Gamblers Advisory;Dwyer: Mayweather-Pacquiao Prediction

[GG Marquez]

i respect Dwyre's opinion alot...he's been pretty on point with his predictions...however, i do question some of the key points that he brought up;


1) in his PAC-Cotto analysis, didnt he say that one of PAC's advantages was his ability to fight going backwards while Miguel couldn't? Now, PAC can't fight going backwards?

2) although i fully agree that a dominant right hand is imperative in fighting/beating PAC, his examples of Morales and Marquez might be slightly off...those two examples indeed have solid right hands but those two also threw more than one punch after firing the jab and launching the right

Dwyre could very well be correct in his assesment, however, he pictures (IMO) a floyd that is letting his hands go for a majority of the rounds...i haven't seen Floyd consistently let his hands go since the Gatti fight

Dwyer is right in line with the fight prediction I posted last week. We see the fight the same way.

1) I also feel that pac is not a good fighter going backwards. At least in the sense where his punching power isn't threatening. Pac likes to launch off his powerful legs to get the oomph in his punches. Or stop and plant.

2) Floyd is cautious early, and then when he gets comfortable, he does let his hands go. When necessary. I encourage you to watch the mid-round combos in both judah and hatton fights. In fact, the combos vs hatton is some of the prettiest boxing you will see in a ring.
I think people put the entire weight of Floyd's career on the Oscar and baldomir fights. Those were really outliers. Respectfully, set those 2 160+ pounders aside for a moment. Now look how much hurt he put on people.


I did see them splitting the first couple of rounds, then Floyd pulling away (cruising) during the 2nd and 3rd "thirds" of the fight to a 116-112 or 117-111 decision.

[mathed]

Fair point... I thought about mentioning something like that, but left it alone.

You can't really use Morales, or JMM as a gauge of the current Pac. The current Pac is beast.

That's why I think its entirely possible May could get steamrolled early

Maybe I should not have called the guy a clown but people keep reaching for reasons why the Pac will lose and the strands they are reaching for are thin at best.

[-MAKAVELLI-]

Fair point... I thought about mentioning something like that, but left it alone.

You can't really use Morales, or JMM as a gauge of the current Pac. The current Pac is beast.

That's why I think its entirely possible May could get steamrolled early

although there is a chance that your predicted scenario could happen, it's highly unlikely...say what you want about Floyd but he is one of this era's best defensive and adaptive fighters...moreover, i actually see a patient/cautious(?) PAC taking his time to do his own measuring...again tho, it all depends on floyd's punch output...if he sets a pedestrian pace, i can see PAC turning it up in the middle rounds to make it interesting

[Maidana vs Rios]

I don't get why Pac's inability to fight backwards has any relevance. Marquez, whose first instinct IS to fight backwards, was never backed up by Floyd. Marquez played the role of aggressor the entire fight. Yet, Floyd is somehow gonna back up Pac?

Whatever happens, Pac will come forward, and Floyd will fight off his back foot.

[-MAKAVELLI-]

Dwyer is right in line with the fight prediction I posted last week. We see the fight the same way.

1) I also feel that pac is not a good fighter going backwards. At least in the sense where his punching power isn't threatening. Pac likes to launch off his powerful legs to get the oomph in his punches. Or stop and plant.

2) Floyd is cautious early, and then when he gets comfortable, he does let his hands go. When necessary. I encourage you to watch the mid-round combos in both judah and hatton fights. In fact, the combos vs hatton is some of the prettiest boxing you will see in a ring.
I think people put the entire weight of Floyd's career on the Oscar and baldomir fights. Those were really outliers. Respectfully, set those 2 160+ pounders aside for a moment. Now look how much hurt he put on people.


I did see them splitting the first couple of rounds, then Floyd pulling away (cruising) during the 2nd and 3rd "thirds" of the fight to a 116-112 or 117-111 decision.

still not sure about the assessment of PAC not being able to throw with power backing up or countering...the 2nd KD of Cotto wasn't from a come-forward approach...nor was the KD in the JMM rematch or even the 1st KD in the EM rubbermatch...i think his explosive attack makes people underrate his ability to hurt opponents from other angles, especially backing up

you have to keep in mind that PAC's ulterior motive, whether moving forward or back, is to set up his offense...the 'off balance' punches, as confirmed by Shawn Porter himself, are really balanced shots...

my early thoughts of this potential bout is that Floyd slows PAC down early (possibly til round 3 or 4), then PAC picks up the pace and that's what when we'll see what Floyd has left


not knockin floyd but he HAS been retired for almost 2 years and a non-challenge against a blown up counter-puncher doesn't really prepare you for what PAC brings

[GG Marquez]

and another thing, for PAC to take massive shots from Cotto, it adds another element to this fight...what if he walks thru Floyd's shots? does floyd get discouraged? does he keep fighting, does he retreat to the ropes? i've also thought about numerous scenarios and diffrent glimpses of diffrent fights flash thru my mind


but i guess time will tell....lets see how floyd does with Matt Hatton first

Mak,

This is something I've thought about, and it's a legitimate question. But look at what Floyd does. He may hurt a guy, but is never in a hurry to finish him off. And he doesn't get reckless or careless or discouraged. That has been a hallmark of his fights. And that 'patience' has earned him alot of criticism along the way.

Here are some examples, if I may:

He hurt Corrales and dropped him 3x in round 7. Then came back in round 8 and still boxed and did his thing. Didn't overpursue or show discouragement that chico was still there.

He put Corley down with the repeated rights (overhand). But didn't want to overuse them so that Chop could time them and counter.

He hurt Gatti in rounds 4, 5, and 6. Especially what he did in early in round 6. He just skipped back to the corner, knowing the KO would come. Buddy calledit off, though.

He was punishing Zab in the corners and sensed the KO coming. Zab administered the vasectomy, and to Floyd;s credit, he was the only cool head in the house. Came back in round 11 with his gameplan. Contrast that with how aggy that Martinez came out after the Cintron pseudo-KO.

FMJ thought he had Hatton gone at the end of round 8. Was killing Ricky in the corner, and I actually thought the ref was gonna step in. Ricky threw a punch, FM stepped back, and the bell sounded. But he came out in round 9 jabbing to RESET the table. He didn't overcommit or get discouraged.

He caught Marquez with that nice lead left hook in round 2. when marquez got up, floyd went in for the test, but JMM hit Floyd witha two-piece and FM backed off and reset. Again in round 11, he was punishing JMM (which was when Eric was calling for a stoppage). JMM weathered, and Floyd came out patient in round 12.

Often after the fight, he may comment that he thought he had the guy hurt ("Ricky is tough as nails" or "Now I see why marquez won over 50 fights"), but PBF just doesn't rattle.

More than his physical skills, I think his patience/boxing brain/ ring demeanor is his best attribute.

. We all know now, as does Floyd, that Pac has an "A" chin. If Pac isn't weakening, Floyd will be happy to take a decision. FMJ fights for himself, not the crowd. Sometimes to a fault.

Thanks, Mak. Please tell me if i'm misinterpreting the action.

[GG Marquez]

not knockin floyd but he HAS been retired for almost 2 years and a non-challenge against a blown up counter-puncher doesn't really prepare you for what PAC brings

That is a great point. His competitive wheels will be rusty, and I suspect that was what was happening when we heard those Lamont Peterson tales in camp. A young , hungry lion who isn't gonna lay down when Floyd goes into his bag of tricks and smack-talking.

May needs some A+ sparring work for this. He used to rotate guys in and out, and will definitely need to do that for a whirlwind like Pac.

[-MAKAVELLI-]

Mak,

This is something I've thought about, and it's a legitimate question. But look at what Floyd does. He may hurt a guy, but is never in a hurry to finish him off. And he doesn't get reckless or careless or discouraged. That has been a hallmark of his fights. And that 'patience' has earned him alot of criticism along the way.

Here are some examples, if I may:

He hurt Corrales and dropped him 3x in round 7. Then came back in round 8 and still boxed and did his thing. Didn't overpursue or show discouragement that chico was still there.

He put Corley down with the repeated rights (overhand). But didn't want to overuse them so that Chop could time them and counter.

He hurt Gatti in rounds 4, 5, and 6. Especially what he did in early in round 6. He just skipped back to the corner, knowing the KO would come. Buddy calledit off, though.

He was punishing Zab in the corners and sensed the KO coming. Zab administered the vasectomy, and to Floyd;s credit, he was the only cool head in the house. Came back in round 11 with his gameplan. Contrast that with how aggy that Martinez came out after the Cintron pseudo-KO.

FMJ thought he had Hatton gone at the end of round 8. Was killing Ricky in the corner, and I actually thought the ref was gonna step in. Ricky threw a punch, FM stepped back, and the bell sounded. But he came out in round 9 jabbing to RESET the table. He didn't overcommit or get discouraged.

He caught Marquez with that nice lead left hook in round 2. when marquez got up, floyd went in for the test, but JMM hit Floyd witha two-piece and FM backed off and reset. Again in round 11, he was punishing JMM (which was when Eric was calling for a stoppage). JMM weathered, and Floyd came out patient in round 12.

Often after the fight, he may comment that he thought he had the guy hurt ("Ricky is tough as nails" or "Now I see why marquez won over 50 fights"), but PBF just doesn't rattle.

More than his physical skills, I think his patience/boxing brain/ ring demeanor is his best attribute.

. We all know now, as does Floyd, that Pac has an "A" chin. If Pac isn't weakening, Floyd will be happy to take a decision. FMJ fights for himself, not the crowd. Sometimes to a fault.

Thanks, Mak. Please tell me if i'm misinterpreting the action.

not at all fight fan...those are all prime examples of PBF not straying and executing his gameplan...his patience and his in-ring wits are top-notch...there is no denying that...it was proven, as you highlighted, in a riot situation when he kept his composure...the only one in the arena it seemed

i should have expounded my point a bit further as the situations you cited were all situations where he was, in essence, in control of the bout...by getting 'discouraged' or 'rattled', what i meant to relay was a situation in which he's not in 'full' control...you know what i mean?

he might be able to tee off and land but with the beard that PAC displayed a couple of weeks ago, it leads some to believe that no matter how much he's taking, PAC will keep engaging...and in exchanges, openings appear...what happens if in those openings, floyd himself starts taking some solid shots? for a fighter that rarely gets tagged, how does he react? does the composure remain? what if a firefight breaks out, will be equipped to maintain that type of fight?

basically, when things aren't going his way, as he's accustomed to, do we see that same poise?

i guess, that's the $65 ppv question....we'll just have to wait and see

[GG Marquez]

I don't get why Pac's inability to fight backwards has any relevance. Marquez, whose first instinct IS to fight backwards, was never backed up by Floyd. Marquez played the role of aggressor the entire fight. Yet, Floyd is somehow gonna back up Pac?

Whatever happens, Pac will come forward, and Floyd will fight off his back foot.

Splack,

Exactly what you said. Exactly that. Floyd forced Marquez to fight a fight style that JMM couldn't win. That is what he does best.

Figure out a guy's best chance of winning and what he wants to do...then take that away.

Physical Ability & Hunger - Advantage Manny

Boxing Intelligence - Advantage Floyd

[Cash Cow]

Am re-looking at the Cotto vs Pac fight over and over this past week, till today.

And even though am not a genius at analyzing I still believe Mayweather beats Pac and wont be surprised if he dominates him.

Cotto showed that by giving yourself some distance between you and pac then his speed aint so effective.

It's when he closes the gap and you don't clinch him or turn him to counter him that he punishes you because of his pop and fast hands. There's a big game plan to defeating him already set, it's just that his last 4 opponents have too much pride to think that a man coming from 112lbs aint big enough to hurt them that they decide to go for the KO and punish him. Instead getting punished themselves.

Of course I'll be shocked if not already, Pac blasts Money.

this is what I think might be Manny's problem vs Mayweather