Mayweather = Final Nail in UFC's Coffin

[Eff Pandas]

New UFC owners are in massive debt. Unless they get a crazy new TV deal they are sunk.

Cmon man. 1)They will get some sorta TV deal for sure. 2)Even if it was an equal or less one the UFC isn't going anywhere.

What makes you think otherwise? You don't spend 4B on something that can go even more mainstream & get into more countries than its in to go busto in a year & some change over a TV deal.

[-Antonio-]

UFC has the right fans. They have the 18-35 demo on lock. So I don't see them going anywhere. Once Conor leaves they will find another star. Probably not as big but you never know.

[BWC]

Cmon man. 1)They will get some sorta TV deal for sure. 2)Even if it was an equal or less one the UFC isn't going anywhere.

What makes you think otherwise? You don't spend 4B on something that can go even more mainstream & get into more countries than its in to go busto in a year & some change over a TV deal.

Actually the TV deal is the linchpin to everything. The $4.6bn valuation is based on rights fees of $450mm annually. FOX thought the number way too high and held the line at $3.6bn. Their current Fox deal (in the midst of historically bad ratings) is about $150mm. Currently, their debt load is 13X earnings. Imagine a debt load of 13X your take home. Its an incredibly high number, so high that the Federal Reserve questioned the deal at the outset. Moody's rated it as "highly speculative", too risky for institutional investors such as pension funds and colleges. WME told the Feds that their earnings would actually DOUBLE this year, an unheard of event for 99% of businesses.

There is absolutely ZERO guarantee WME-UFC is successful, in fact many sophisticated observers view it as very very risky..

[Eff Pandas]

Actually the TV deal is the linchpin to everything. The $4.6bn valuation is based on rights fees of $450mm annually. FOX thought the number way too high and held the line at $3.6bn. Their current Fox deal (in the midst of historically bad ratings) is about $150mm. Currently, their debt load is 13X earnings. Imagine a debt load of 13X your take home. Its an incredibly high number, so high that the Federal Reserve questioned the deal at the outset. Moody's rated it as "highly speculative", too risky for institutional investors such as pension funds and colleges. WME told the Feds that their earnings would actually DOUBLE this year, an unheard of event for 99% of businesses.

There is absolutely ZERO guarantee WME-UFC is successful, in fact many sophisticated observers view it as very very risky..

It sounds like they got it covered behind the scenes cuz Dana has hinted at big moves already. And these guys don't make risky moves for real very often. They got 8 different fallback positions & workarounds if something doesn't work out like they expect it to with the main plan I imagine.

I don't think the UFC is going anywhere.

Although it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if they did go outta business & Viacom (Bellator's daddy) bought them out or something like that. Then all the best fighters would be back under the same roof again. Plus Scott Coker is the type of President who can help make MMA more mainstream + improve fighter relations in a way Dana couldn't ever do.

[BWC]

It sounds like they got it covered behind the scenes cuz Dana has hinted at big moves already. And these guys don't make risky moves for real very often. They got 8 different fallback positions & workarounds if something doesn't work out like they expect it to with the main plan I imagine.

I don't think the UFC is going anywhere.

Although it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if they did go outta business & Viacom (Bellator's daddy) bought them out or something like that. Then all the best fighters would be back under the same roof again. Plus Scott Coker is the type of President who can help make MMA more mainstream + improve fighter relations in a way Dana couldn't ever do.

Well that's what everyone is assuming, that these guys are master super geniuses that are playing 34342-dimensional chess. I'm more of an Occam's razor type of guy and believe they probably just over-estimated their ability to increase their rights fees to that level like the rest of the market believed.

I'm not sure they're headed to Chap 13 but their lenders will no doubt take a major haircut when they sell out to Bellator or something lol..

[USMCer]

Boxing doesn't NEED PPV to survive like UFC does. Big difference!

Like I said, it's getting worse. Jones can't even crack 1 million.

There are ebs and flows. But overall the sport of MMA is only getting stronger. The UFC as a promotion is only getting stronger.

The UFC has been leaning less and less on PPV revenue over the years. The sport of MMA doesn't "need" PPV.

In 2014 the UFC had horrible PPV buy numbers. A year and a half later, they were bought for $4 billion.


UFC PPV avgerage by year:
2017 - 327,000 -- UFC on FOX, Bellator on Spike
2016 - 746,000 -- WME buys the UFC
2015 - 576,000 -- UFC on FOX, Bellator on Spike
2014 - 263,000 -- UFC on FOX, launches FightPass, Bellator on Spike
2013 - 467,000 -- UFC on FOX, Bellator on Spike
2012 - 455,000 -- UFC on FOX
2011 - 418,000 -- UFC on FOX, buys Strikeforce, Viacom buys Bellator
2010 - 604,000 -- Strikeforce on CBS/Showtime, buys EliteXC
2009 - 617,000 -- Strikeforce on Showtime
2008 - 535,000 -- EliteXC on CBS/Showtime
2007 - 457,000 -- UFC buys Pride
2006 - 527,000 --
2005 - 158,000 -- "The Ultimate Fighter" on Spike
2004 - 94,000*
2003 - 59,000*

[McNulty]

MMA doesn't "need" PPV.

Yes it does.

Those are GREAT numbers for the UFC. The UFC has only had 15 PPV's that did 1M+, 4 of them (over 25% of them) happened in 2016. Thats an insanely good year & iirc there 2nd most PPV's overall in a year ever (2010 being their best year).

And I'm only comparing them to boxing by saying boxing WISHES they had 4 1M+ PPV's last year.

Those are BAD numbers for UFC. My point is without Mc****** UFC is dead. So minus Mc****** you fcuking ******, UFC is doing ***** numbers. Get in the conversation on a coherent or get fcucking blocked. My time is valuable. I just can't engage on this low of a level. You're not reading what I'm posting and you're just being another fcuktard troll.

Why you sucking the MMA d!ck?

[USMCer]

Yes it does.

No.
Not in the sense that your suggesting.

2014 was horrible for the UFC in terms of PPV. And they were just fine. By some reports they had a record year in revenue.

-BloodyElbow


They're less and less dependent on PPV buys...




It could be argued that WME overpaid for the UFC, etc. But the sport of MMA is past the event horizon, if you will. It's here to stay.

[JRB123]

Floyd beating Conor would not be the fall of UFC. They will have good cards for the fans to tune in to those cards.

If anything, the danger that UFC would have is the purses that boxers get in comparison to the MMA fighters. If Conor was able to break away to be a pro boxer and other fighters see how much he makes a fight, then other fighters may try their luck.

There have been some guys that have been in other fighting sports and migrated to boxing before. Jarrell Miller is one guy now that has done it

[McNulty]

No.
Not in the sense that your suggesting.

2014 was horrible for the UFC in terms of PPV. And they were just fine. By some reports they had a record year in revenue.

-BloodyElbow


They're less and less dependent on PPV buys...




It could be argued that WME overpaid for the UFC, etc. But the sport of MMA is past the event horizon, if you will. It's here to stay.

'Contractual Revenue' is defined as ___?

A couple of pie charts and graphs from Bloody Elbow doesn't support jack **** man. If you're going to try and get academic you're going to need real sources with real breakdowns.

If the Ferrita's are selling, they know better than anyone when to cash out.