By Cliff Rold

It’s been almost eighteen years since Manny Pacquiao won his first world title. It’s been over a dozen since he defeated Marco Antonio Barrera to announce his potential for true greatness.

That’s all a long time ago.

Manny Pacquiao isn’t a raw, power-punching flyweight anymore. He’s not a lightning fast featherweight killer. He’s a 37-year old future hall of famer entering the ring off an alleged injury and defeat in the richest fight ever staged nearly a year ago.

Will that be enough for Timothy Bradley to finally beat him?

No matter what the record says, Bradley hasn’t really done that yet. He hasn’t come particularly close. Sure, he has an official win but to borrow from Rocky II, Bradley won without beating him. Relatively few agreed with the judges after their first fight in June 2012. Bradley was more competitive in their April 2014 rematch and still won no more than four rounds.

Fast forward and Bradley enters off solid performances against Jessie Vargas and Brandon Rios and with Teddy Atlas in his corner. Atlas is good at working the cameras. Is he enough of a factor to solve Pacquiao?        

pacquiao-bradley-weigh-in (5)   

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Manny Pacquiao ?

Age: 37

Current Titles: None

?Previous Titles: Lineal/WBC World Flyweight (1998-99, 1 Defense); IBF Super Bantamweight )2001-03, 4 Defenses); Lineal/Ring World Featherweight (2003-05, 2 Defenses); Lineal/Ring/WBC World Jr. Lightweight (2008); WBC Lightweight (2008-09); Lineal/Ring World Jr. Welterweight (2009-10); WBC Light Middleweight (2010); WBO Welterweight, (2009-12, 3 Defenses; 2014-15, 1 Defense)

?Height: 5’6 ½?

Weight: 145 ½ lbs.

Hails from: General Santos City, Cotabato del Sur, Philippines?

Record: 57-6-2, 38 KO, 3 KOBY

Rankings: #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, ESPN, BoxRec); #2 (Ring)?

Record in Major Title Fights: 18-3-2, 11 KO, 1 KOBY (including Lineal title Fights)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 20 (Chatchai Sasakul KO8; Medgoen Singsurat TKO3; Lehlo Ledwaba KO6; Agapito Sanchez Tech. Draw 6; Jorge Eliecer Julio TKO2; Marco Antonio Barrera TKO11, UD12; Juan Manuel Marquez D12, SD12, MD12, KO by 6; Erik Morales L12, TKO10, KO3; Oscar Larios UD12; David Diaz TKO9; Oscar De La Hoya RTD8; Ricky Hatton KO2; Miguel Cotto TKO12; Joshua Clottey UD12; Antonio Margarito UD12; Shane Mosley UD12; Timothy Bradley L12, UD12; Brandon Rios UD12; Chris Algieri UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12)??

Vs.

Timothy Bradley

Age: 32

Titles: None

Previous Titles: WBC Super Lightweight (2008-09, 2 Defenses; 2011); WBO Super Lightweight (2009-11, 4 Defenses); WBO Welterweight (2012-14, 2 Defenses); WBO Welterweight (2015-16, 1 Defense)

Height: 5’6  ?

Weight: 146 ½ lbs.

Hails from: Palm Springs, California??

Record: 33-1-1, 13 KO

Rankings: #2 (BoxingScene, TBRB, ESPN), #3 (BoxRec), #4 (Ring)

Record in Major Title Fights: 10-1, 2 KO, 1 No Contest (11-1, 2 KO, 1 No Contest including interim title fights)?

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 12 (Miguel Vazquez UD10; Junior Witter UD12; Kendall Holt UD12; Nate Campbell NC3; Lamont Peterson UD12; Devon Alexander TD10; Joel Casamayor TKO8; Manny Pacquiao SD12, L12; Ruslan Provodnikov UD12; Juan Manuel Marquez SD12; Jessie Vargas UD12; Brandon Rios TKO9)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Pacquiao A-; Bradley B+

Pre-Fight: Power – Pacquiao B+; Bradley B

Pre-Fight: Defense – Pacquiao B; Bradley B

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Pacquiao A; Bradley A

A quick historical note: while it isn’t universally going to be recognized, several outlets currently list Pacquiao and Bradley as the top two welterweights in the world. The winner of this fight, with no sanctioning body belt on the line, will have some claim to the legitimate welterweight championship in the wake of Mayweather’s retirement.

If that winner is Pacquiao, a lineal claim at welterweight would be a record fifth. It would be an argued accomplishment. There is a feeling among many that, even if one can rate these two at the top, they aren’t necessarily the best. It’s more a matter of other rising fighters not having fully hashed out their resumes yet. It would also be a bit hollow, the consolation prize for Pacquiao after losing sometimes passively to Mayweather.

It’s still worth noting because it also speaks to something odd about this fight: it’s still a very good match. Yes, it’s been seen twice already and neither was a classic. But compare the quality of the combatants to the carny show taking place next month (Alvarez-Khan) and it’s hard to understand the objective animus this fight should generate.

Mayweather-Pacquiao has had its hangovers as BoxingScene colleague Steve Kim has aptly pointed out. The subjective animus is real and understandable.

It doesn’t negate everything Pacquiao did for most of the last eighteen years and he has a chance to complete yet another rivalry here this weekend. Bradley is a quality rival. That Pacquiao is the only man to officially defeat him is impressive when you look at how many tough outs Bradley has taken on.

Bradley is a tenacious boxer with the ability to stick and move but the mentality to go into the trenches sometimes to his own detriment. It nearly cost him against Ruslan Provodnikov all night and late against Vargas. That he has been hurt and/or dropped several times and still never stopped speaks to the tremendous ring character Bradley displays.

In both Pacquiao fights, Bradley stayed in the mix by using that tenacity. When Manny was taking time off in the first fight, Bradley was throwing to the body. He keeps working no matter who he is fighting.

For those picking Bradley this weekend, it is his work rate that plays a big part. Coming off a layoff, while Bradley has stayed active, is an advantage to Bradley.

Pacquiao, assuming he can capture most of the form he had in 2014, still has lots of other advantages. His feet are quicker and better. He’s still landing from the southpaw side and he still has heavier hands. After going over six years without a knockout, its clear Pacquiao’s early devastation at welterweight wasn’t to be the norm with bigger men. He’s not that fighter anymore.

Does he have to be? He didn’t in the first two Bradley fights. Is he still hungry enough to really get up for this? It’s a fair question. Against Mayweather, we never saw the sort of go for broke effort to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat we once saw in the final round of his loss to Erik Morales. If he has to dig, how deep is the well at this point?

Will Atlas have a game plan to adjust to what Pacquiao has already shown he can do right against Bradley? It’s hard to say. As celebrated as he is, it’s hard to see where Atlas has really changed or improved Bradley yet. Rios showed up in poor shape for their fight ands Bradley would likely have won that fight with a different corner.

It’s not enough to be a fireman here. Bradley has to figure out how to be better than Manny Pacquiao.   

The Pick

Pacquiao hedging his bets about this being his last fight should assuage any concerns that he already has a foot out the door. He’s near the end but he’s not done yet. Before the second Bradley fight, Bradley became a popular pick in some corners. Pacquiao was stopped by Juan Manuel Marquez and Bradley beat him; that helped. Picks and odds don’t equal results and the results in two full fights strongly indicate there is a clear better man here.

If Pacquiao is done as an elite level fighter, Bradley can win. If Pacquiao is reasonably close to what he was just two years ago, nothing in their first two fights or Bradley’s fights since gives any reason to think we should see a dramatically different fight here. Bradley may try to box more but Manny has proven he can both outbox and jar him. When he does Bradley will have to fight back and Manny will have more opportunities.

Pacquiao ends this rivalry with a third win (second officially) in three tries. Then we’ll see how many more times one of this era’s genuine greats steps back into the ring.   

Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 11-5

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com