AJ v Wilder - The Breakdown

[Boksfan]

I don't think any of them have bad chin in particular. Wilder is faster, have better stamina and hits harder but his footwork is very bad and his defense is nonexistent. Joshua's footwork is decent, same as his defense. Joshua is more skilled for sure but Wilder might be a better athlete.

[Sheldon312]

I actually think AJ's inside game is good.

AJ has the best inside game in the HW division IMO

[Boksfan]

AJ has the best inside game in the HW division IMO

I was very upset with that Italian referee, he was like teacher trying to stop school yard brawl between students. We didn't see any inside from AJ last fight, not his fault tbh.

[Sparked_26]

Joshua’s weakness is he’s slow, plodding, and easy to hit. He’s very basic. He uses the jab but it doesn’t snap it’s slow. But most fighters aren’t big enough to counter over his jab. Wilder will clock him if he moves his left hand away from his chin.
As long as Joshua doesn’t turn into a southpaw overnight He won’t have anything to trouble Wilder with. He’s the type of fighter Deontay loves to face. A guy without much side to side movement that comes forward slowly. The more muscled up Joshua comes in to the fight the better for Wilder. Maybe that’s why Joshua has been losing some of that useless muscle. He knows that it just slows and fatigues him early.
The way for Hoshua to win the fight In my opinion is to get in close and smother Wilder with inside fighting. Wilder needs distance to unload that cannon. Sure Joshua likes to work off the jab but that’s just waiting for Wilder to time him one time and get him out of there. It will only take one time which is why I think Wilder will win. He finishes fighter as soon as they get hurt.

This is how I would see AJ winning the fight. Close the distance and take away the leverage for the big swings.

I'm not having that Wilder isn't a smaller heavyweight. He's tall but he's an ectomorph. I suspect he would catch AJ as that is not AJ's style. But it would keep him 'safer'

The gameplan you described is why I'd be very confident a fit Tyson Fury would beat Wilder. There are multiple examples of Tyson Fury essentially fighting as a 6'9 pressure fighter. He boxed neatly against Hammer and Wlad. But how he is seen as an exclusively outside boxer isn't really right imo.

[Rubber Ducky]

Disagree about Joshua being poor on the inside, he's the best inside fighter apart from Povetkin right now. He might be the best inside fighter who's a super heavy since Bowe.

Look at the Wlad and Takam fights. He took apart Wlad on the inside when he did let his hands go. Against Takam he was pushing Takam back, actually beating him up on the inside with uppercuts and hooks. The knockdown was do to Joshua trading with Takam on the inside, he comes in blocks Takam's hook and counters with a compact left hook of his own which drops Takam.

[minemax]

AJ's power will be more than enough for Wilder. So, we can say (for this fight) that both boxers are equally powerful. The height and reach are almost the same as well. With all this in mind, Joshua is clearly a better boxer. For me this fight it 60-70% AJ.

[sotgoda]

Wilder obliterates AJ when they fight and embarrasses him. No need to hype AJ's power - Wilder has a lot more power. It's not even close. AJ needs to throw combinations to drop a person - combinations typically require a stationary target, one which Wilder will not offer him.

Wilder brings more skills to the table than AJ - better right hand, more power, faster, better stamina (endurance), longer reach, better jab, pivots better, more explosive, can fight both on front and back foot, etc. The media hype is why AJ has been considered favorite.

What does AJ do better? He boxes better (as in the way he throws his shots or as folks on here prefer to say more technical with his shots), has the much better uppercut, better inside (position 1) fighter. Everything else Wilder has the advantage.

Both are confident fighters - but Wilder seems the more confident one. Chins are the same - I could argue one way or the other for Wilder and AJ on this. I also think Wilder has the better IQ - he figures out his opponents eventually and seems able to vary his game. AJ is what you call a 90% fighter - what he does can overwhelm any opponent and he does it really well but he does not really vary his game plan. He takes longer to adapt.

AJ also looks the part. Wilder IS the part. And that's the biggest difference - Wilder is just a natural born fighter.

[sotgoda]

You got everything mixed. Power, jab, footwork all go for Wilder. Expect Wilder tagging Joshua with his jab and then knocking him out in the first half

Tell them. Wilder has the best jab in the heavyweight. Better footwork too and no contest on the jab.

[sotgoda]

He throwed and landed a lot of jabs (actually oujabbed Ortiz) and he was against a skilled southpaw what makes it harder: https://www.boxingscene.com/deontay-...-stats--125891
Get your facts straight before talking of reason

Add in the fact that by fighting a southpaw, their lead legs were clashing as well which makes it trickier to throw the jabs - which is why Wilder began using the left hook to setup his right hand instead of the jab.

[sotgoda]

Joshua’s weakness is he’s slow, plodding, and easy to hit. He’s very basic. He uses the jab but it doesn’t snap it’s slow. But most fighters aren’t big enough to counter over his jab. Wilder will clock him if he moves his left hand away from his chin.
As long as Joshua doesn’t turn into a southpaw overnight He won’t have anything to trouble Wilder with. He’s the type of fighter Deontay loves to face. A guy without much side to side movement that comes forward slowly. The more muscled up Joshua comes in to the fight the better for Wilder. Maybe that’s why Joshua has been losing some of that useless muscle. He knows that it just slows and fatigues him early.
The way for Hoshua to win the fight In my opinion is to get in close and smother Wilder with inside fighting. Wilder needs distance to unload that cannon. Sure Joshua likes to work off the jab but that’s just waiting for Wilder to time him one time and get him out of there. It will only take one time which is why I think Wilder will win. He finishes fighter as soon as they get hurt.

Great breakdown. One thing though - Wilder controls distance well. He doesn't let people get into the position 1 (inside) against him because of his movement. Watch the Ortiz fight again - they kept persuading him to go inside but the threat of Wilder's counters made it extremely difficult. Watch end of round 2, round 5 before the knockdown - Wilder shows he is ready to throw should you come too close.