Pacqiuao vs Mayweather: a serious compubox analysis

[K-Nan]

I can't tell you how flawed this thread is. Too bad boxing isn't a math equation.

[Texas Trill]

Floyd is 40-0, therefore my analysis suggests that Floyd will be the victor in his next fight.

*I note that Mayweather and Pac have not fought, thus limiting the accuracy of the analysis. However, the numbers suggest Floyd will win.

C WUT I DID THERE, Pull??

[The Gambler1981]

cause its my argument, who is gonna defend it if not me?


that's a losing argument because the human element is always involved in any analysis of the fight. if the human element makes the punchstats flawed then it makes your subjective judging also flawed.


I have admitted as such in the limitations of the analysis section, but this is compensated by the fact that both have never fought anyone quite like the other.


I have addressed every one of your concerns and the analysis still stands. you have said my argument is weak and flawed, but I have refuted all your criticism. you have yet to prove it it actually is.


if you truly believe this then take the numbers / stats provided by compubox and twist it to prove your point. I dare you.


The numbers and the formula were both impartial. If floyd's numbers after the math came up better than pac's I would've still posted the thread and would've chose floyd to win.

You dare me, is this first grade? They are meaningless statitics, sorry to rain on your parade but you wasted your time and effort. I am not going to waste my time generating meaningless statistics for some dude online who acts like a 10 year old girl~

[Bhopreign]

based on compubox's pre-fight analysis of pac/cotto... it went pretty closely to what they predicted. was that just luck?

You cant remove the human element, if everything went according to script like that we'd all be rich off of investments and what not. Even you would be rich in betting on fights if everything went accordingly. How do your calculations work for the first Morales fight and the second, Pac won one and Morales won one good sir?

[Pullcounter]

I can't tell you how flawed this thread is. Too bad boxing isn't a math equation.

lolz... what math equations try to do is describe natural phenomenon. math has real world application, they aren't always just abstract constructs.

Floyd is 40-0, therefore my analysis suggests that Floyd will be the victor in his next fight.

*I note that Mayweather and Pac have not fought, thus limiting the accuracy of the analysis. However, the numbers suggest Floyd will win.

C WUT I DID THERE, Pull??

that's not a very deep analysis.

You dare me, is this first grade? They are meaningless statitics, sorry to rain on your parade but you wasted your time and effort. I am not going to waste my time generating meaningless statistics for some dude online who acts like a 10 year old girl~

lols... then you have no argument.

I will engage you on your level then, since you cannont engage me on mine's:

YOU ****** ***** FLOYD IS GAY AND SO ARE YOU!

it seems this is the kind of argumentation you prefer.

[Pullcounter]

You cant remove the human element,

that's a losing argument for you, because your subjective judging criteria is no better than the punchstats because both contain the human element.

if everything went according to script like that we'd all be rich off of investments and what not. Even you would be rich in betting on fights if everything went accordingly.

some people like using thier brains, some people like going with their gut feeling. who can say who is wrong? personally I prefer the guy using his brain.

How do your calculations work for the first Morales fight and the second, Pac won one and Morales won one good sir?

I don't have these kinda stats for morales and pac before their fights so I can't analyze them.

[K-Nan]

lolz... what math equations try to do is describe natural phenomenon. math has real world application, they aren't always just abstract constructs.

Okay Einstein.. Why don't you go and look up what a VARIABLE is. Because you have completely disregarded that aspect of mathmatics. You took the numbers inti consideration without considering the circumstance. Or even using common sense.

Floyd's past opponents aren't Manny Pacquiao. Vice versa. Elite fighters adapt. They aren't robots who put out the same consistent numbers. They have to adapt to the given circumstances. If you think that either guy is going to be putting up the same kind of numbers, then you have completely misunderstood the level of opponent that each guy is facing. Floyd will get hit more- but you can bet your last penny that Pacquiao will get hit ALOT more too. Manny won't be landing at the rate that he landed against past opponents. I mean, honestly think about what you're saying: You insinuated that Manny Pacquiao is going to land on Floyd with the same consistency that he landed on Oscar Delahoya and Ricky Hatton. Do you hear yourself? Are we missing anything??

That isn't "math". That isn't even an analysis. That is a ridiculous skewing of numbers to fit your agenda. And I'm 99.9999999999999% sure that even YOU don't buy that bull****. Now there is some math for you.

[h2k]

compubox stats taken from
- http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/9/16...iance-of-floyd
- http://compuboxonline.com/special_co...man_last_3.pdf

The Stats:

In Floyd's last 5 fights he's thrown an average of 37 punches per round and landed an average of 15.9 punches per round; at a 42.9 connect percentage.

Floyd's opponents landed at connect percentage of 16.4%.

In Pac's last 4 fights he's thrown an average of 67 punches a round and landed an average of 28.8 punches per round; at a 42.4% connect percentage.

Pac's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 25.3%.

The Math

So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round.

Here's the number crunch folks:
In a heads up match up, Floyd would land [(37 x 25.3%) + 15.9]/2 = 12.63 punches per round on Pac, and Pac would land [(67 x 16.4% ) + 28.8]/2 = 19.89 punches per round on Floyd.

Conclusion of the Analysis:

Even though Floyd is more accurate by .5% and his defense is better by 8.9%, Pac's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Pac manages to outland floyd by 7.26 punches per round.

Limits of the Analysis:

- I just looked at the total number of punches and was too lazy to calculate the jabs and power punches separately.
- This analysis does not take into consideration subjective judging criteria.
- To be sure, Floyd's last 5 opponents do not fight like Pac and neither does Pac's last 4 opponents fight like Floyd.

Prediction:

Considering Pac will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, and that Pac punches harder than Floyd, and the limitations of this analysis, I predict that Pac will win a SD or close UD, with the possibility of Pac knocking down Floyd at least once.

Numbers don't lie.

[Pullcounter]

Okay Einstein.. Why don't you go and look up what a VARIABLE is. Because you have completely disregarded that aspect of mathmatics. You took the numbers inti consideration without considering the circumstance. Or even using common sense.

Floyd's past opponents aren't Manny Pacquiao. Vice versa. Elite fighters adapt. They aren't robots who put out the same consistent numbers. They have to adapt to the given circumstances. If you think that either guy is going to be putting up the same kind of numbers, then you have completely misunderstood the level of opponent that each guy is facing. Floyd will get hit more- but you can bet your last penny that Pacquiao will get hit ALOT more too. Manny won't be landing at the rate that he landed against past opponents. I mean, honestly think about what you're saying: You insinuated that Manny Pacquiao is going to land on Floyd with the same consistency that he landed on Oscar Delahoya and Ricky Hatton. Do you hear yourself? Are we missing anything??

That isn't "math". That isn't even an analysis. That is a ridiculous skewing of numbers to fit your agenda. And I'm 99.9999999999999% sure that even YOU don't buy that bull****. Now there is some math for you.

lols... how many times I gotta say this... floyd's defense is already calculated in the equation because I multiply pac's average punches per round by floyd's opponent's connect percentage and average that with pac's average punches landed per round.

if you understood the math you will see that I am not skewing anything.

also, in the limitations of my analysis section, I already state that pac has never met a fighter as unique as floyd, but the same holds for floyd, he has never met a fight as unique as pac. since that hold true for both, its a wash... there is no advantage gained by floyd or pac.

[Bhopreign]

I don't have these kinda stats for morales and pac before their fights so I can't analyze them.

Thats the point, it doesnt matter what numbers you can contrive they wouldnt tell any facts. The fact that Morales won the first fight cant give you any indication he would lose the second fight based on any kind of punch stats considering Morales landed more and got hit less.