This is actually the key point.......if Canelo is as willing and confident vs GGG at 160 as he said after Khan and in the post presser, he believes he'll walk out of the ring with the belt. But if they don't get the fight done, it will look bad for Canelo with his own fans.....
Everyone that bags on GGG for a low PPV really isn't paying much attention. It wasn't as if Lemeiux was perceived as a real threat nor did he have the star power of Cotto to add to the bill. Canelo needs a legit opponent to do big numbers too.......his fight with Khan wasn't exactly a smashing success compared to Canelo v Cotto......and he's out of smaller guys with real drawing power so.... to do significant $$, this fight should get made.
If Canelo believes in himself and believes he can beat the MW champion straight up, it doesn't matter who has the belt, just who leaves the ring with it. They just basically avoided the purse split of 55/45......but to do 1 MIL+ buys, Canelo still needs GGG.......unless Floyd or Manny decide to fight him....both of which he'd probably lose although less painfully...
But if he truly stands by his post-fight confidence, they'll get this done around 60/40 at 160......70/30 is too low.....GGG fighting nobody's albeit mandatories, gets the same rankings on HBO as Canelo so assuming GGG has no leverage just isn't correct.......
60/40 for Canelo is fair. It can also be his "official" move to MW......there's value in that even if he gets beat by GGG.
With that split, Canelo will end up with a guarantee around 15 MIL and GGG around 11 MIL plus a part of the ppv......and I think it will be for all three major belts and do around 1.5 MIL buys.......neither can make that kind of purse or those ppv numbers without going at or below 154 AND ONLY IF....Floyd or Pac is interested in Canelo at around 152-154, (neither are interested in GGG.)
Problem is, Floyd won't do HBO and Canelo going after an even smaller guy?? Won't look good.......so realistically, they are still each others best possible opponent.
I think GGG wants the big money fight and will take a 40/60....he might even agree to 158.....but he's not gonna give much more than that.
Canelo should offer exactly that and he could get a rematch clause if he wants one. I believe he thinks he can beat GGG and based on his comments and the good reputation he's building, he really should make this fight happen.....
But if he doesn't fight GGG whatever the reason, he will have to save face with his fans and for his own pride by fighting a real MW at 160.....I'm betting Saunders would be much more interested in fighting Canelo than GGG.....?? Then he'd have that 4th major title GGG wants too...
But if that happens, he still has to fight GGG eventually.....let's be real....the dude is a beast and for real, not hype. If you know boxing you can see that.....and Canelo has too much pride to wait it out too long like Floyd did vs Pac and a fanbase that won't put up with avoiding GGG for long.
I think the fight gets made. I think GGG wins by KO.......but if it's made this year, Canelo won't be hurt by the loss at all because he will hang tough as long as it lasts......no shame in that. Hell....he could win if he can steal a few rounds and steal a decision. He did get one even card vs Floyd and some of his wins were MUCH closer than cards-most think he's gotten away with at least a couple- so judges clearly favor him......
I just believe GGG is better in every category and Canelo surviving, much less winning is not likely.....
Canelo will take a hit if he avoids the fight outright and an even bigger hit if he fights another WW.....
Hope it happens. Hope the move is just to get the business rolling.
But..... If the negotiations are reasonable and Canelo won't take the fight or tries to force 155 after all the **** he talked?? Or even worse, gets another name to move up to his weight?? He'll take a big hit career-wise that he won't fully recover from until he fights GGG.....
So why not now? Canelo "doesn't frock around", right??
This is simple for GGG....if the fight falls apart, Canelo will be the one that looks bad. GGG can try to get Saunders or Jacobs to completely unify.
Eventually GBP and Canelo will figure out they really do need GGG to get the ppv numbers they are looking for. He does have legit opponents at 154 in Lara, Charlo bros, Andrade, etc., but none with anywhere near the buzz of GGG. Plus, they play for Al Haymon. Tough pill for Oscar to swallow especially to split at a max of 300k buys??
Lemieux maybe??........But they still max at 250-300k buys and will lose leverage and the Mexican fans patience the longer they wait......and the worse Canelo will look...
GGG vs Canelo happens. I believe both fighters truly want it to happen. Don't think Canelo is scared.
But if it doesn't happen, at least by 5/2017? Canelo will inherit a nickname his mentor and promoter once had......and by then it will be well deserved. And hard to shake if he doesn't back his tough-guy words and fight GGG.
"Chicken Canelo" anyone?? Lol.....
I'd prefer GBP "not frock around" and do it this Sept 17.
Everyone that bags on GGG for a low PPV really isn't paying much attention. It wasn't as if Lemeiux was perceived as a real threat nor did he have the star power of Cotto to add to the bill. Canelo needs a legit opponent to do big numbers too.......his fight with Khan wasn't exactly a smashing success compared to Canelo v Cotto......and he's out of smaller guys with real drawing power so.... to do significant $$, this fight should get made.
If Canelo believes in himself and believes he can beat the MW champion straight up, it doesn't matter who has the belt, just who leaves the ring with it. They just basically avoided the purse split of 55/45......but to do 1 MIL+ buys, Canelo still needs GGG.......unless Floyd or Manny decide to fight him....both of which he'd probably lose although less painfully...
But if he truly stands by his post-fight confidence, they'll get this done around 60/40 at 160......70/30 is too low.....GGG fighting nobody's albeit mandatories, gets the same rankings on HBO as Canelo so assuming GGG has no leverage just isn't correct.......
60/40 for Canelo is fair. It can also be his "official" move to MW......there's value in that even if he gets beat by GGG.
With that split, Canelo will end up with a guarantee around 15 MIL and GGG around 11 MIL plus a part of the ppv......and I think it will be for all three major belts and do around 1.5 MIL buys.......neither can make that kind of purse or those ppv numbers without going at or below 154 AND ONLY IF....Floyd or Pac is interested in Canelo at around 152-154, (neither are interested in GGG.)
Problem is, Floyd won't do HBO and Canelo going after an even smaller guy?? Won't look good.......so realistically, they are still each others best possible opponent.
I think GGG wants the big money fight and will take a 40/60....he might even agree to 158.....but he's not gonna give much more than that.
Canelo should offer exactly that and he could get a rematch clause if he wants one. I believe he thinks he can beat GGG and based on his comments and the good reputation he's building, he really should make this fight happen.....
But if he doesn't fight GGG whatever the reason, he will have to save face with his fans and for his own pride by fighting a real MW at 160.....I'm betting Saunders would be much more interested in fighting Canelo than GGG.....?? Then he'd have that 4th major title GGG wants too...
But if that happens, he still has to fight GGG eventually.....let's be real....the dude is a beast and for real, not hype. If you know boxing you can see that.....and Canelo has too much pride to wait it out too long like Floyd did vs Pac and a fanbase that won't put up with avoiding GGG for long.
I think the fight gets made. I think GGG wins by KO.......but if it's made this year, Canelo won't be hurt by the loss at all because he will hang tough as long as it lasts......no shame in that. Hell....he could win if he can steal a few rounds and steal a decision. He did get one even card vs Floyd and some of his wins were MUCH closer than cards-most think he's gotten away with at least a couple- so judges clearly favor him......
I just believe GGG is better in every category and Canelo surviving, much less winning is not likely.....
Canelo will take a hit if he avoids the fight outright and an even bigger hit if he fights another WW.....
Hope it happens. Hope the move is just to get the business rolling.
But..... If the negotiations are reasonable and Canelo won't take the fight or tries to force 155 after all the **** he talked?? Or even worse, gets another name to move up to his weight?? He'll take a big hit career-wise that he won't fully recover from until he fights GGG.....
So why not now? Canelo "doesn't frock around", right??
This is simple for GGG....if the fight falls apart, Canelo will be the one that looks bad. GGG can try to get Saunders or Jacobs to completely unify.
Eventually GBP and Canelo will figure out they really do need GGG to get the ppv numbers they are looking for. He does have legit opponents at 154 in Lara, Charlo bros, Andrade, etc., but none with anywhere near the buzz of GGG. Plus, they play for Al Haymon. Tough pill for Oscar to swallow especially to split at a max of 300k buys??
Lemieux maybe??........But they still max at 250-300k buys and will lose leverage and the Mexican fans patience the longer they wait......and the worse Canelo will look...
GGG vs Canelo happens. I believe both fighters truly want it to happen. Don't think Canelo is scared.
But if it doesn't happen, at least by 5/2017? Canelo will inherit a nickname his mentor and promoter once had......and by then it will be well deserved. And hard to shake if he doesn't back his tough-guy words and fight GGG.
"Chicken Canelo" anyone?? Lol.....
I'd prefer GBP "not frock around" and do it this Sept 17.
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