Many people call this a “no-win” situation for “Canelo” Alvarez when he fights Terence Crawford. They say that if he wins, everyone will say he beat a much smaller man. And that if he loses, he lost to a much smaller man – a smaller man who is three years older than him. 

I would also add that Canelo has also lost to the two best fighters he’s ever faced in Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol. And if you add in the first two controversial Gennady Golovkin fights, Canelo needs this fight against Crawford more than most realize. He’s a veteran of big fights, but this fight will have added pressure – his legacy is on the line. 

After forensic study, I feel that Canelo has three keys to victory. First off, he has to establish a good rhythm-breaking jab. Canelo has a great but underrated jab. His jab is underrated because he does so many things well, so his jab gets overlooked. It’s also underrated because he sometimes tucks it away in his toolbox when he uses his bigger more dynamic punches. But he’s going to need it in this fight. “Bud” Crawford is a rhythm fighter and one of the ways to break a rhythm is with a disruptive jab.

The next thing I believe Canelo has to do is damage Crawford early. Crawford gets better and stronger as the fight goes along. Canelo has to make Crawford go through physical and mental discomfort to the head and body. So that when Crawford goes to step on the gas in the second half of the fight, he does not have a full tank. If Crawford has a near-full tank of gas down the stretch, it could be a huge issue for Canelo. 

Lastly, but most importantly, I believe Canelo has to be able to win rounds without going into his full toolbox. 

Crawford is one of the great late-round fighters of not just this generation but all generations. He’s like a savant at learning his opponent’s tendencies. Crawford is labeled a slow starter but that’s not completely accurate. He’s more of a calculated starter. He has a way of making his opponents try harder than he’s trying. He has a way of making his opponents show all of their intentions in the first few rounds of the fight without showing all of his. 

Canelo is a cool customer under pressure. And he’s going to have to be. He can’t show Crawford everything he has within the first few rounds because, if he does, it may look like he’s winning, but he would be falling into the same trap that most of Crawford’s opponents fall into – and it’s why most of them get stopped in the second half of their fights with Crawford. 

Israil Madrimov and Egidijus Kavaliauskas are the opponents who did the best against Crawford in the context of their tactics and approach. By no coincidence, both had subtle success without showing too much. Specifically, Madrimov – he constantly foot-feinted Crawford and acted as if he was going to unload barrages of punches, but he never really did. This threw Crawford off slightly. Crawford can do everything in the ring, but his natural tendency is to counter punch. I’m not suggesting Canelo fights like Madrimov. He has to fight within himself. But I believe it would serve him well to copy Madrimov’s approach, if not so much his bouncy, feinting tactics. Madrimov seemed to do the same thing over and over and Crawford seemed to be waiting, but Madrimov never really gave him the openings he wanted.

If Canelo can damage Crawford early, establish his jab, and not show his whole toolbox early, I believe it greatly enhances his chance to win this fight. With all that’s at stake, I expect a hotly contested fight that lives up to the expectations.