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Will come down to how both guys look in their next fights, tbh.
Alvarez is a budding star in his own right (that ship has passed with Golovkin, imo), but heavyweight boxing is an entirely different animal.
Let's get the obvious out of the way; Alvarez-Golovkin 2 will do less business than Alvarez-Golovkin, full stop. The first fight was good, but for all of the wrong reasons (Golovkin was less than what he was supposed to be, Alvarez showed craft and his limitations, and there wasn't this massive clamor from fans to see it again, regardless of the money to be made in a rematch).
How much less will be based on Alvarez's starpower, but I doubt that the rematch does 1m PPVs.
Now, the unification of the heavyweight title, regardless of who's in the fight, is a big deal (there hasn't been a undisputed heavyweight champion in 15 years) and will draw attention; you add that the fight would be between two charismatic heavyweight champions who flatten their opponents, both can hit the full press circuit in English (to let anyone and everyone know), both have great good-guy stories behind them, and the network backing such a fight will invest the money needed to market it (on top of the earned media) and you're looking at something special.
You add that there's literally nothing to compete with it for folks' attention through the summer (I think the last week of August is emerging as a strong PPV date to draw fans) outside of the NBA playoffs (which are done by June), and "not knowing" them isn't as much an issue as you think.
Wilder flattens Ortiz in 6 in March (Ortiz isn't a bum, but the rounds give the audience a chance to grow before Wilder stops him in GiF-worthy fashion), Joshua stops Parker 8-10 in April, Joshua and Wilder face off in the ring (no doubt in my mind that initial talks have already, but they'd basically have a month to hammer out the final deal points), fight gets announced at the end of May, with the tour in early June, and the fight at the end of August.Comment
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Wouldn't take the bet straight up, but it's likely to end up being closer than you think (especially with 6 months of boxing already booked out, to hype fight fans for the March and April fights, to keep the hype through the announcement, , and likely a slate of fights booked to carry the summer an pair with the All Access efforts for the fight (three episodes and and epilogue would work pretty well).Comment
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Like I said before punch stats don't judge a fight. They call a cross hook uppercut as a power punch. It's an easy way to keep track of the punches. It disconnected from reality on the effectiveness of those punches. The judges don't use this definition of a power punch to determine how a fight is scored. They look at the effect of the punches to determine if they are meaningful. You guys are looking at punch stats which is not used in scoring a fight. Punch stats omit all kinds of information about what happened in the ring. Judges score fights not CompuBox. It's amazing that I have to explain that to you..Comment
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That has far more to do with Canelo's body makeup, and you know that.
Canelo's last real hangup, at this point, is effectively finding his rest, particular in finding that breather without giving up a round.
Jean Pascal likely made the move too late, but Roy Jones Jr, after a few camps together, was able to help Pascal get comfortable taking his rest without looking like he's taking a rest; Pascal's last fight showed a ton of that (good movement, don't take any shots clean, bait the offense when on defense, etc).
Alvarez isn't James Toney, but Toney would be a perfect guy to go and pick things from, particularly 190-195lb James Toney (basically where he was fight fit, without any weight cut).
Take the edge off of shots with good angles, let stray shots bounce off the shoulders/arms, move the head, and fire on the counter; get those basics down and Alvarez can fight his fight for 3-4 rounds, use the tools to still compete while the muscles recover, and then fight his fight down the back 6.Comment
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