to 1
Stevens - 15 to 1
Adama - 9 to 1
Geale - 7 to 1
Rubio 20 to 1
Murray - 20 to 1
Monroe Jr - 25 to 1
Lemieux - 13 to 1
Wade - 70 to 1
Brook - 7.5 to 1
Jacobs - 4.8 to 1
Canelo - 1.8 to 1
Vanes - 25 to 1
Canelo - 1.9 to 1
Derv - 4.5 to 1
Szeemeta - 42 to 1

Lastly, I wanted to see when these guy's were really good or really bad in betting odds. I tallied when they were an underdog, 5 to 1 or less favorite or 20 to 1 or more favorite. Here's what I got:

Mayweather
- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0 (Possibly Corrales, De La Hoya or Castillo? I can't find supporting data on Corrales/Castillo. I did read that DLH closed as a 3 to 2 favorite, during ring walks. I can't verify accuracy though.
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 10
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 2

Pacquiao
– Bouts in which he was the underdog – 7 (Mayweather, De La Hoya, Barerra, Morales, Sasakul, Thurman and Ledwaba).
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 19
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 0

Canelo

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 3 (Mayweather, Golovkin 1 and 2)
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 9
- Bouts in which he was the 20 to 1 favorite or more - 3

Golovkin

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 5 to 1 or less – 5
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 20 to 1 or more - 8


In conclusion:

- Most amount of times as underdog - Pacquiao with 7
- Most amount of times in fights as 5 to 1 favorite or less - Pac with 16
- Most amount of times in fights as 20 to 1 or more favorite - Golovkin with 8

canelo vs miguel vazquez 2 was also considered almost 50-50, they fought twice for a reason, altough they were both prospects at the time, but highly praised prospects...