NSB PICK EM 2023 #28: SATURDAY 13th MAY 2023

[SteveM]

I believe we were supposed to change the verbiage on it. I’ve been MIA from a serious wreck racing motorcycles on the track.
I won’t be surprised if it’s a draw tbh. We will see! Good luck to you brother

Damn! You like being in the wars

[ShoulderRoll]

ShoulderRoll, Astrolabio, DEC, CLOSE

[siablo14]

ShoulderRoll, Astrolabio, DEC, CLOSE

Not a bad pick, Roll, even if you lose.

[Tatabanya]

I can't fùcking believe it. For the second weekend in a row I decided to waste my money on the wrong fight between a selected pair, while the other one goes exactly as I had considered betting (Romero KO 9-11). More hundreds flying away. Perhaps I'm just plain ******, also in view of my absolute lack of tactical moves here in the League... Why insisting on keeping Moloney KO while almost all the rest is picking a decision? Sure enough, Jason fought like a sissy...

Result:

Moloney DEC close

Standings on May 14, 2023, while waiting for SteveM to find all my errors of five months in his upcoming masterthread

Mammoth	780
FinitoxDinamita	760
SceneBoxer	700
BigZ44	680
mlac	680
Chrismart	660
SteveM	660
ruedboy	650
Baltimore	640
RJJ-94-02=GOAT	640
siablo14	640
DamnWicked	620
Koba	620
Tatabanya	610
Ganondorf	590
MikeyG	570
ShoulderRoll	570
BLASTER1	560
Idunnoshet	550
SUBZER0ED	500
El-Malo-	480
NCUppercut	460
Superbee	400
bobbybobberton	350
BobLoblaw	350
MulaKO	340
bmorph	330
YoungManRumble	230
Fanofreason	220
ProblemChild_JakePaul	160
BlakBread904	110
..david..	80
Ronan Smith	80
Eco1	60
MusoMeanderings	50
-MEGA-	40
mathed	40
Satir	40
Koolkc107	30

[Tatabanya]

Ah right, thanks, yeah, missed that. I crunched the numbers at some point last year and shifted it by 1 point to get a more statistically equal division between CLOSE and CLEAR but I can't for the life of me remember which was the original and which was the new one. In any event at this point in the year the only fair choice is to stick with whichever one Tatabanya has been using and then get that changed in the OP accordingly.

Whilst we're on the subject was it you who offered to run up a provisional master thread a while back Steve? If so I think the time has come when I may have to call on your help. I just seem to have some massive block on it and every time I sit down to it just find myself doing other stuff. I'll have one more stab this weekend but if I ain't got something up by Mon Eve it'd be massively appreciated if you'd give it a go cos this has gone on away to long.

To date I have followed the 0-9 etc. criteria. Nine points difference = close decision.

[SteveM]

Standings on May 14, 2023, while waiting for SteveM to find all my errors of five months in his upcoming masterthread

When/if Koba gives me the nod to do the master thread - I'm putting up the definitive rules and checking on peep's multipliers maybe. I'm not going back checking 5 months of scores. More so the master thread is a sticky to discuss general issues and discuss which fights - and all in one place rather than scattered in all the fight threads.

[Tatabanya]

Sure enough, Jason fought like a sissy...

Now he's saying he broke a hand early in the fight... Either way, I should have bet on Rolly

[SteveM]

Now he's saying he broke a hand early in the fight... Either way, I should have bet on Rolly

Hindsight is a wonderful attribute. We kinda knew that Rolly is being afforded special attributes. We know that Weeks has favoured fighters before (Ward vs Kov) and we know that Barroso has zero commercial value in the sport. All together indicating Rolly had special privileges - he even said it pre-fight.

But calmly dissecting all of that and coming out with a betting strategy isn't easy as the natural inclination is to doubt oneself because it seems like a conspiracy theory and boxing would never sink so low. Right?

[Tatabanya]

Hindsight is a wonderful attribute. We kinda knew that Rolly is being afforded special attributes. We know that Weeks has favoured fighters before (Ward vs Kov) and we know that Barroso has zero commercial value in the sport. All together indicating Rolly had special privileges - he even said it pre-fight.

But calmly dissecting all of that and coming out with a betting strategy isn't easy as the natural inclination is to doubt oneself because it seems like a conspiracy theory and boxing would never sink so low. Right?

For me, it's just a classic case of overthinking, à la Charlie Brown if you will. I always privilege reasoning over gut instinct - which, in betting, equals certain death most of the times.

[SteveM]

For me, it's just a classic case of overthinking, à la Charlie Brown if you will. I always privilege reasoning over gut instinct - which, in betting, equals certain death most of the times.

"certain death" - made me laugh mate. But I have noticed when I look at the videos that Mikey G puts up instead of going by age, resume, gut instinct etc - I more often that not get it wrong - and of course looking at the videos leads to info overload (for me anyway) and overthinking it.