Andy Lee does not = Martinez

[LA_2_Vegas]

I'm not asking who would win between Martinez vs Chavez. My question was what is it about the Andy Lee fight that made people go "Chavez would do well against Martinez." For example, the Mayweather vs Pacquiao thread we have at the top of the forum. Remember when the poll was literally 50/50?? After the Marquez fight, the poll heavily favored Mayweather. That Marquez fight showed that Pacquiao is very weak against counter punchers, therefore, Mayweather would do well against Pacquiao. So that change made sense. To me, that Andy Lee fight showed me that Chavez would do very well against guys like Paul Williams and Antonio Margarito. Not Martinez. What is it about Andy Lee?? Why not Zbik? Or Rubio?? or Manfredo? Why Lee?

I get what you're asking...I think Lee was just the final measuring stick for JR, and it had less to do with styles which I what I think you're really getting at. I think Lee was a meaningful type of win, but there was nothing really to take away from how Chavez did versus that style and use it to figure out how he would do against Sergio. It's more that he beat Lee, ok, now it's time to step it up to the max...most of it is timing. JR seems to be firing on all cylinders right now....

[Jayallday9]

I've noticed that before the Chavez Jr vs Andy Lee fight, Martinez was the favorite between him and Chavez. After the Andy Lee fight though, some people switched and actually thought "Hmm, Chavez actually has a chance against Martinez." That's your opinion. But out of curiosity, how does beating Andy Lee convert anyone's thinking of Chavez beating Martinez? Someone with Chavez's style, it's easy to look impressive against the immobile Andy Lee. How does that fight reflect what Chavez is going to do against Martinez, whose style is completely different from Andy Lee? All I want to know is, what was it about Andy Lee people saw and said, "That's what's going to happen to Martinez. Even though Martinez moves around a lot, that's just going to happen anyways."

Ok I did go from Sergio destroys Chavez, to Sergio SHOULD beat Chavez and what changed me from certain to not so is the fact that nobody's enforcing some kind of limit on how big Jr. can come in the ring! Lee is not Sergio but he was outboxing him and landing big shots that didn't even faze Jr. Other than size, (maybe even drug testing issues), Sergio schools him but I think the kid is getting better.

[A-Wolf]

Chavez's body shots will tell the tale.

Chavez will eat counters if he even tries it. He walks in. This'll be a massacre.

[mathed]

Chavez will eat counters if he even tries it. He walks in. This'll be a massacre.

I agree, even the toughest walls get broken down if they are hit repeatedly with the right tools. That false confidence will only aid to Chavez' fall. Pavlik had all the same advantages, height, weight, chin and he got sliced up like side of beef at the butcher. Difference is Pavlik had better defense and boxing skill, Chavez is just going to try and walk up on Sergio - face first.

[El Angel]

If he intends to walk through Sergio's shots to get to his body, I can't see any fighter in the world executing such a suicide strategy.

[SPREAD]

I've noticed that before the Chavez Jr vs Andy Lee fight, Martinez was the favorite between him and Chavez. After the Andy Lee fight though, some people switched and actually thought "Hmm, Chavez actually has a chance against Martinez." That's your opinion. But out of curiosity, how does beating Andy Lee convert anyone's thinking of Chavez beating Martinez? Someone with Chavez's style, it's easy to look impressive against the immobile Andy Lee. How does that fight reflect what Chavez is going to do against Martinez, whose style is completely different from Andy Lee? All I want to know is, what was it about Andy Lee people saw and said, "That's what's going to happen to Martinez. Even though Martinez moves around a lot, that's just going to happen anyways."

I know and Andy Lee was knocked out by Brian Vera, but thats Chavez nuthuggers for you.

[intoccabile]

Anyone who watched ANY round of Lee vs Vera or McEwan knew he would lose to Chavez.

He has never looked good against pressure.

[IronDanHamza]

Anyone who watched ANY round of Lee vs Vera or McEwan knew he would lose to Chavez.

He has never looked good against pressure.

Andy Lee's just not very good in general.

[BigAlexSand]

Andy Lee has never been an Elite Fighter, nor has he had a great chin!

[b0ndsj0ns20]

I am one of the people that actually thinks Chavez Jr. is going to win and I'll explain why:

Andy Lee doesn't = Martinez, but on the flipside Chavez Jr. doesn't = Mathew Macklin, and I have watched Martinez-Macklin very closely, and what I saw was vulnerablity on the part of Martinez when under pressure. He has an arrogant style, which is crowd pleasing and impressive the way he executes it, but he does get hit. Mathew Macklin was getting to Martinez, he marked up his face pretty good, and I remember very clearly having macklin actually ahead on the card up until the stoppage (Although I've only had 1 viewing). Chavez Jr. is a much bigger and much stronger version of Mackin, who is a monster body puncher, and is just physically overwhelming and Martinez isn't active enough to keep this type of aggressive fighter at bay, he seems to fight in outbursts or spurts.

Chavez Jr. is obviously going to have a considerable size advantage, and the question becomes: How does Martinez deal with the pressure from a much bigger, much stronger, Chavez Jr? My best guess is that Martinez will not be able to handle this pressure. Macklin got to Sergio and even busted sergio up a bit and Macklin is much weaker than Chavez. One of the most critical advantages I forgot to mention about Chavez, is that he also has a strong chin. So add all that up:

Chavez Physically Stronger
Chavez Physically Bigger
Chavez Granite Chin
Chavez relentless pressure
Chavez Body punching that Sergio isn't used to

versus

Martinez superior hand speed
Martinez superior boxing ability
Martinez superior reflexes

=

Martinez outboxing Chavez for about 6 or 7 rounds then being systematically broken down physically and mentally.

Just my thoughts, I'm probably wrong tho..

I couldn't disagree with you more about Jr vs Macklin style wise. What Macklin did in that fight that was successful is he made Martinez come to him and countered him. That's the first guy I've ever seen attempt to do that to Martinez, and it actually worked for a while. The problem was Martinez is as good as anyone in the sport aside from maybe Floyd at making mid-fight adjustments. Now my question is can Chavez fight any other way than coming straight in and trying to attack the body? I've never seen it, and if that's all he has then he'll get stopped.