Deontay Wilder vs Anthony Joshua Breakdown & Prediction

[john l]

If you would’ve asked most boxing fans a couple months ago who would win between Joshua and Wilder, the vote would be a majority in favor of Joshua by KO. Now, after knocking out former WBC Champion Bermane Stiverne in the early first round in brutal fashion, you have many favoring Wilder to stop Joshua in the early rounds. But after watching countless footage and fights of both men and analyzing each of their resumes and skill sets, I don’t think the ball should be in Wilder’s favor if/when they do fight each other.

Resume

First, let’s take a look at both men’s resume. Wilder’s top four best wins are against Stiverne (who he has beaten twice), Spilka, Washington, and Aerola. Joshua’s top four best wins are against Kitchsko, Whyte, Martin, and Takkam. As you can see, by comparing both fighter’s resume, it is very clear that Joshua has the better resume by a mile. Joshua’s win against Wlad is ten times better than Stiverne which is Wilder’s best win. I also consider Whyte and Takkam to be head and shoulders above Aerola, Washington, and Stiverne. So, I believe the experience advantage is in Joshua’s favor since he has fought better fighters compared to Wilder. I understand that the Wlad that Joshua fought was out of his prime but I still hold that win in higher regards because that Wlad is clearly better than any fighter Wilder has fought. I also believe that the Wlad from the Joshua fight would beat Wilder(that is a debate for another time)

Skills and Physicality

Now, let’s look at the skills and physicality of both men. Wilder is 6”7 with an 83” reach while Anthony Joshua is 6”6 with an 82” reach. Wilder is the taller fighter with more reach while Anthony Joshua is the physically stronger fighter (Joshua weighs in at 250 while Wilder weighs in a 227.) Both men have immense punching power (Wilder has won 38 of his 39 bouts by KO and Joshua has won all 20 of his fights by KO) Looking at both, I would say Wilder has the better raw power compared to Joshua but it is not by much. If I was to rate both fighter’s power on a scale from 1 to 10, it would be Wilder with 9.5 and Joshua with a solid 9. Wilder wins in the departments of stamina, hand speed, athleticism, height, reach, power (not by much), and he also has a pretty good jab and has improved it immensely. But outside of those categories he doesn’t do anything else better than Joshua. Joshua has the better footwork, balance, defense, jab, tools, combinations, and he is able to knock his opponents out in more of a variety of ways.

Conclusion/Who would win?

I have this fight 60/40 in favor of Joshua. I think Joshua is the more skilled and polished fighter plus he has the advantage in experience since he has fought much better fighters. Now, let me be clear, it is not Wilder’s fault that his potential best opponents all got busted for PEDs. We just cannot give him credit for fights that didn’t happen. Povetkin and Ortiz are levels above Stiverne, Washington, Spilka, and Aerola so I don’t know if Wilder would’ve won those fights or not. Sure, Wilder has great one-punch power but we have seen, in the past, that when a fighter steps up in competition their KO% goes down.

Now, there are some flaws that Joshua have that Wilder could exploit. I know many of you are thinking, “Well, what about when Wlad dropped Joshua with a right hand? That’s Wilder’s bread and butter?” You are correct but Wlad punches with better technique and he doesn’t telegraph his right hand like Wilder does. And let’s not forget that Wlad is one of the top 10 hardest punching heavyweights in boxing history with a better resume compared to Wilder. What’s so impressive about Joshua in that bout against Wlad is the fact that he got up, recovered, and ended up stopping Wlad. I don’t think Wilder would’ve been able to do the same due to the fact that no fighter has ever taken him into deep waters. Joshua does have stamina issues which could potentially put him in harms way against Wilder but he makes up for it with his superior boxing skill set. I also believe that the Wladimir fight made Joshua a much better fighter. I noticed in the Takkam fight that Joshua wasn’t getting hit with the straight right as much which is essential against a guy like Wilder.

Wilder may be the better athlete with the better power but there are a lot more flaws that Joshua can exploit compared to the flaws that Wilder could exploit against Joshua. For one, Wilder has a tendency to be off balance when he throws punches. Don’t believe me? Go back and watch Wilder vs Spitzka, Wilder vs Stiverne 1, and Wilder vs Molina. It wouldn’t take much for Joshua to counter and drop Wilder who gets clumsy at times. I’ve also noticed that Wilder has a tendency to throw punches with his chin up. The first thing a boxer learns when he starts boxing is to never leave your chin up. Always keep your chin tucked with your guard up. We saw what happened to Wlad when Joshua hit him with an uppercut. This particular tendency would put Wilder in the line of fire against Joshua’s uppercuts which could potentially lead to a KO. Wilder’s footwork has progressed but it’s still below average compared to other boxers. Footwork and balance is essential in boxing especially in the heavyweight division. What’s impressive about Wilder is how good of a finisher he is. When Wilder has you hurt, he goes in for the kill. That’s fine, so long as you don’t go in swinging wildly. Did I also forget to mention that Joshua is the better counterpuncher with better accuracy? I think if Wilder was to try to go in and windmill against Joshua he would get countered and potentially stopped. Joshua has too much of a high boxing iq to just sit there and let Wilder T off on him like that. All in all this is a 60/40 fight favoring Joshua in my opinion. The lack of quality opposition will come back and haunt Wilder, and Joshua is just the better overall fighter. Thoughts?

Ithink your a little underrating Wilder's right.Its st8 as arrow when he is using it behind his Much improved Jab.And Joshua stamina is getting worse he gassed in last fight after 5-6 and fight was fought AT HIS PACE ALL NIGHT.That means a lot as anyone who has been in ring before know's it means you can take little breaks whenever he wanted and still gassed.He loked better in Whyte,Breazeale fights.They were also fought at his pace but he did not gass.I lean towards Wilder now because he can get him eary(just like Joshua could do to him)but if it go's late then I really faver Wilder.If Joshua gets off them weights some and gets back down to 240-45 then it might swing back to even (or maybe 60-40 josh). He has more punche's in his bag(upper,hook)that Wilder don't have he throws hook but its wider then Joshua's.But that real good jab hiding great st8 right is ***en deadly.

[RussB23]

Joshua better boxer obviously and also really powerful. Id bet on him, but wilder just fights in a such an awkward way, he fundamentally is pretty bad as a fighter. But his punches can catch you and if he catches you he can hurt you and put you away. He basically just goes into fights being confident he will at some point land and put his opponent away.

I have **** on wilder immensly and thought he looked bad in his last few fights. But stiverne is his best opponent, and thats when he looked his best. Maybe he really does actually fight to the level of the opposition who knows. Hes not really a good boxer at all, hes just a great athlete who has alot of power and is successful solely because of that.

[john l]

That depends on who throws the first bomb. I think if Wilder throws the first bomb and is effective he will go for the kill and start windmilling which will put him in the position of getting countered. Joshua is not going to just sit there and let him t off on him. If Joshua lands the first bomb, I don't know how Wilder will react. That's how huge a disparity is between Wilder and Joshua's resume. I know what i'm going to get from Joshua at this point but I don't know about Wilder. I sure as hell wish that Wilder would've fought Ortiz and Povetkin. The outcomes of those two fights would've really told the whole story about what Wilder is really made of.

I have real doubts that Joshua would survive 1st bomb.Really I have doubts about either surviving 1st bomb.But if your takin balls then I think you have to take into account Wilder fightin HARD at least twice with broken hand and still throwing it HARD.Somtimes you have no choice but to TAKE shots. But you do have choice to THROW HARD punch's when you have broke hand.That tells me he is tough.I remember being real inpressed with toughness A Gatti showed during times he was fightin with hurt,broke hands and that guy would still throw them full force. That's Tough

[john l]

Joshua better boxer obviously and also really powerful. Id bet on him, but wilder just fights in a such an awkward way, he fundamentally is pretty bad as a fighter. But his punches can catch you and if he catches you he can hurt you and put you away. He basically just goes into fights being confident he will at some point land and put his opponent away.

I have **** on wilder immensly and thought he looked bad in his last few fights. But stiverne is his best opponent, and thats when he looked his best. Maybe he really does actually fight to the level of the opposition who knows. Hes not really a good boxer at all, hes just a great athlete who has alot of power and is successful solely because of that.

Could not be more right his two best fights came with BS(who in 1st fight was mid top 10)I think he fight's less wild when in with somone he respects some.And that jab(which is getting real good) has also got to be talked about when going though his strengh's. With that hiding st8 right and also hurting opps he is twice the fighter than without

[493dart]

However you want to break it down....this a HUGE, EXCITING FIGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!! I like both fighters...i got it 50/50 .

[john l]

Wilder has a good, stiff jab. Yes he is known for his wild windmill punches but the first knockdown last night was a straight right hand right on the button, thrown following a jab.

Joshua has very slow feet...yes beating Wlad was historical especially after surviving a brutal knockdown...but Wlad was the polar opposite of Wilder who moves around a lot better. And Joshua has no stamina.

I can see a great fight here..Lyle-Foreman all over again.

good fair post

[john l]

However you want to break it down....this a HUGE, EXCITING FIGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!! I like both fighters...i got it 50/50 .

Now there is REAL fan.Its what is best for boxing and either CAN win.

[Verbalk]

Kudos to the thread starter, very good post! A simpleton like me would think whoever connects first and connects well will probably get the win. I think both guys have questionable chins and can be hurt. Should be a very interesting fight, and one that isn't particularly easy to predict.

[Sheldon312]

Ithink your a little underrating Wilder's right.Its st8 as arrow when he is using it behind his Much improved Jab.And Joshua stamina is getting worse he gassed in last fight after 5-6 and fight was fought AT HIS PACE ALL NIGHT.That means a lot as anyone who has been in ring before know's it means you can take little breaks whenever he wanted and still gassed.He loked better in Whyte,Breazeale fights.They were also fought at his pace but he did not gass.I lean towards Wilder now because he can get him eary(just like Joshua could do to him)but if it go's late then I really faver Wilder.If Joshua gets off them weights some and gets back down to 240-45 then it might swing back to even (or maybe 60-40 josh). He has more punche's in his bag(upper,hook)that Wilder don't have he throws hook but its wider then Joshua's.But that real good jab hiding great st8 right is ***en deadly.

Im basing my observation on the fact that Wilder is still very flawed compared to Joshua. Yes, Joshua gasses but Wilder has bad balance, footwork, leave his chin up, and his only weapon is that straight right. Wilder has power but it is being overrated. When Vitali, Wlad, Tyson, and Foreman were fighting bums they literally were in 95 to 100% KO ration. When they stepped up they couldn't just rely on their power. Someone will get dropped that's for sure. I'm just one of those guys who feel that fundamentals + skills beats power + athleticism. Wilder is just too flawed imo and he hasn't fought anyone that has given him the experience over Joshua. White and Takkam would've beaten Stiverne imo.

[Sheldon312]

However you want to break it down....this a HUGE, EXCITING FIGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!! I like both fighters...i got it 50/50 .

I understand that but I think you are just basing it strictly off Wilder's power. Many of you guys think Wilder's power = Joshua's superior resume, fundamentals, counter-punching, and skill and I think that's lazy analytics. It's like me saying Thurman beats Crawford because he has one-punch knockout power. You have to look at the entire body of work of both fighters. You can't just say Fighter A hits harder than Fighter B and say fighter B wins.