By Cliff Rold

Before his professional career was even two years old, the question was already floating around: when was Anthony Joshua going to ‘step up.’

It’s always a good sign for a potential star when the masses start getting impatient almost immediately. That’s when the promoters know they have money in the bank, just waiting to be collected.

From the beginning, Joshua (18-0, 18 KO) has carried the aura of a star. Size, charisma, athleticism, power, and youth; he looks like the total package. This weekend, we see the 27-year old step up. His career still isn’t even four years old but the 2012 super heavyweight Olympic Gold medalist has already arrived at stardom.

Now he just has to beat a real guy.

It’s the wild, unpredictable element as we head into the weekend.

On one side of the ring, we have the most accomplished heavyweight since Lennox Lewis. On the other side, a young fighter whose only real brush with a top ten contender (Charles Martin, from whom he wrested the IBF belt he carries into the fight) arguably wasn’t really a brush at all. Martin’s entry into some top tens came after beating a fighter (Vyacheslav Glazkov) who’d been more lucky then good in getting rated at all and Martin won the belt on an injury.

Other fallen Joshua foes Dominick Breazeale and Dillian Whyte have since won memorable wars but time will tell if they establish themselves as genuine contenders in the years ahead.

It’s a hell of a jump to go from the likes of Whyte and Martin to the man who ruled the division for a decade.

Wladimir Klitschko (64-4, 53 KO) enters off a defeat to Tyson Fury in 2015 and a lost year spent waiting for a rematch that never came to pass. Now 41, one can assume he’s past his best.

How far past his best is the question no one can answer yet.

In three of the four fights prior to Fury, Klitschko had easily defended his title against top ten contenders Alexander Povetkin, Kubrat Pulev and Bryant Jennings. Pulev was one of the most perfect performances of his career, a devastating knockout marked by the sort of aggression Klitschko rarely unleashes.

Against Fury he seemed confused, a little gun shy, and unable to pull the trigger when he needed to. Maybe it meant Klitschko had finally hit the wall; maybe it meant Fury had a great game plan. Again, we really don’t know the answer yet. One can guess the Joshua team is thinking, hoping, it’s the former. If what we have on our hands this weekend is just a well-rested Klitschko with still plenty in the tank, still probably the most devastating puncher in the world, it could turn out to be a disastrous gamble.

It’s an incredibly gutsy wager by the Joshua side either way. The economic upside doesn’t hurt. This is a global mega fight big enough to make Showtime (Live, 4:15 PM EST/1:15 PM PST) and HBO (Tape Delay, 11 PM EST) break bread.      

The crowd this weekend will feature over 90,000 overwhelmingly rabid UK fans there to see a coronation. Boxing has always been able to draw a massive crowd for the right fights at the right times. Few have drawn this many. The second Joe Louis-Max Schmeling fight had over 70,000 in the stands. Muhammad Ali-Leon Spinks II drew over 63,000 and set an indoor attendance record for boxing.

Klitschko is no stranger to stadium events. His fight with Fury drew over 55,000 and before that a bout with David Haye drew over 45,000 and those are just a couple that stand out in a career filled with some major crowds. Even he will likely be a little awed by the swell around him this weekend. At heavyweight, we might have to go back to the pair of Gene Tunney-Jack Dempsey fights, both of which drew more than 100,000 fans, to find a more impressive mass of fans.

That crowd is coming because they believe in Joshua and they’re coming because of the bona fides of the man facing him. Fury may have captured history’s crown in the division but Klitschko is largely still the face of the class. Fury’s absence and outside the ring issues since that win make Klitschko the de facto man in the ring as well. Since the retirement of Lewis it has been he or his brother ruling the roost for most of a generation.

Fury ended a reign but Joshua is here to seize the torch as the face of the future. Is Joshua really ready for this?

If he is the future of the division, the lack of deeper opposition might not matter all as much as the timing. In 2015, this scribe took a look at the development of a then 13-0 Joshua in comparison to other notable heavyweights of years past. Here’s what was written then:

Just shy of two years into his professional career, Joshua’s learning curve is a hair behind a Mike Tyson or Joe Louis, right on par with fighters like Riddick Bowe, Lennox Lewis, and Muhammad Ali, and might be a bit ahead of the Klitschko brothers.

Does that mean Joshua will ever be mentioned with those fighters?

At 13-0, it’s too early to say. Those are the stakes though. When you have the look of the next big thing at Heavyweight, history is the measuring stick. Let’s take a closer look at where some of those men were at both their fourteenth professional start and the end of their second year as a pro.

Louis and Tyson had meteoric rises in the division. Louis was 24-1 at the end of his first two years in the sport and had his fourteenth fight just more than eight months after his debut. Fight fourteen came against journeyman Hans Birkie. Birkie’s record wasn’t as shiny as Cornish’s but he faced a who’s who of the time and typically lasted the route. Before his career was three years old, Louis moved to 31-1 and won the Heavyweight crown from James Braddock.

Tyson exploded out of the blocks much the same, though with much less staying power than Louis. He had his fourteenth fight a little more than nine months after debut against a Sammy Schaff who had lost his last two. His first belt came twenty months into his career when a Tyson won his 28th fight against Trevor Berbick. Tyson consolidated all of the major titles in August 1987, two years and five months into his career, and added history’s crown with a first round destruction Michael Spinks in June 1988.

For the impatient, Louis and Tyson didn’t leave much time to wonder how long it would be before they stepped up their competition. However, even in fast-forward, their career curves followed a fairly traditional path.

Louis mowed through the no hopers, then the former champions and regular contenders like Primo Carnera, King Levinsky, Paulino Uzcudun, and Max Baer. Louis had a famous hiccup with Max Schmeling but the volume of his conquests (and a little bit of global politics) kept him on his rocket ride to the title. Tyson went through the cans, really started to test the tougher waters in a showdown with James Tillis, and was consistently fighting top ten Heavyweights from Berbick forward.

If Joshua is a little behind what a Louis or Tyson was getting done at the two-year mark, he’s not alone. Those are outliers. Ali, Bowe and Lewis all followed development paths that are similar to where Joshua is today. Ali, then Cassius Clay, was 15-0 at the end of his first two years and in his fourteenth fight faced undefeated Billy Daniels. Like Cornish, Daniels had a shiny but suspect record. Ali stopped him in seven and Daniels would lose 21 times and win only seven more before he was done. Ali would win the title at roughly three and a half years in with his famous upset of Sonny Liston.

Joshua could match that. Assuming Klitschko continues his long reign, Joshua would have to be ready for the Ukrainian kingpin by February 2017. Is that a far-fetched scenario?

Bowe turned pro in March 1989 and had his fourteenth fight less than a year later against a much lesser foe than Cornish will be; a 4-5-1 no-hoper named Mike Robinson. By the end of his second year, he was adding veteran names like Pinklon Thomas and Tyrell Biggs to his resume. That’s probably a bit better than Joshua’s most recent knockout of former title challenger Kevin Johnson. He was ahead of Joshua at two years in that sense but Bowe maintained at that level for a while. His title shot came in a November 1992 with Evander Holyfield, three years and eight months after debut.

For Joshua, that would mean being ready for Klitschko by about April of 2017. Is that a far-fetched scenario?

Lewis, who like Joshua was an Olympic Super Heavyweight Gold Medalist, turned pro in June 1989. He got to fourteen wins in sixteen months, knocking off Jean-Marie Chanet. If no one remembers that name, well, why would they? At the two-year mark, Lewis had added only one more win. It was more impressive than Cornish, against an undefeated Gary Mason who was seen as on the fringes of the top ten when they fought. If Joshua wants to mimic Lewis, he’s not far off the course. Lewis stopped Razor Ruddock in two rounds in October 1992 to earn what should have been a crack at the Bowe-Holyfield winner.

It didn’t come to pass. Lewis wouldn’t ultimately win history’s crown until a 1998 knockout of Shannon Briggs and earned universal recognition as king with a win over Evander Holyfield in 1999. Could he have beaten Bowe in 1993? We’ll never know for sure, just like we won’t know for sure whether Joshua can beat Klitschko until he gets there and tries. Lewis was in position to challenge Bowe at what would have been right around the three and a half year mark of his career.

See above for dates and a question about scenarios.

Even if Joshua falls off the approximate parallels in pace between Ali, Bowe, and Lewis, he can look at some other big time Heavyweights and see he has time on his side. Both Klitschko brothers took longer paths to their arrival at the top of the division. While both won WBO titles along the way, it was at a time when the WBO Heavyweight title still bore a certain lack of credibility. Names like Herbie Hide, Francesco Damiani, and Henry Akinwande never really screamed, “The Champ is here!” while Tyson, Holyfield, Bowe, and Lewis were on the scene.

At fourteen fights, Vitali Klitschko was fighting Marcus Rhode and Wladimir was fighting “Wimpy” Halstead. They were both more active than Joshua but neither was moved as quickly towards Lewis as Bowe, Lewis, or Ali were moved towards the top. At the two-year mark, they were (like Joshua) still making development steps.

Neither got towards the very top of the division until well into their careers. Wladimir’s problem was he kept getting stopped before he could find his groove. He’s been a steady exercise in cleaning out the division during his current reign, unbeaten since 2004.

Vitali, turned pro in November 1996 and deemed unattractive to US television for years after an injury corner stoppage against Chris Byrd in 2000, faced years of ordinary opposition until securing a mandatory with Lewis in June 2003. He didn’t win but the effort he gave made his then almost seven-year career. He would sit as the assumed king after Lewis’s retirement in many circles. Injuries shelved his chance to truly prove it but came back and had a dominant late career run as no less than second best to baby brother after a near-four year absence.

In other words, even if Joshua isn’t ready to challenge for the title by the first half of 2017, things can still work out just fine.
    
Here we are in 2017 and Joshua, by luck of having the IBF belt almost fall into his lap after Fury gave it up, already has a title in tow. He has been a pro since October 2013, approximately 3 years and eight months. The WBA has also sanctioned this for their ‘super,’ or top, strap. Of all the rises described above, Joshua’s might be closest to Tyson. “Iron” Mike went from Mitch Green and James Tillis to unifying the division. He was that ready, that early.

With roughly the same timing as Joshua (if not fights; Tyson had almost twice as many), Tyson squared off with the face of the previous generation. Tyson, just more than three years into his career, stopped a Larry Holmes coming off a pair of losses (one more fair than the other) to Michael Spinks. Holmes also was shaking off a nineteen-month layoff. However, Tyson didn’t just go straight from the bunch to the aging great. Tyson had run through a series of top ten contenders like Trevor Berbick, Pinklon Thomas, Tony Tucker, and Gold medalist Tyrell Biggs.

Joshua is facing Klitschko, who has had a seventeen-month layoff, off a win over Eric Molina. Could there be a critical gap in the learning curve being ignored by too many?

Team Joshua is betting that their man is ready enough early and more power to them. If they’re right, boxing has a megastar to lead the way into tomorrow. The reality of their audacity is hard to gauge beyond the eye test. It could be that the world is underestimating Klitschko one more time.

People wondering when the next cataclysm would come, when his chin would fail again after earlier losses to Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster, marked Klitschko’s reign. They waited a long time and yet he hasn’t been on the deck since 2005. He had rarely lost a round before Fury. He’s the best fighter Joshua has ever faced by leagues.

Joshua looks like he might be the most formidable physical foe of Klitschko’s long career but he’s never been past the seventh round.    

If Joshua falls short, it’s not the end of the world. He can learn from the early loss and go on to do wonderful things. Louis, Lewis, and Klitschko all showed that setbacks can be starting points. Hopes are higher than that.

Joshua is pushing his chips to the center of the table and daring to be great.

Ready or not, Joshua-Klitschko is here. 

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com