Screw the long post. Manny's best chance to win is to at least do what Hatton did early and that's pressure Floyd. He'll have to bring the fight to Floyd for his BEST CHANCE.
Scenario 1: No Pressure Approach
If Manny does not pressure Floyd, and allows the fight to stay in the middle of the ring, he'll be destroyed. I'm not saying KO from Floyd, but you'll see an even easier boxing clinic as Manny struggles to over come floyd's combination of reach, reflex, variety of attack and speed. Floyd counters Manny's short armed jabs easily, floyd punchs the pit of manny's stomach to keep manny at a distance, and offsets manny with right hand leads and pull counters.
Scenario 2: Pressuring Floyd
This is Manny's best chance. Hatton pressured Floyd early, but Floyd fought moving backwards and Hatton ate leads all night. The good thing about Manny is that he has a better arsenal. As Manny is coming forward, he has to keep his head moving and avoid getting picked off. Most importantly, Manny has to work on how to avoid being clinched. FLoyd is excellent at clinching after landing counters and straights.
Tendencies
Manny has the tendency to lose patience who he has to use his legs to cut off the ring. When Cotto finally decided to start using his legs to avoid manny, Manny just stood there like "com on man, fight!" But the truth is Manny needs to learn how to cut off the ring. Also, when Manny is being effectively countered, he stops attacking as much. See the Marquez II fight, when Manny was forced to stop his assault because he was being countered and Lampley kept scream "Pacquiao doesn't know what to do because he's being effectively countered." So, out of frustration, Manny would resolve to bull dozing in.
Hold Your Horses
Before anybody responds w/ "Manny didn't have two hands when he fought Marquez in 2008. He's a better fighter now!", you need to do you research.
When Manny Pacquiao faced Marquez, 4yrs after their first bout in 2004, he was a complete fighter with two hands. Want some proof? Suuuuuure i'll be more than glad to give ya proof.
Marquez/Pacquiao II- Rd 1 @ 2:41-2:24 mark (right after the opening bell):
"Is it round 13 of the first fight, in which case Juan Manuel's technical skills could be the difference? Or is it a different fight because Manny Pacquaio has progressed so much as a boxer and has so developed his right hand in the 4 years since the first fight?", Lampley's opening statement.
Manny had clearly developed his right hand jab and was not 1-handed fighter any more (like he was in 2004). This was in March '08, he faced Oscar in December of '08 (after fighting in June '08). People get the misconception that Manny improved dramatically by the time faced Diaz, then Oscar. But ppl don't realize all both of these fights were in 2008- after his 2nd bout w/ Marquez. The misconception happens because Pacquiao wizzed through those guys because they were stationary, less skilled opponents.
Let's compare Manny's right hand jab activity in the Oscar fight to the Marquez II fights (both these same yr- 2008) via CompuBox:
Round 1 Jabs:
Against Marquez: 4/26 (landed 4, threw 26)= 15%
Against Oscar: 2/29 (landed 2, threw 29)= 7%
Round 2 Jabs:
Against Marquez: 0/32 (landed 0, threw 32)= 0%
Against Oscar: 6/28 (landed 6, threw 28)= 21%
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The truth is, when Manny was fighting Marquez in the 2nd fight in 2008, Manny was using the jab but it was NOT EFFECTIVE against Marquez simply because marquez was moving his feet and head. GO LOOK AT THE FIGHT. Before you begin marveling at Manny, focus on how Marquez is responding to Manny. You'll see him moving back, keeping safe distance away from the jab as he tries to counter manny. This movement nullifies the jab because he's not stationary- there's no head available to hit with the jab. THEY ARE MOVING ALL OVER THE RING.
In contrast, when fighting Clottey, Cotto, Hatton, Diaz, Oscar, Margarito- all of these fighters stood flat footed, had no head movement, no backpedaling, poor countering skills, and was not moving in and out of Manny like Marquez did. Stationary opponents eat jabs all day. This is why Manny's recent performances stand out in fans minds so freshly because you see manny connecting those jabs. Manny was not connecting jabs at will on Marquez in the 2008 fight (because of his head and foot movement), that's why fans conveniently don't think his right hand was developed.
Manny's rhythm and timing also improved by the time he fought Marquez for the second time in March 2008. Emanuel Steward pointed that out during the fight.
It's all very clear what's going on here. Pac fans tend to glorify Manny's performance against lesser skilled boxers and disregard his less than stellar performances against the a great technical fighter like Marquez because of their lack of boxing knowledge.