This morning I watched the fight for the third time. Each time it looked better for Pavlik. I'm not going to bother going through round by round (I did that on the second viewing: http://www.boxingscene.com/forums/showthread.php?t=156348), but Pavlik said some things on the Countdown that gave me reason to rewatch.
1. According to Leow, Pavlik claims to have realized he had JT beaten when Taylor's pec quivered. This was BEFORE Kelly landed the big right hand that pushed Taylor back to the corner. When did Kelly hurt JT so badly that the TKO became inevitable? This happened very gradually, though I still think the key punch in the fight, if there was one, was a right hand in the middle of Round 6.
This is important only against the theory that Pavlik at some point turned the fight around. I watched the fight this morning with this in mind, and it was indeed a slow, steady beating without genuine turning points. It doesn't matter that JT won a few of those rounds. Kelly doesn't need the rounds, he takes a toll even in rounds he's losing.
2. Pavlik said he's not sure Jermaine's body can last the fight. He understands how he broke him down, that Taylor cannot take the punishment he has to give. I had wondered whether JT could win a decision in the rematch. I now think there's little to no chance of it going the distance.
3. Taylor made the better technical adjustments. By the fifth round Taylor had figured out Pavlik's timing on his punches. Taylor managed to slip jabs and rights and come back with his own shots. But Pavlik never ceased, he didn't let losing the battle diminish his output. I realized in that round this morning that even if Taylor wins the first eight rounds next week, he'll get knocked out after that. So don't bother keeping a scorecard next week.
Until today I was giving Taylor a chance. No more.
Under consideration:
Taylor claims to have had a bad camp prior to the first fight. Claims to have had done everything “half-assed” (his words). Also claims to have been struggling to make weight for some time. The fact that his rematch clause puts this fight at 166 seems to back that up.
Taylor looks to be truly motivated for the rematch. Moreover, he appears to believe with conviction that he can take Pavlik out. As far as he’s concerned, he had him out of there last time—half assed—so nothing will stop him this time around. Not saying this is true but it does look to be the best attitude he could possibly have under the circumstances.
My opinion is both guys likely struggled to make weight first time around. Pavlik is the naturally bigger guy. Naturally the stronger guy. But Taylor is much faster. The question is will 166 really make a difference? Pavlik won’t be weaker. Probably won’t be slower. But Taylor could be stronger than last time. His stamina will presumably be better. His skills will remain intact. And I don’t see the weight slowing him down. He might be more comfortable.
I would never discount Pavlik’s strength, desire or skill. And I don’t doubt for a second that all those things played into him being able to survive the second round of the first fight. But the fact is he was badly hurt and if Taylor was in good shape mentally and physically that night, I see the fight ending in that second round. In the rematch I don’t see how Pavlik could be any more motivated than he was for the first fight. Taylor is.
I like everything about Pavlik and have never been particularly enamored with Taylor. But I’m going out on a limb and predicting Taylor will win an uncontroversial decision.
I say no KO in this one. its gonna be a UD for pavlik with all 12 rounds going his way. simple reason, both fighters will learn from their mistakes and pavlik will use the strategy that he had after the 2nd round KD which is a little more defensive than his usual open fighting. Taylor will conserve his energy this time and be more relaxed and have less of a workrate which is doubley good for pavlik cause Taylor will put less pressure and pavlik fights better under those circumstances. Also, taylor has no answer for pavlik's jabs which will break him down mentally as the fight goes on. Its a 12 round sweep for pavlik IMO.
If JT can avoid gettin hit with so many jabs he'll do just fine! If Pavlik is able to land his jab at will like he did in the first fight, then expect the same result!
How will JT react to gettin hit with Pavliks right hand? Is he REALLY ready for this type of puncher after being so brutally KO'ed? How will he react when he's hurt again? JT gotta answer alot of questions on Saturday night! Expect a high pace slug-a-thon! Whoever lands the hard stuff first will win! :boxing:
taylor is gonna lose, between this fight and last he lost the only thing he had going that would allow him to beat pavlik....
his HBO's pride and joy status and the judges that go along with it
I give Taylor a chance if he doesn't fight like a fool the way he did in the last fight. Pavlik can be outpointed if his opponents can stay away from his right. But I agree with Kayjay. It doesn't look good for Taylor.
Why is there always like a huge fucking white space that stretches the page after everyone of your posts?
I just deleted some shit from my sig and must have not fixed it right...
Great analyses by everyone; it just makes me want to see this fight even more!...
Why is there always like a huge fucking white space that stretches the page after everyone of your posts?