Deontay Wilder vs Anthony Joshua Breakdown & Prediction

[Ray*]

I disagree. Joshua could easily outbox Wilder since he is the better inside and outside fighter.

We shall see, the fight is soon upon us. I don’t mind being proven wrong if it meant laughing at my fellow American posters on here (Those crying about ducking).

[jup11223]

If you would’ve asked most boxing fans a couple months ago who would win between Joshua and Wilder, the vote would be a majority in favor of Joshua by KO. Now, after knocking out former WBC Champion Bermane Stiverne in the early first round in brutal fashion, you have many favoring Wilder to stop Joshua in the early rounds. But after watching countless footage and fights of both men and analyzing each of their resumes and skill sets, I don’t think the ball should be in Wilder’s favor if/when they do fight each other.

Resume

First, let’s take a look at both men’s resume. Wilder’s top four best wins are against Stiverne (who he has beaten twice), Spilka, Washington, and Aerola. Joshua’s top four best wins are against Kitchsko, Whyte, Martin, and Takkam. As you can see, by comparing both fighter’s resume, it is very clear that Joshua has the better resume by a mile. Joshua’s win against Wlad is ten times better than Stiverne which is Wilder’s best win. I also consider Whyte and Takkam to be head and shoulders above Aerola, Washington, and Stiverne. So, I believe the experience advantage is in Joshua’s favor since he has fought better fighters compared to Wilder. I understand that the Wlad that Joshua fought was out of his prime but I still hold that win in higher regards because that Wlad is clearly better than any fighter Wilder has fought. I also believe that the Wlad from the Joshua fight would beat Wilder(that is a debate for another time)

Skills and Physicality

Now, let’s look at the skills and physicality of both men. Wilder is 6”7 with an 83” reach while Anthony Joshua is 6”6 with an 82” reach. Wilder is the taller fighter with more reach while Anthony Joshua is the physically stronger fighter (Joshua weighs in at 250 while Wilder weighs in a 227.) Both men have immense punching power (Wilder has won 38 of his 39 bouts by KO and Joshua has won all 20 of his fights by KO) Looking at both, I would say Wilder has the better raw power compared to Joshua but it is not by much. If I was to rate both fighter’s power on a scale from 1 to 10, it would be Wilder with 9.5 and Joshua with a solid 9. Wilder wins in the departments of stamina, hand speed, athleticism, height, reach, power (not by much), and he also has a pretty good jab and has improved it immensely. But outside of those categories he doesn’t do anything else better than Joshua. Joshua has the better footwork, balance, defense, jab, tools, combinations, and he is able to knock his opponents out in more of a variety of ways.

Conclusion/Who would win?

I have this fight 60/40 in favor of Joshua. I think Joshua is the more skilled and polished fighter plus he has the advantage in experience since he has fought much better fighters. Now, let me be clear, it is not Wilder’s fault that his potential best opponents all got busted for PEDs. We just cannot give him credit for fights that didn’t happen. Povetkin and Ortiz are levels above Stiverne, Washington, Spilka, and Aerola so I don’t know if Wilder would’ve won those fights or not. Sure, Wilder has great one-punch power but we have seen, in the past, that when a fighter steps up in competition their KO% goes down.

Now, there are some flaws that Joshua have that Wilder could exploit. I know many of you are thinking, “Well, what about when Wlad dropped Joshua with a right hand? That’s Wilder’s bread and butter?” You are correct but Wlad punches with better technique and he doesn’t telegraph his right hand like Wilder does. And let’s not forget that Wlad is one of the top 10 hardest punching heavyweights in boxing history with a better resume compared to Wilder. What’s so impressive about Joshua in that bout against Wlad is the fact that he got up, recovered, and ended up stopping Wlad. I don’t think Wilder would’ve been able to do the same due to the fact that no fighter has ever taken him into deep waters. Joshua does have stamina issues which could potentially put him in harms way against Wilder but he makes up for it with his superior boxing skill set. I also believe that the Wladimir fight made Joshua a much better fighter. I noticed in the Takkam fight that Joshua wasn’t getting hit with the straight right as much which is essential against a guy like Wilder.

Wilder may be the better athlete with the better power but there are a lot more flaws that Joshua can exploit compared to the flaws that Wilder could exploit against Joshua. For one, Wilder has a tendency to be off balance when he throws punches. Don’t believe me? Go back and watch Wilder vs Spitzka, Wilder vs Stiverne 1, and Wilder vs Molina. It wouldn’t take much for Joshua to counter and drop Wilder who gets clumsy at times. I’ve also noticed that Wilder has a tendency to throw punches with his chin up. The first thing a boxer learns when he starts boxing is to never leave your chin up. Always keep your chin tucked with your guard up. We saw what happened to Wlad when Joshua hit him with an uppercut. This particular tendency would put Wilder in the line of fire against Joshua’s uppercuts which could potentially lead to a KO. Wilder’s footwork has progressed but it’s still below average compared to other boxers. Footwork and balance is essential in boxing especially in the heavyweight division. What’s impressive about Wilder is how good of a finisher he is. When Wilder has you hurt, he goes in for the kill. That’s fine, so long as you don’t go in swinging wildly. Did I also forget to mention that Joshua is the better counterpuncher with better accuracy? I think if Wilder was to try to go in and windmill against Joshua he would get countered and potentially stopped. Joshua has too much of a high boxing iq to just sit there and let Wilder T off on him like that. All in all this is a 60/40 fight favoring Joshua in my opinion. The lack of quality opposition will come back and haunt Wilder, and Joshua is just the better overall fighter. Thoughts?

Great breakdown...i agree on all points made

[Sheldon312]

Great breakdown...i agree on all points made

It's just baffling how everybody is making it seem as if this is a 50/50 fight. Looking at both men's body of work it is clean that Joshua should get the benefit of the doubt

[Sheldon312]

We shall see, the fight is soon upon us. I don’t mind being proven wrong if it meant laughing at my fellow American posters on here (Those crying about ducking).

If anything Hearn is making it seem like Joshua is ducking.

[sotgoda]

It's just baffling how everybody is making it seem as if this is a 50/50 fight. Looking at both men's body of work it is clean that Joshua should get the benefit of the doubt

It is not clear that AJ gets the benefit of doubt. Wilder does a lot of things better. AJ has better combinations, uppercut and weight. But combinations only matter if someone is standing in front of you.

Wilder does most if not all the rest of the remaining items better - more agile, better movement although clumsy footwork, better jab, better right hand, more stamina, more power. Wilder is much better than AJ on the backfoot - AJ's is non-existent. AJ is marginally better on the front foot.

These are my reasons why I say Wilder wins. If the roles were reversed, I will say the same for AJ based on these tools. Now can either guy knock the other out? Of course. But comparing tools to tools - Wilder has more.

[Sheldon312]

It is not clear that AJ gets the benefit of doubt. Wilder does a lot of things better. AJ has better combinations, uppercut and weight. But combinations only matter if someone is standing in front of you.

Wilder does most if not all the rest of the remaining items better - more agile, better movement although clumsy footwork, better jab, better right hand, more stamina, more power. Wilder is much better than AJ on the backfoot - AJ's is non-existent. AJ is marginally better on the front foot.

These are my reasons why I say Wilder wins. If the roles were reversed, I will say the same for AJ based on these tools. Now can either guy knock the other out? Of course. But comparing tools to tools - Wilder has more.

You are obviously blind. Aj throws the better combinations, better at applying pressure, has better balance, can cut off the ring better, jab is about equal, and AJ can knock you out in so many different ways compared to Wilder who can only do it using his right. Only advantage Wilder has is Power and Athleticism.

[sotgoda]

You are obviously blind. Aj throws the better combinations, better at applying pressure, has better balance, can cut off the ring better, jab is about equal, and AJ can knock you out in so many different ways compared to Wilder who can only do it using his right. Only advantage Wilder has is Power and Athleticism.

You are the blind one. I gave AJ credit for combinations. He is not better at applying pressure - a guy who cannot even cut off the ring. lol... he has better balance - that is correct. I gave him credit for that too as part of his fundamentals. Does AJ also have better stamina? Lol...... very funny.

Jab is not equal - only you will state that. Wilder has always had a better jab. AJ can knock guys out in many different ways. How exactly? And how is that different from Wilder. Please, take a look at Wilder's highlights before talking crap. Most of AJ's knockouts have come via multiple shots - not a single. I'd take Wilder's approach anytime anyday... hopefully you can remove your blinders for once. Peace!

[Ray*]

If anything Hearn is making it seem like Joshua is ducking.

I really don’t care what it looks like to casuals, a fight like this doesn’t just happens next, not especially with the sort of money each fighter would demand. It’s all good and dandy saying make it next, but then fighters fight for money and that fight happening next makes both fighters less money than if it happens after a proper build up, they have already started building it up, Wilder is fighting Breazeale next (Connection to Joshua is there) and Joshua would fight someone connected to Wilder and then they can meet after the interest is at an insane pace.

[Sheldon312]

You are the blind one. I gave AJ credit for combinations. He is not better at applying pressure - a guy who cannot even cut off the ring. lol... he has better balance - that is correct. I gave him credit for that too as part of his fundamentals. Does AJ also have better stamina? Lol...... very funny.

Jab is not equal - only you will state that. Wilder has always had a better jab. AJ can knock guys out in many different ways. How exactly? And how is that different from Wilder. Please, take a look at Wilder's highlights before talking crap. Most of AJ's knockouts have come via multiple shots - not a single. I'd take Wilder's approach anytime anyday... hopefully you can remove your blinders for once. Peace!

SMH. Highlights don't tell the whole story. If we were to just look at highlights, Adrien Broner would be P4P 1. I've watched most of Joshua's fights and half of Wilder's. It is pretty clear that the skill disparity between the two is huge while power difference is minimal. Joshua being able to knock opponents out in different ways gives him the advantage due to the fact of not being predictable. Wilder is very predictable, he just hasn't fought anyone skilled enough to take away that right hand and eploit his flaws. Joshua would be able to do that. I sometimes think you guys just go off of emotion instead of actually analyzing a fight.

[sotgoda]

SMH. Highlights don't tell the whole story. If we were to just look at highlights, Adrien Broner would be P4P 1. I've watched most of Joshua's fights and half of Wilder's. It is pretty clear that the skill disparity between the two is huge while power difference is minimal. Joshua being able to knock opponents out in different ways gives him the advantage due to the fact of not being predictable. Wilder is very predictable, he just hasn't fought anyone skilled enough to take away that right hand and eploit his flaws. Joshua would be able to do that. I sometimes think you guys just go off of emotion instead of actually analyzing a fight.

Go off emotions? Are you kidding me? I was trying to have an objective discussion until you pointed out blindness. My take is still the same - Joshua is technically sounder in his stance and the way he throws his punches. He also looks like the better boxer (just like AB looks like the better boxer against Maidana but was knocked down and embarrassed). AJ has the better uppercuts. The power difference is not minimal - only you will say that. I follow both guys by the way but I am tired of the excessive hype! I call it like I see it.