Help!!! I'm Starting To Think Margarito Has A Shot!

[Dynamite Kid]

I was of the belief that Pacquiao was too fast for Margarito and he would just move in and out while tagging him at will, but I can't keep acting as if Margarito will respect Pacquiao's power and Manny is some sort of defensive genius.

Margarito won't just stand in front of Pacquiao letting himself get picked apart and giving Manny a rest period. He's going to be walking Pac down nonstop and throwing 4,5,6+ punch combinations even when he's out of range.

Mosley was smart and strong enough to hold Margarito every time he was in range to land. And after he held, he'd walk Margarito backwards to tire him out.

Can Pacquiao do this constantly? If not, how is he going to keep Margarito at bay?

Pacquiao doesn't seem to have the lateral footwork that it takes to keep Margarito off balance and on the outside. Nor does he have an exceptional inside game where he can block punches if he does get inside.

He can throw tons of punches like Williams, but Margarito will only wait for so long before he says 'A la verga guey' and forces his way inside. Margarito is 5'11'' and his main punches are the straight right hand and left uppercut, they will work well against a shorter southpaw.

If Margarito can get to Pacquiao's body early, it'll get very interesting down the stretch.

I still think Pacquiao will win because Roach is a master at game planning and if he has Pacquiao going to the body early, all of the above will be annulled, but if not this will be Pacquiao's toughest fight since JMM II.

Only things i would point out, is that Margarito is not particularly good at cutting the ring down, infact he comes in straight a lot of the time imo, which will make it easier for Pac to pivot away when he does he come in, thats going to be part of Margarito's problem imo, he is not very adept at getting off when from long range, he is not the type of guy to run you into a 1 2 where by he stops you in your tracks and goes to work, well, not consistently anyway, only thing he does well, is keep moving his hands if/when your back hits the ropes, or when you yourself(the fighter) hold your feet and stop moving. Margarito also does not punch with you when you throw combo's at him, what he tends to do is shell up and move backward like a battered wife, which will invite Pac to keep throwing, and to touch his body when he does this.

A positive for Marg in this fight, could be Pac's southpaw stance, see im of the opinion that the best way to get to a southpaw is to put pressure on them, its just a case of, can Margarito get into that position, can he take what Pac dishes out when he is on the way in? lets also not forget that Pacquaio is a sharp shooter, which means he is capable of nailing you with fast hard punches as you come in, punches that you might not see, particularly if your so preoccupied with getting off yourself, which Marg generally is.

[Heru]

You wanna bet?

Did you actually read the OP and see who I'm leaning too? I'll do an over/under though.

he is too big. i thought pac-marg would be crazy a year or two ago.

if marg can take pac's punches then we have a fight.

but if marg's chin is not what it use to be and he can get hurt or stunned......marg has no chance.

he needs to wear down , bruise up and slow down pac to win.

he'll eat a lot of punches to get that done.

He's done it before, no reason to think he can do it again, especially with that huge chip on his shoulder.

He took huge shots from Mosley and kept coming. I think the strength advantage will play a good part in the fight. If Margarito is clearly stronger, he will not look like he has in his last 2 fights.

[Silencers]

You can't be in constantly moving and be able to throw as many punches as you normally do. Cotto found that out the hard way. You have to give 1 up for the other, no 2 month camp will allow you do otherwise without getting tired in a 12 round fight.

I'm not saying Margarito is as quick as Clottey, but he's longer and will throw twice as much as Clottey. Pacquiao will have a field day on Margarito's face because of how slow Margarito is, but Margarito has shown he can walk through it and keep coming.

Body punching is the key to the fight on both sides. Whoever lands more to the body, especially early will win the fight and right now I think it'll be Pacquiao because of Roach.

Margarito will be carrying a Diaz like chin, not a Hatton level chin and it'll be harder to reach.

Pacquiao can still throw upwards of 70 or 80 punches a round on the move without getting tired, the man is in great condition.

19/91, 35/114, 23/80, 17/100, 32/84, 21/70, 22/76, 36/100, 25/73. Those are the punchstats of his fight against David Diaz, a fight in which he was almost constantly on the move.

What you say about not being able to keep a high workrate when on the move applies to the guy who's trying to stop the other guy from moving, the offensive fighter's workrate drops as well because he will always be resetting, Margarito isn't the type of guy who can move and punch at the same time with pop, he has to set his feet.

Pacquiao's speed will basically allow him to get off first and get there first, Pacquiao doesn't only have the speed advantage, he throws straighter shots which will add to the speed advantage he possesses.

Well, I don't think Margarito having an iron chin is a certainty now. We haven't seen him take a good shot yet, his chin might not be the same as it was before Mosley. And I disagree about it behind hard to reach, Margarito crouches over and bend down and he leads with his head making it quite an easy target.

[Devils Advocate]

You can't be in constantly moving and be able to throw as many punches as you normally do. Cotto found that out the hard way. You have to give 1 up for the other, no 2 month camp will allow you do otherwise without getting tired in a 12 round fight.

I'm not saying Margarito is as quick as Clottey, but he's longer and will throw twice as much as Clottey. Pacquiao will have a field day on Margarito's face because of how slow Margarito is, but Margarito has shown he can walk through it and keep coming.

Body punching is the key to the fight on both sides. Whoever lands more to the body, especially early will win the fight and right now I think it'll be Pacquiao because of Roach.

Margarito will be carrying a Diaz like chin, not a Hatton level chin and it'll be harder to reach.

Margarito has walked through IEDs and been fine but there is something different about walkng into that left hand, no one is ever prepared for that shot and Pac.

[Heru]

Only things i would point out, is that Margarito is not particularly good at cutting the ring down, infact he comes in straight a lot of the time imo, which will make it easier for Pac to pivot away when he does he come in, thats going to be part of Margarito's problem imo, he is not very adept at getting off when from long range, he is not the type of guy to run you into a 1 2 where by he stops you in your tracks and goes to work, well, not consistently anyway, only thing he does well, is keep moving his hands if/when your back hits the ropes, or when you yourself(the fighter) hold your feet and stop moving. Margarito also does not punch with you when you throw combo's at him, what he tends to do is shell up and move backward like a battered wife, which will invite Pac to keep throwing, and to touch his body when he does this.

A positive for Marg in this fight, could be Pac's southpaw stance, see im of the opinion that the best way to get to a southpaw is to put pressure on them, its just a case of, can Margarito get into that position, can he take what Pac dishes out when he is on the way in? lets also not forget that Pacquaio is a sharp shooter, which means he is capable of nailing you with fast hard punches as you come in, punches that you might not see, particularly if your so preoccupied with getting off yourself, which Marg generally is.

Ask Cintron about the bolded.

[Dynamite Kid]

Ask Cintron about the bolded.

Thats what i mean, Cintron held his feet too much, cant do that with Marg unless your smart enough to tie him up when its his turn to get off, which is what Shane did, however its as i said, Margarito is a guy that will wait for you to stop your combo before throwing his own imo.

[Dynamite Kid]

Pacquiao can still throw upwards of 70 or 80 punches a round on the move without getting tired, the man is in great condition.

19/91, 35/114, 23/80, 17/100, 32/84, 21/70, 22/76, 36/100, 25/73. Those are the punchstats of his fight against David Diaz, a fight in which he was almost constantly on the move.

What you say about not being able to keep a high workrate when on the move applies to the guy who's trying to stop the other guy from moving, the offensive fighter's workrate drops as well because he will always be resetting, Margarito isn't the type of guy who can move and punch at the same time with pop, he has to set his feet.

Pacquiao's speed will basically allow him to get off first and get there first, Pacquiao doesn't only have the speed advantage, he throws straighter shots which will add to the speed advantage he possesses.

Well, I don't think Margarito having an iron chin is a certainty now. We haven't seen him take a good shot yet, his chin might not be the same as it was before Mosley. And I disagree about it behind hard to reach, Margarito crouches over and bend down and he leads with his head making it quite an easy target.

Agree 100% with bolded.

[Heru]

Pacquiao can still throw upwards of 70 or 80 punches a round on the move without getting tired, the man is in great condition.

19/91, 35/114, 23/80, 17/100, 32/84, 21/70, 22/76, 36/100, 25/73. Those are the punchstats of his fight against David Diaz, a fight in which he was almost constantly on the move.

What you say about not being able to keep a high workrate when on the move applies to the guy who's trying to stop the other guy from moving, the offensive fighter's workrate drops as well because he will always be resetting, Margarito isn't the type of guy who can move and punch at the same time with pop, he has to set his feet.

Pacquiao's speed will basically allow him to get off first and get there first, Pacquiao doesn't only have the speed advantage, he throws straighter shots which will add to the speed advantage he possesses.

Well, I don't think Margarito having an iron chin is a certainty now. We haven't seen him take a good shot yet, his chin might not be the same as it was before Mosley. And I disagree about it behind hard to reach, Margarito crouches over and bend down and he leads with his head making it quite an easy target.

Pacquiao is in excellent condition no question, but body shots will take any amount of conditioning right out of you.

Margarito is a caveman fight, he doesn't care if he's set, he just lets his hands go whether he's set or not. The only thing he cares about is being in range.

Pacquiao to me was not constantly on the move against Diaz, a better example to me would be the 60 punches per round he averaged against De La Hoya.

I rather go on the safe side and believe his chin is still good than assume it's cracked from the Mosley fight. I agree on the last part, but his chin will be on a higher plane and harder to reach than any opponent since De La Hoya.

[Dynamite Kid]

Pacquiao is in excellent condition no question, but body shots will take any amount of conditioning right out of you.

Margarito is a caveman fight, he doesn't care if he's set, he just lets his hands go whether he's set or not. The only thing he cares about is being in range.

Pacquiao to me was not constantly on the move against Diaz, a better example to me would be the 60 punches per round he averaged against De La Hoya.

I rather go on the safe side and believe his chin is still good than assume it's cracked from the Mosley fight. I agree on the last part, but his chin will be on a higher plane and harder to reach than any opponent since De La Hoya.

But its hard to land body shots in a moving target.

Margarito does care though, he cares that there is mustard on most of the shots he throws, thats why he has to get set, cause he always wants to punch hard.

[Heru]

Margarito has walked through IEDs and been fine but there is something different about walkng into that left hand, no one is ever prepared for that shot and Pac.

Hatton was in the air throwing a punch when he got caught. And I don't trust his chin as a gauge either, since he got hurt twice by Lazcano where he got a break to tie his shoes.

Thats what i mean, Cintron held his feet too much, cant do that with Marg unless your smart enough to tie him up when its his turn to get off, which is what Shane did, however its as i said, Margarito is a guy that will wait for you to stop your combo before throwing his own imo.

It's the reason I mentioned the Williams fight. He kept Margarito busy trying to defend his volley until he slowed down and Margarito took it to him.

Pacquiao has to either throw punches in bunches and not worry much about moving, move as much as he wants to, but keep his punching to a min. (for him), or find a solid balance. He'll be tempted by the way he'll easily be hitting Margarito, but if he tries to do too much he might find himself tired like never before.