Canelo's key to victory is DEFENSE, not offense

[cupocity303]

That's a horrible idea but let me say one thing, Canelo likes to be a cutie in there so Canelo WILL attempt this. However, expect to see him fail miserably. Mayweather has the reach advantage, the hand speed advantage and is considerably much faster on his feet, this plan won't work.

We'll see. I will say though that if with this "cutie" style, he manages to negate whatever Floyd is trying to do offensively, and they're both just staring at each other and not landing anything of note for 2 minutes and 30 seconds, one quick spurt of punches up against the ropes may steal the round.

That is if he doesn't overcommit. Remember, you throw a few punches, get the crowd to react and back off = successful (even if it didn't land). You overcommit and try to throw more and Floyd wins the encounter by showing his defense and displaying that smile of his (Hey look at me, it didn't bother me at all, I got this Yo!!!)

[Porter's Dad]

It's an interesting point. I was amazed how poor Guerrero's defence against Mayweather was - Floyd was practically telegraphing that right hand lead, I could sense the rhythm of when Floyd was about to throw it but Robert just got caught again and again and again. In fact, a lot of the guys he has fought in the last few years have had poor defence.

I know people think the way to beat Mayweather is educated pressure like Castillo and Cotto, but Saul can't change who he is for one fight - he's a technical boxer with fluid combinations. If he tries to become a pressure fighter and become obsessed with getting Mayweather on the ropes, Floyd will just pot-shot to death.

However, his offence is going to be vitally important - he HAS to let his hands go, he has very fluid combinations and is an accurate puncher. He can't try to over-think it and hold back his punches to lure Floyd in. Floyd seems to have been wigged out by Cotto's power, and I do believe Canelo punches harder than Miguel. If you're gonna outweigh a guy by 15 pounds, you have to get your power punches off.

Basically, he's gotta be defensive sound and offensively active, while all the while being smart and ready to adjust within rounds. It's a big task but I do believe he's got the ability to do it.

He's gotta get the crowd oohing and aahing and stock-pile the early rounds. Because Floyd WILL finish the fight better - not just because of Saul's stamina but because Floyd always finishes well, and if he feels the decision is in jeaporady, he is going to fight his ass off.

I really believe Canelo is being slept on a lot on this forum. People really underrate this boy's skills, ring IQ and freakish poise in the ring.

It's almost like people want to discredit it now so if Floyd wins, they can see they thought he would so all along and give him no credit. I think it would be a great win for Floyd, as long as the 2 pounds CW doesn't have a big effect (which we wont know until after he fight)

[SD180sx]

Gonna be a boring fight if both have defensive plans.But I see Floyd tagging up Alvarez no matter what his strategy is.

[IronDanHamza]

It's an interesting point. I was amazed how poor Guerrero's defence against Mayweather was - Floyd was practically telegraphing that right hand lead, I could sense the rhythm of when Floyd was about to throw it but Robert just got caught again and again and again. In fact, a lot of the guys he has fought in the last few years have had poor defence.

I know people think the way to beat Mayweather is educated pressure like Castillo and Cotto, but Saul can't change who he is for one fight - he's a technical boxer with fluid combinations. If he tries to become a pressure fighter and become obsessed with getting Mayweather on the ropes, Floyd will just pot-shot to death.

However, his offence is going to be vitally important - he HAS to let his hands go, he has very fluid combinations and is an accurate puncher. He can't try to over-think it and hold back his punches to lure Floyd in. Floyd seems to have been wigged out by Cotto's power, and I do believe Canelo punches harder than Miguel. If you're gonna outweigh a guy by 15 pounds, you have to get your power punches off.

Basically, he's gotta be defensive sound and offensively active, while all the while being smart and ready to adjust within rounds. It's a big task but I do believe he's got the ability to do it.

He's gotta get the crowd oohing and aahing and stock-pile the early rounds. Because Floyd WILL finish the fight better - not just because of Saul's stamina but because Floyd always finishes well, and if he feels the decision is in jeaporady, he is going to fight his ass off.

I really believe Canelo is being slept on a lot on this forum. People really underrate this boy's skills, ring IQ and freakish poise in the ring.

It's almost like people want to discredit it now so if Floyd wins, they can see they thought he would so all along and give him no credit. I think it would be a great win for Floyd, as long as the 2 pounds CW doesn't have a big effect (which we wont know until after he fight)

I think it's going to be completely different when it's right infront of you.

From the outside, you can sense when that right hand is coming but it's going to be a whole different thing when it's accross from you.

Mayweather feints and positions regularly, it might look telegraphed but you never really know when he's actually going to spring it. Let's not forget that it's a fast, sharp punch.

There's a reason he's so accurate with it.

[Doctor_Tenma]

We'll see. I will say though that if with this "cutie" style, he manages to negate whatever Floyd is trying to do offensively, and they're both just staring at each other and not landing anything of note for 2 minutes and 30 seconds, one quick spurt of punches up against the ropes may steal the round.

That is if he doesn't overcommit. Remember, you throw a few punches, get the crowd to react and back off = successful (even if it didn't land). You overcommit and try to throw more and Floyd wins the encounter by showing his defense and displaying that smile of his (Hey look at me, it didn't bother me at all, I got this Yo!!!)

That won't work as well, Floyd's upper body movement; reflexes are too good, Floyd will simply jab to the body until Canelo drops his guard and eats punches up top. When Floyd opts to jab to the body he's already dipping low looking to avoid incoming shots, it's nearly impossible to hit him. You also have to take Canelo's lack of foot speed into consideration, Floyd will turn him, make him reset. That's exactly why this plan won't work.

[Doctor_Tenma]

There was also a recent interview by a boxer who sparred both of them, while he acknowledged that Canelo improved he also said Canelo is still slow footed, and cited Mayweather's movement as being the reason Floyd will win.

[Tom Cruise]

This is unfounded hyperbole. And yes, lets add on Rigo to the mix because he just got his what? 11th professional victory?

It really isn't. He proves it in nearly every single fight that ive ever seen him in. Actually i'd say its his primary attribute over anything else.

Also it was Rigo's 12th victory, and against a top 5 p4p fighter at that.

You're making my point for me. Your primarily mentioned defense by saying "feints and misdirection". He does this with an overeager fighter trying to knock his head off. If Canelo doesn't oblige and tried to be as equally defensive by moving head side to side as he did VS Trout, Floyd will be forced to land too or stink out the joint, which is fine by me. This mentality that the 'other guy' has to make the fight happen is incorrect and leads to losing before the fight even starts. Floyd has to land punches too you know, and why make it easy on him. His offense and speed are not as good as you think. He doesn't throw fast combinations and his lead right or counter left are at their best when the fighter has absolutely no defense at all.

You make it sound like if Canelo stands off Floyd he will come charging in at him. Mayweather doesnt care if he stinks the place out, his objective is to win. Canelo stays on the outside he gives Mayweather room to open up his box of tricks, sometimes FM will lead with good jabs/right hands, sometimes he'll feint (hence why i mentioned it) and draw counters before throwing. He'll shoot and duck out left, shoot and duck out right and he'll do all this because he's thinking much quicker than Canelo. Look how much Guerrero struggled trying to time Mayweather and counter him, SA will be left chasing shadows all night.

Alvarez is a very good boxer i agree... Floyd is an elite one. The difference will show.

I disagree. These are NOMINAL advantages. Meaning statistically on sheet of paper, these are the advantages. Everyone can read the head-to-head stats and see that Canelo is categorically bigger (in weight), younger and therefore presumingly stronger. But those are not his key-to-victory advantages. You are falsely limiting Canelo's true abilities.

if both guys were the same size then the fight would be a complete mismatch, so yes i see Canelo's weight as being his main advantage in this fight. His other advantage i would say is his combination punching. Something that he would not be able to use if he implemented your plan.

This is just not true. See above. He can't do any worse than by plodding forward as the "Stronger, younger, bigger, powerful" ( nominal Hyperbole Blah!) guy.

Who said anything about plodding forward? He needs to use intelligent pressure. He has to use a strong jab, headmovement and good footwork to get inside and bully mayweather using his size and strength advantages to rough FM up and absolutely avoid a stand off boxing match at all costs. Once he's inside he needs to rip his (excellent) combinations to body and head to try and slow FM down and take him out of his comfort zone.

Does he have the skills/stamina to do it? I dont know. But i think it gives him more of a shot than the alternative.

[KickAzz]

If the ginger is gonna fight defensively this is gonna be the most boring fight ever,. Might be even more boring than Cherrypicker/Baldomir. Not worth $70

[IronDanHamza]

That won't work as well, Floyd's upper body movement; reflexes are too good, Floyd will simply jab to the body until Canelo drops his guard and eats punches up top. When Floyd opts to jab to the body he's already dipping low looking to avoid incoming shots, it's nearly impossible to hit him. You also have to take Canelo's lack of foot speed into consideration, Floyd will turn him, make him reset. That's exactly why this plan won't work.

That's Mayweather's biggest key to victory IMO.

Canelo has to be set to throw his combinations.

He's not going to beat Mayweather fighting at his pace, and what Mayweather needs and will force him to do.

[cupocity303]

You make it sound like if Canelo stands off Floyd he will come charging in at him. Mayweather doesnt care if he stinks the place out, his objective is to win. Canelo stays on the outside he gives Mayweather room to open up his box of tricks,

What box of tricks? That he doesn't really wanna waste too much energy and throw combinations. Those tricks? Or that he really isn't that fast of a puncher anymore, and that they primarily look good and effective when his opponent is overeagerly coming at him.

sometimes FM will lead with good jabs/right hands, sometimes he'll feint (hence why i mentioned it) and draw counters before throwing. He'll shoot and duck out left, shoot and duck out right and he'll do all this because he's thinking much quicker than Canelo. Look how much Guerrero struggled trying to time Mayweather and counter him, SA will be left chasing shadows all night.

Don't compare Guerrero to Canelo. Guerrero is garbage and the equivalent to a Henry Bruseles type fighter. He didn't even warrant a PPV main event opportunity. Shotime's attempt at pushing him as an All-Time threat was too transparent. Anybody with one eye could see a one-sided Boxing lesson coming, with Floyd coasting.

Alvarez has DEFENSE and can handle those things that Guerrero couldn't. And has better offense and won't smother himself every time he attempts to throw like Guerrero did.

Alvarez is a very good boxer i agree... Floyd is an elite one. The difference will show.

Floyd, Money Team hyperbole Talk Alert!!!

if both guys were the same size then the fight would be a complete mismatch, so yes i see Canelo's weight as being his main advantage in this fight. His other advantage i would say is his combination punching. Something that he would not be able to use if he implemented your plan.

Did I say that these NOMINAL advantages were completely irrelevant and not beneficial at all? NO, it doesn't hurt to have youth on your side and be a natural 154 pounder (albeit a 152 pounder per contract stipulations). But those are not his keys to victory, that's just shallow talk. Those things help but what will put him over the top is his Boxing ability on full display. Not pressure, not overcommitment in trying to rough Floyd up. Just Box and negate Floyd's offense the way he negates his opponents.

Who said anything about plodding forward? He needs to use intelligent pressure. He has to use a strong jab, headmovement and good footwork to get inside and bully mayweather using his size and strength advantages to rough FM up and absolutely avoid a stand off boxing match at all costs.

So basically do what every other guy attempts to do. Fight like Delahoya? No, he doesn't do this. Perhaps put on a better performance than Zab Judah by Boxing is what he should shoot for.