Help!!! I'm Starting To Think Margarito Has A Shot!

[Silencers]

Pacquiao is in excellent condition no question, but body shots will take any amount of conditioning right out of you.

Margarito is a caveman fight, he doesn't care if he's set, he just lets his hands go whether he's set or not. The only thing he cares about is being in range.

Pacquiao to me was not constantly on the move against Diaz, a better example to me would be the 60 punches per round he averaged against De La Hoya.

I rather go on the safe side and believe his chin is still good than assume it's cracked from the Mosley fight. I agree on the last part, but his chin will be on a higher plane and harder to reach than any opponent since De La Hoya.

I disagree, his punch stats drop when he has an opponent who moves on him. He threw way less punches against Williams, Williams forced him to constantly reset. He threw 664 punches, which is much lower than his usual output.

7/14/07 L 12 PAUL WILLIAMS (outworked by Williams, yes Margarito, who holds the all time CompuBox record with 1675 total punches thrown vs. Joshua Clottey, threw just 652 total punches(54 per round), landing 181. Whirlwind southpaw Williams landed 288 of 1256 total punches (23%-105 per round). Margarito avg’d just 41 punches thrown per round over first six rounds, then 68 per round over last six rounds. Williams had a 205-165 edge in power connects. Margarito had the edge in power connects in just four of twelve rounds, hurting Williams in the seventh and again in the eleventh, opening a cut over Williams eye. Scoring: 116-112 W; 115-113 W 2x).

http://compuboxonline.com/notes/margarito_notes.shtml

11/47, 25/64, 21/60, 37/75, 33/86, 22/74, 47/103, 28/76. (His punchstats against DLH).

A notable increase once he gained more confidence in the fight, I don't think the first 3 rounds' punch stats had much to do with him moving around. As we have seen since he's moved up to welterweight, he takes a round or two to feel out his opponents.

DLH kept his chin tucked, even though he was shot he still knew how to do that and never lead with his head. Margarito leads with his head all the time and crouches over more than DLH.

[Heru]

But its hard to land body shots in a moving target.

Margarito does care though, he cares that there is mustard on most of the shots he throws, thats why he has to get set, cause he always wants to punch hard.

It is, but I think people are overstating how much Pacquiao can move.

If he's in close he does not care, he'd square up at times against Cotto and let his punches go to take advantage of the opportunities.

[AFighter4U]

Why Marga has a fighting chance against Pac? at Jr MW division

1. Means pac will have to carry excess lbs on fight night that will take its toll on his stamina at the later rounds.

2. Means pac has to wear for the first time in his career 10lbs gloves that will reduces his damage out put against his opponent and an excess 2lbs to carry on his hands the whole twelve rounds.

3. Marga by no way be weight drained or to old for the match.

[kadyo's]

I was of the belief that Pacquiao was too fast for Margarito and he would just move in and out while tagging him at will, but I can't keep acting as if Margarito will respect Pacquiao's power and Manny is some sort of defensive genius.

Margarito won't just stand in front of Pacquiao letting himself get picked apart and giving Manny a rest period. He's going to be walking Pac down nonstop and throwing 4,5,6+ punch combinations even when he's out of range.

Mosley was smart and strong enough to hold Margarito every time he was in range to land. And after he held, he'd walk Margarito backwards to tire him out.

Can Pacquiao do this constantly? If not, how is he going to keep Margarito at bay?

Pacquiao doesn't seem to have the lateral footwork that it takes to keep Margarito off balance and on the outside. Nor does he have an exceptional inside game where he can block punches if he does get inside.

He can throw tons of punches like Williams, but Margarito will only wait for so long before he says 'A la verga guey' and forces his way inside. Margarito is 5'11'' and his main punches are the straight right hand and left uppercut, they will work well against a shorter southpaw.

If Margarito can get to Pacquiao's body early, it'll get very interesting down the stretch.

I still think Pacquiao will win because Roach is a master at game planning and if he has Pacquiao going to the body early, all of the above will be annulled, but if not this will be Pacquiao's toughest fight since JMM II.

Pac better be careful because he's got a job cut out for him. Margo will be a very dangerous opponent and he will more than ready this time to prove that he has not been the most feared welterweight for nothing.

[kadyo's]

I disagree, his punch stats drop when he has an opponent who moves on him. He threw way less punches against Williams, Williams forced him to constantly reset. He threw 664 punches, which is much lower than his usual output.

http://compuboxonline.com/notes/margarito_notes.shtml

11/47, 25/64, 21/60, 37/75, 33/86, 22/74, 47/103, 28/76.

A notable increase once he gained more confidence in the fight, I don't think the first 3 rounds' punch stats had much to do with him moving around. As we have seen since he's moved up to welterweight, he takes a round or two to feel out his opponents.

DLH kept his chin tucked, even though he was shot he still knew how to do that and never lead with his head. Margarito leads with his head all the time and crouches over more than DLH.

But every time I read silencers give his take as to what would happen, I somehow feel sorry for margo for taking this fight. lol

[Heru]

I disagree, his punch stats drop when he has an opponent who moves on him. He threw way less punches against Williams, Williams forced him to constantly reset. He threw 664 punches, which is much lower than his usual output.

http://compuboxonline.com/notes/margarito_notes.shtml

11/47, 25/64, 21/60, 37/75, 33/86, 22/74, 47/103, 28/76.

A notable increase once he gained more confidence in the fight, I don't think the first 3 rounds' punch stats had much to do with him moving around. As we have seen since he's moved up to welterweight, he takes a round or two to feel out his opponents.

DLH kept his chin tucked, even though he was shot he still knew how to do that and never lead with his head. Margarito leads with his head all the time and crouches over more than DLH.

Williams didn't move on him though, he just kept up the average of 100+ punches per round and was throwing volleys from a 6'3 frame and an 82 inch wingspan.

He didn't know how to go about getting going offensively against something he's never seen before.

I don't think he fights as small as you guys are leading on. He barely bends his knees even for uppercuts.

The key to the IMO will be body punching. Margo does not neglect the body and will be in range to get his in a few times. If Pacquiao does not slow down Margarito by going to the body a lot (like he did to Clottey), he will have a very rough time down the stretch of the fight, a very rough stretch.

I'm out and not going to be able to reply anymore, but we'll keep this going later.

[Jim Tom]

Paul Williams proved that Margarito can be tagged all night if someone has the stamina.Williams is taller though,he could keep Margarito at arms length,Manny Pacquiao is not.Manny is faster but he gets hit too many times trying to deliver shots.That will be his undoing.Margarito might get hit first 2-3 rounds but from the 4th the Tijuana Tornado will start landing shots.The beating Manny will get will be worse than Cotto's and this fight aint going the distance.

[Dynamite Kid]

It is, but I think people are overstating how much Pacquiao can move.

If he's in close he does not care, he'd square up at times against Cotto and let his punches go to take advantage of the opportunities.

Thats a fair opinion to have, although i dont agree.


Only thing i would say on that, is that Cotto fights very square himself, which makes it harder to pivot or roll away from shots, particularly right hands, now Pac hardly fights side on like a Roger Mayweather did, but he is not what you would consider square like a Clottey, Margarito, Cotto, oh, thats another thing, Cotto, when moving backward, moves the back leg first, which is a technical flaw, your supposed to move the lead foot first, then! the back leg, now this might sound insignificant, but its not, cause the down side to it, is that you cant move quickly when you need to cause your always having to step with the lead foot after moving the back leg first, now imagine having to do this under pressure when someone is coming at you hard, your going to get trapped sooner or later, or wear yourself down physically because you have been trying to scurry away rather than moving away.

[Dynamite Kid]

I disagree, his punch stats drop when he has an opponent who moves on him. He threw way less punches against Williams, Williams forced him to constantly reset. He threw 664 punches, which is much lower than his usual output.

http://compuboxonline.com/notes/margarito_notes.shtml

11/47, 25/64, 21/60, 37/75, 33/86, 22/74, 47/103, 28/76. (His punchstats against DLH).

A notable increase once he gained more confidence in the fight, I don't think the first 3 rounds' punch stats had much to do with him moving around. As we have seen since he's moved up to welterweight, he takes a round or two to feel out his opponents.

DLH kept his chin tucked, even though he was shot he still knew how to do that and never lead with his head. Margarito leads with his head all the time and crouches over more than DLH.

Hey Silencer, i also thought that Williams had a lot of success because he threw so many punches, he kept Margarito playing defense which ties in with my opinion, that Margarito does not punch with the opponent very often, if at all.

[Silencers]

But every time I read silencers give his take as to what would happen, I somehow feel sorry for margo for taking this fight. lol

Don't get me wrong, I think the fight will be a very good fight, just a moderately one sided very good fight.

Williams didn't move on him though, he just kept up the average of 100+ punches per round and was throwing volleys from a 6'3 frame and an 82 inch wingspan.

He didn't know how to go about getting going offensively against something he's never seen before.

I don't think he fights as small as you guys are leading on. He barely bends his knees even for uppercuts.

The key to the IMO will be body punching. Margo does not neglect the body and will be in range to get his in a few times. If Pacquiao does not slow down Margarito by going to the body a lot (like he did to Clottey), he will have a very rough time down the stretch of the fight, a very rough stretch.

I'm out and not going to be able to reply anymore, but we'll keep this going later.

Williams was always stepping to the side after he threw his shots, he never remained a stationary target for Margarito to get his punches off.

Is Pacquiao something he's seen before? I doubt it, the closest thing might be a very green Martinez.

I don't mean he fights small, he uses his size quite well, it's just the way he positions his head, his head is rarely tucked and he leads with it. And he crouches over, crouching over doesn't mean fighting small.

As I said, I don't think Margarito will be able to dig in his body shots like he did against Cotto because I doubt he'll be able to corner Pacquiao or get him on the ropes unless he runs at him like Morales did to Pacquiao and that's a doubt edged sword because he's liable to run right into something.

And even before the Clottey fight, I felt Pacquiao was a good body puncher, deceptive. Because you see his flashy punches go to the head but in the midst of those combinations, there's almost always a punch to the body that the opponent doesn't expect. And Pacquiao likes to throw a one two and throw a body shot when he slides out so that he doesn't get caught by a counter.