On the day when the challenger's home nation crowns a monarch, the current fistic king of Mexico comes home.

For the first time since a 2011 stoppage of Kermit Cintron, and in front of roughly 50,000 fans, Saul Alvarez will step into the ring in Mexico in a fight that plays at least in part as just as much a celebration as a contest. 

Saturday (DAZN PPV, 7 PM EST), Alvarez will defend the undisputed super middleweight championship against the UK’s John Ryder with an eye on bigger things. A rematch with Dmitrii Bivol would be a chance at revenge. A showdown with David Benavidez would likely be a huge draw on pay-per-view. 

Can Ryder shock the world and turn all eyes to him? 

Let’s get into it. 

Stats and Stakes

Saul Alvarez

Age: 32

Titles: Ring/WBC/WBA Super Middleweight (2020-Present, 3 Defenses); WBO Super Middleweight (2021-Present, 2 Defenses); Lineal/TBRB/IBF Super Middleweight (2021-Present, 1 Defense)

Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17); Ring World Middleweight (2015-18, 2 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2019); Lineal World Middleweight (2015-20, 4 Defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC/WBA Middleweight (2018-Present, 1 Defense)

Height: 5’8 

Weight: 167 ½ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico

Record: 58-2-2, 39 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 18-2-1, 10 KO (19-2-1, 11 KO including WBA sub-title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 133-3-1 (.974)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Ryan Rhodes TKO12; Josesito Lopez TKO5; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather Jr. L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Gennady Golovkin D12, MD12, UD12; Rocky Fielding TKO3; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Sergey Kovalev KO11; Callum Smith UD12; Billy Joe Saunders RTD8; Caleb Plant TKO11; Dmitry Bivol L12

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12

Vs.

John Ryder

Age: 34

Title/Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’9

Weight: 168 lbs.

Stance: Southpaw

Hails from: London, England, United Kingdom

Record: 32-5, 18 KO, 1 KOBY

Rankings: #3 (BoxRec), #4 (ESPN), #5 (TBRB, Ring)

Record in Major Title Fights: 0-1 (1-1, 1 KO including interim title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 105-11-1 (.902)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Callum Smith L12; Daniel Jacobs SD12; Zach Parker RTD4

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Billy Joe Saunders L12

The Pick: This fight feels like one of those where the challenger might need to win every round to get a draw. It’s simply hard to imagine a scenario where Alvarez can lose short of being caught with a perfect punch in front of a raucous, partisan crowd. That’s assuming there would be a scenario where Ryder could mount that sort of challenge, which seems itself unlikely. 

Ryder is a solid professional with quick hands, decent defense, and a southpaw approach that could give Alvarez some issues early on. Ryder could easily have won the decision against Callum Smith in his first, and only, title shot to date. It’s Ryder’s only loss in his last nine starts; at 34, Ryder enters on the best run of his career. His narrow win over Daniel Jacobs showed how tricky Ryder can be at close quarters. Alvarez has excellent head movement but Ryder is good at landing the lead right hook at short range.

Where Ryder will struggle is in offsetting the body attack of Alvarez. The experience gap here is wide. Alvarez has almost twice as many fights, superior power and defense, has seen it all. His patience, conditioning, and heavy hands should steadily erode the challenge from Ryder. Ryder will put up a good fight but Alvarez is too complete a fighter and one looking to show the world he remains at the top of his game. The pick is Alvarez sometime around the eighth or ninth round.  

Rold Picks 2023: 18-4

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com