A Cold Hard Look At What Hearn Needs To Offer Wilder

[koolkc107]

First, let's look at what's on the table in each scenario.

Wilder vs Joshua April 13 at Wembley:

Projected PPV (British only): 2 million = 50 million gross (22.5 net)
Projected gate: 12.5 million (would be a record gate at Wembley for AJ fight)
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 15 million

Total to split: 50 million

Wilder vs Fury May 4 in Vegas:

Projected PPV (American only): 650K = 48.75 million gross (21.94 net)
Projected gate: 11 million
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 9 million

Total to split: 42 million

Notice I have record gates and ppv buys for the British fight, while the estimates for the American fight includes no Vegas site fee and are probably on the low side.

Here's where it gets interesting.

In a Wembley fight, if Hearns offers Wilder 40% (a number he maintains Wilder doesn't deserve) that means Deontay makes 20 million.

In a Vegas fight that Wilder splits 50/50 with Fury, he makes 21 million.

This is why, when Hearn and AJ maintain they have made an offer based on what they "feel" they should get versus what Wilder deserves, THEY ARE AUTOMATICALLY PRICING THEMSELVES OUT OF THE FIGHT.

Wilder actually accepted a lowball offer for 15 million this fall, but AJ chose to fight Povetkin instead. But some AJ fans claim he never took the offer in truth.

So, if that is the case, if Wilder wouldn't accept the lowball offer on principle earlier, why would he accept an offer of 40% or less now?

He has a very viable alternative now financially, and the unification will still be there in the fall when, should he beat Fury in the rematch, he will have even MORE leverage.

So, what does this mean?

This means that Hearn and AJ, if they sincerely want Wilder in Wembley in April, need to make an offer closer to 50/50.

Anything less, and they are asking Wilder to take less money than he would be able to make elsewhere. Now, to be fair, a chance to win AJ's belts may be worth taking less. But, again, if you are Wilder and you think you can beat Fury in a rematch, the Vegas date makes more sense next since the opportunity for AJ's belts will still be there later in the year.

[THEFRESHBRAWLER]

I don’t know why people don’t understand the financial difference between the UK and USA. It doesn’t matter if you can pack a building with 100k fans it’s all about the bottom line. A venue with 18K fans would still make more money than a fight in UK with 50k fans.
I also believe Fury Wilder made more money than Povetkin- Joshua

[NearHypnos]

First, let's look at what's on the table in each scenario.

Wilder vs Joshua April 13 at Wembley:

Projected PPV (British only): 2 million = 50 million gross (22.5 net)
Projected gate: 12.5 million (would be a record gate at Wembley for AJ fight)
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 15 million

Total to split: 50 million

Wilder vs Fury May 4 in Vegas:

Projected PPV (American only): 650K = 48.75 million gross (21.94 net)
Projected gate: 11 million
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 9 million

Total to split: 42 million

Notice I have record gates and ppv buys for the British fight, while the estimates for the American fight includes no Vegas site fee and are probably on the low side.

Here's where it gets interesting.

In a Wembley fight, if Hearns offers Wilder 40% (a number he maintains Wilder doesn't deserve) that means Deontay makes 20 million.

In a Vegas fight that Wilder splits 50/50 with Fury, he makes 21 million.

This is why, when Hearn and AJ maintain they have made an offer based on what they "feel" they should get versus what Wilder deserves, THEY ARE AUTOMATICALLY PRICING THEMSELVES OUT OF THE FIGHT.

Wilder actually accepted a lowball offer for 15 million this fall, but AJ chose to fight Povetkin instead. But some AJ fans claim he never took the offer in truth.

So, if that is the case, if Wilder wouldn't accept the lowball offer on principle earlier, why would he accept an offer of 40% or less now?

He has a very viable alternative now financially, and the unification will still be there in the fall when, should he beat Fury in the rematch, he will have even MORE leverage.

So, what does this mean?

This means that Hearn and AJ, if they sincerely want Wilder in Wembley in April, need to make an offer closer to 50/50.

Anything less, and they are asking Wilder to take less money than he would be able to make elsewhere. Now, to be fair, a chance to win AJ's belts may be worth taking less. But, again, if you are Wilder and you think you can beat Fury in a rematch, the Vegas date makes more sense next since the opportunity for AJ's belts will still be there later in the year.

There’s also to possibility that the fight only does around the same in the states (ppv buys) and he’s fighting a man most think he lost to and doesnt actually gain anything if he wins as it’s seen as 1-1.

When have we seen a ppv double in number i the US when it ended via (what some think) robbery?

100, 200k even would be being really optimistic but realistic. Double seems like a stretch (but if they do it, awesome).

Wilder doesnt just potentially make more money vs AJ, but more people will watch it. He also puts himself in rematch position with the bigger name and likely even more money then. Not only that, but win or lose he still has Fury.

Fighting AJ is basically two fights + Fury is still there if he loses.

Not just that..but losing to Fury means no AJ..likely ever.

Hell, fighting AJ and even in a loss gives him even more exposure in the UK and can maybe leverage Fury into two more fights..one in the UK and one final one in the states (or vice versa).


Wilder is kind of in a bad place right now in terms of potential consequences . Stuck between rematching a man who doesnt hold the belts, isnt the biggest draw, and “beat” him and thus risking a (iirc its whats been offered) guaranteed shot at AJ and the guaranteed rematch.

If I’m Wilder I go for AJ first. It’s two fights and he officially has a draw with Fury he can always fall back on.

[Sparked_26]

That fight would be such a damp squib in Vegas.

Would cheapen the fight.

I’d say adjust the start time even to suit yanks but Wembley is just too difficult to get home from

[R01]

This fight deserves to be in Vegas..British fans have always made it out there to support their fighters.

[W1LL]

Was expecting a goatse screenshot...

[rudy]

the figures are brillant one question which nobody has really asked why does Joshuaa not take less money if he so craves Wilder title. Really glad Wilder is not playing pool with this two bit promoters who think Managers are dumb.

Wilder hold out for for 21 millon or fight fury nuff said Hearns and Joshua are looking like whores now

[BigStomps]

First, let's look at what's on the table in each scenario.

Wilder vs Joshua April 13 at Wembley:

Projected PPV (British only): 2 million = 50 million gross (22.5 net)
Projected gate: 12.5 million (would be a record gate at Wembley for AJ fight)
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 15 million

Total to split: 50 million

Wilder vs Fury May 4 in Vegas:

Projected PPV (American only): 650K = 48.75 million gross (21.94 net)
Projected gate: 11 million
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 9 million

Total to split: 42 million

Notice I have record gates and ppv buys for the British fight, while the estimates for the American fight includes no Vegas site fee and are probably on the low side.

Here's where it gets interesting.

In a Wembley fight, if Hearns offers Wilder 40% (a number he maintains Wilder doesn't deserve) that means Deontay makes 20 million.

In a Vegas fight that Wilder splits 50/50 with Fury, he makes 21 million.

This is why, when Hearn and AJ maintain they have made an offer based on what they "feel" they should get versus what Wilder deserves, THEY ARE AUTOMATICALLY PRICING THEMSELVES OUT OF THE FIGHT.

Wilder actually accepted a lowball offer for 15 million this fall, but AJ chose to fight Povetkin instead. But some AJ fans claim he never took the offer in truth.

So, if that is the case, if Wilder wouldn't accept the lowball offer on principle earlier, why would he accept an offer of 40% or less now?

He has a very viable alternative now financially, and the unification will still be there in the fall when, should he beat Fury in the rematch, he will have even MORE leverage.

So, what does this mean?

This means that Hearn and AJ, if they sincerely want Wilder in Wembley in April, need to make an offer closer to 50/50.

Anything less, and they are asking Wilder to take less money than he would be able to make elsewhere. Now, to be fair, a chance to win AJ's belts may be worth taking less. But, again, if you are Wilder and you think you can beat Fury in a rematch, the Vegas date makes more sense next since the opportunity for AJ's belts will still be there later in the year.

Why did you put the May 4th date??
Canelo is fighting on that day in Vegas, he already has the T Mobile arena reserved for him..

[eco1]

a fried chicken?

[4truth]

I think it's too late now but if Hearn had simply made a reasonable offer in the beginning, like he made to Parker, this fight would have happened already.