A Deep look into Mayweather, Pacquiao, Canelo and GGG's Risk History

[xxlefthookxx]

Being favored is merely the view that you are better than your opposition. It doesn't mean that GGG wasn't a good fighter, just that nobody at middleweight could touch him. Nobody that Mayweather chose to fought post DLH was given a chance. Pac was a tricky one...because he kept rising in weight and fighting 'name' opponents such as DLH and MW..plus, he had been shown to be beatable.
Noone is going to be favored over Canelo because 1. You can't win a decision against him 2. He has a great chin, so the fight will go to a decision. 3. Every move he makes will be considered by haters and bookies to be 'calculated' 4. He is a great fighter.
Odds do not make a fighter great or not. Odds determine how many bouts were highly anticipated bouts by true fans and how much begging it takes by bookies to draw attention to the bout. By that measure (odds of less than 3-1 or as an underdog)

Mayweather at WW: Total 3 DLH, Hatton, Pac
Canelo: Total 5 GGG x 2, Trout, Lara, Mayweather
GGG: Total 2 (Canelo)
Pac: Total 15 (too many to name)

That is why Pac is a beloved figure. He took far more bouts that were perceived to be highly competitive...bouts that the public would appreciate and want to see...than the other 3 listed here COMBINED.

[KingHippo]

Lomachenko will probably never fight as an underdog because of how good he is. Don't get this "logic" at all.

[TonyGe]

As many of you know, betting odds gives a chance to look into how "risky" a fight is "at the time" that it happens which all play a role in evaluating a fighters legacy and greatness. Let's look into some of the most famous, some would even argue "great", fighters in the last 20 years:

(Per Odds Shark)

Mayweather
- Conor McGregor -350
- Andre Berto -3000
- Manny Pacquiao -200
- Marcos Maidana -600
- Marcos Maidana -900
- Canelo Alvarez -300
- Robert Guerrero -600
- Miguel Cotto -700
- Victor Ortiz -500
- Shane Mosley -400
- Juan Manuel Marquez -360
- Ricky Hatton -240
- Oscar De La Hoya -190 or 3 to 2 underdog
- Carlos Baldomir -700
- Zab Judah -500
- Shambra Mitchell -950
- Arturo Gatti -400
- Henry Bruseles -2000
- Corrales - 120
- Castillo ? Couldn't find
- Hernandez? Couldn't find

Pacquiao

-Thurman +120
- Broner -227
- Mathysse -230
- Jeff Horn -600
- Jessie Vargas -900
- Timothy Bradley -245
- Floyd Mayweather Jr. +160
- Chris Algieri -700
- Timothy Bradley -280
- Brandon Rios -550
- Juan Manuel Marquez -220
- Timothy Bradley -450
- Juan Manuel Marquez -1100
- Shane Mosley -850
- Antonio Margarito -450
- Joshua Clottey -600
- Miguel Cotto -270
- Ricky Hatton -225
- Oscar De La Hoya +160
- David Diaz -600
- Juan Manuel Marquez -210
- Marco Antonio Barrera -330
- Jorge Solis -850
- Erik Morales -180
- Oscar Larios -600
- Barrera - Barerra was 3 to 1 favorite
- Ledwaba - was 10 to 1 favorite


Canelo

- Kovalev -400
- Jacobs -500
- Fielding -2500
- Gennady Golovkin +155 - - -
- Gennady Golovkin +150
- Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. -425
- Liam Smith -1400
- Amir Khan -650
- Miguel Cotto -300
- James Kirkland -900
- Erislandy Lara -285
- Alfredo Angulo -670
- Floyd Mayweather +235
- Austin Trout -220
- Josesito Lopez -2000
- Shane Mosley -605
- Kermit Cintron -1200
- Alfonso Gomez -2200
- Ryan Rhodes -890
- Matthew Hatton -1500
- Lovemore N’dou -2000
- Carlos Baldomir -1700
- Luciano Leonel Cuello -1200


Golovkin

Ouma - 14 to 1
Simon - 25 to 1
Proksa - 4 to 1
Rosado - 34 to 1
Ishida - 50 to 1
Macklin - 12 to 1
Stevens - 15 to 1
Adama - 9 to 1
Geale - 7 to 1
Rubio 20 to 1
Murray - 20 to 1
Monroe Jr - 25 to 1
Lemieux - 13 to 1
Wade - 70 to 1
Brook - 7.5 to 1
Jacobs - 4.8 to 1
Canelo - 1.8 to 1
Vanes - 25 to 1
Canelo - 1.9 to 1
Derv - 4.5 to 1
Szeemeta - 42 to 1

Lastly, I wanted to see when these guy's were really good or really bad in betting odds. I tallied when they were an underdog, 5 to 1 or less favorite or 20 to 1 or more favorite. Here's what I got:

Mayweather
- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0 (Possibly Corrales, De La Hoya or Castillo? I can't find supporting data on Corrales/Castillo. I did read that DLH closed as a 3 to 2 favorite, during ring walks. I can't verify accuracy though.
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 10
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 2

Pacquiao
– Bouts in which he was the underdog – 5 (Mayweather, De La Hoya, Barerra, Thurman and Ledwaba).
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 17
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 0

Canelo

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 3 (Mayweather, Golovkin 1 and 2)
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 9
- Bouts in which he was the 20 to 1 favorite or more - 3

Golovkin

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 5 to 1 or less – 5
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 20 to 1 or more - 8


In conclusion:

- Most amount of times as underdog - Pacquiao with 5
- Most amount of times in fights as 5 to 1 favorite or less - Pac with 16
- Most amount of times in fights as 20 to 1 or more favorite - Golovkin with 8

Interesting. Wonder what the odds would have been regarding a fighter like SRR. He had over 200 and probably favored in all but a couple of them. I would guess that he would be favored by the odds makers in 180 or 190 of them.

[Chollo Vista]

Lomachenko will probably never fight as an underdog because of how good he is. Don't get this "logic" at all.

I don't think Loma will the favorite against Pac at 140, but that's besides the point.

Being the underdog isn't the end all be all. 5 to 1 or less is a good fight.

[KingHippo]

I don't think Loma will the favorite against Pac at 140, but that's besides the point.

That's not a probable fight.

Being the underdog isn't the end all be all. 5 to 1 or less is a good fight.

You're the one who made this thread.

[Chollo Vista]

Interesting. Wonder what the odds would have been regarding a fighter like SRR. He had over 200 and probably favored in all but a couple of them. I would guess that he would be favored by the odds makers in 180 or 190 of them.

Can you post data on the odds of SRR top 25 greatest fights?

Ali was a 7 to 1 underdog against Liston and 4 to 1 underdog against Foreman.

The data I posted is just data. But it does speak to the atmospherics of a fight leading up to the opening bell and how people feel about the competitiveness of the fight.

I think 5 to 1 or less is reasonable for good fights.

1 to 1 is great.

Kovalev vs Ward was 1 to 1 if I'm not mistaken. But it was literally the best against the best with both taking great risk

[Chollo Vista]

That's not a probable fight.



You're the one who made this thread.

Why is it not probable? Pac is down. Pac isn't asking Loma to do anything he, himself, hasn't already done.

I know I made the thread. It's not subjective data in any way. It's factual objective data that gives us a picture of "risk".

If Loma fights Pac, he would be taking reasonable risk. Nothing that hasn't already been done though

[Ca$ual Fan]

Can you provide sources? I found a source for Barerra 1. Please include the others you're talking about so I can update the OP. Right now, I have him at 5

That’s a deep history of sources we need to search for. Which fights in particular are you looking for?

[Chollo Vista]

That’s a deep history of sources we need to search for. Which fights in particular are you looking for?

I listed 5 fights in the OP that Pac was the underdog for. I'm asking you to provide sources for the other 2 fights you're talking about since you said he has 7.

[KingHippo]

Why is it not probable? Pac is down. Pac isn't asking Loma to do anything he, himself, hasn't already done.

Loma is never fighting Pac at 140, and I thought he made that clear already. Fight is not happening.

I know I made the thread. It's not subjective data in any way. It's factual objective data that gives us a picture of "risk".

Doesn't change the fact that exceptional fighters are less likely to be underdogs since they're less likely to face opponents who are a risk to them. You made the assumption that odds without context could be used as a way to judge a fighter's legacy.