My theory is that if the larger man is skilled, he seldom loses on points to the smaller in his prime. The smaller guy might win, but the chances of it are via knockout in the past 30 years in, and in most cases, that upset happens if he lands his best stuff first.
Take a look at the super heavyweights since Bowe, Lewis, Klitschko, Klitschko, and Fury. (1991-2022 ) Add up all their fights ( 200+ ) and you get one decision loss in their prime, and that one was a razor-thin decision! That's it. So it's silly to pick the much smaller man on points, I say. Sure Lewis and Wlad were upset by big punchers. That is not my point. That is the theory.
For those interested, check out my top 15 heavyweight prospects, which I update quarterly. They all are pretty much 6'4" big guys 230+ pounds who can hit. Some can really fight. The game is changing. You just don't see any sub 210 pounds, 6'1" to under or with a reach less than 75" anymore. There are none ranked today or in my up and coming heavyweight prospect rankings. And there had not been a man of these dimensions in years.
Unless the smaller man has a very good chin, and very good power, with the right style, he's like a loser in fantasy fights, and history shows he is likely a loser in the past 30 years.
Fans of the old-time heavies ( me ) have to admit this...if they are honest. These days, ranked heavyweights are 2-3 divisions north of where they used to be and much more skilled and athletic in the past 50-120 years compared to past big men.
- Dr. Z
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