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I'm going to play devil's advocate.
The skill sets will be far apart and we have to question his ability to cope with elite level boxing as well as his stamina and pacing for a 12 round fight. That may well be enough to render the fight a circus act that plays out as expected by cynics in all honesty. I would like to suggest a way in which this may not be true.
Here is what I am looking at that may make the fight more interesting than expected.
Face to face, Conor is noticeably bigger. His shoulders are wider, his head is bigger, his arms are longer, his fists are bigger. He is a bigger man. Regardless of skill, this benefits his ability to absorb and dish out punishment, and provides him with the tactical advantages of strength and being able to engage at a longer range. Reach is absolutely one of the most underrated elements in boxing, especially regarding counter punchers and power punchers.
He has knockout power. Naturally, punching with 4oz MMA gloves is different from what he'll be wearing against Floyd, but I think most people can agree that he is expected to be carrying KO power as a boxer based on his MMA results as well as testimony from sparring partners.
Floyd is 40. Now obviously he has taken great care of himself and maintains unquestionable discipline and craft. We have not seen a marked decrease in his physical capacities, although some have argued that his movement/legs are not what they used to be. Given Conor's power (and perhaps ability to deliver it thanks to his reach and speed), a momentary lapse or slow reaction could prove dangerous. Furthermore, while Floyd beat Pac only 2 years ago, Pac himself was arguably past his prime and a much smaller man (not to mention the fact that he fought scared and it was a very unconvincing performance). Outside of that victory, he has not beaten an elite fighter since Alvarez 4 years prior. A great victory, but the difference between 36 and 40 is a question that may need to be answered.
Conor's confidence, mental strength, and charisma. He is going into the fight knowing he can kill Floyd, and believing in his ability with supreme confidence. Obviously, that cannot overcome a massive skill deficit on its own, but accompanied with his physical advantages and knockout power, it will certainly make him dangerous early. It will be up to Floyd to break that confidence (which he is adept at). Nevertheless, I think Conor's mental strength and confidence can prove to be a factor. Floyd is able to dominate almost all of his opponents mentally, but I don't see it with Conor.
He will be unorthodox. Floyd excels at beating fighters who fight his game. He knows what to expect and can take advantage particularly of traditional fighters. He knows the movements and the programming of disciplined boxers like JMM and Canelo, and he uses that predictability against them. Conor is a southpaw who has a proficient striking style developed somewhat outside of Floyd's field. He will be looking for counters from different angles (aided by his size advantage and younger reflexes), not futilely attempting to set up tired, predictable combos against a faster opponent. In some ways, his inexperience and unorthodox craft may throw off a finely tuned boxing master like Floyd.
Now I think the safe bet is that Conor's skill set will be made to look somewhat amateurish, and I have big questions about his conditioning and preparedness to go 12. However, he will be going into the ring with some advantages. A marked physical size advantage, absolute confidence, knockout power, and an unorthodox style.
I think if he maintains a focused, counter-punching style, he will be able to avoid falling into traps that exploit the difference in skill and more aptly take advantage of the assets he will bring to the fight. I think with a focused, responsible counter-punching approach, he can make a strong contest and outpace most people's expectations. Should he chase Floyd, sell out his reach and size, lose focus, and get desperate (as many Floyd opponents do), then he will ultimately be picked apart and embarrassed by Floyd's superior craft.
The skill sets will be far apart and we have to question his ability to cope with elite level boxing as well as his stamina and pacing for a 12 round fight. That may well be enough to render the fight a circus act that plays out as expected by cynics in all honesty. I would like to suggest a way in which this may not be true.
Here is what I am looking at that may make the fight more interesting than expected.
Face to face, Conor is noticeably bigger. His shoulders are wider, his head is bigger, his arms are longer, his fists are bigger. He is a bigger man. Regardless of skill, this benefits his ability to absorb and dish out punishment, and provides him with the tactical advantages of strength and being able to engage at a longer range. Reach is absolutely one of the most underrated elements in boxing, especially regarding counter punchers and power punchers.
He has knockout power. Naturally, punching with 4oz MMA gloves is different from what he'll be wearing against Floyd, but I think most people can agree that he is expected to be carrying KO power as a boxer based on his MMA results as well as testimony from sparring partners.
Floyd is 40. Now obviously he has taken great care of himself and maintains unquestionable discipline and craft. We have not seen a marked decrease in his physical capacities, although some have argued that his movement/legs are not what they used to be. Given Conor's power (and perhaps ability to deliver it thanks to his reach and speed), a momentary lapse or slow reaction could prove dangerous. Furthermore, while Floyd beat Pac only 2 years ago, Pac himself was arguably past his prime and a much smaller man (not to mention the fact that he fought scared and it was a very unconvincing performance). Outside of that victory, he has not beaten an elite fighter since Alvarez 4 years prior. A great victory, but the difference between 36 and 40 is a question that may need to be answered.
Conor's confidence, mental strength, and charisma. He is going into the fight knowing he can kill Floyd, and believing in his ability with supreme confidence. Obviously, that cannot overcome a massive skill deficit on its own, but accompanied with his physical advantages and knockout power, it will certainly make him dangerous early. It will be up to Floyd to break that confidence (which he is adept at). Nevertheless, I think Conor's mental strength and confidence can prove to be a factor. Floyd is able to dominate almost all of his opponents mentally, but I don't see it with Conor.
He will be unorthodox. Floyd excels at beating fighters who fight his game. He knows what to expect and can take advantage particularly of traditional fighters. He knows the movements and the programming of disciplined boxers like JMM and Canelo, and he uses that predictability against them. Conor is a southpaw who has a proficient striking style developed somewhat outside of Floyd's field. He will be looking for counters from different angles (aided by his size advantage and younger reflexes), not futilely attempting to set up tired, predictable combos against a faster opponent. In some ways, his inexperience and unorthodox craft may throw off a finely tuned boxing master like Floyd.
Now I think the safe bet is that Conor's skill set will be made to look somewhat amateurish, and I have big questions about his conditioning and preparedness to go 12. However, he will be going into the ring with some advantages. A marked physical size advantage, absolute confidence, knockout power, and an unorthodox style.
I think if he maintains a focused, counter-punching style, he will be able to avoid falling into traps that exploit the difference in skill and more aptly take advantage of the assets he will bring to the fight. I think with a focused, responsible counter-punching approach, he can make a strong contest and outpace most people's expectations. Should he chase Floyd, sell out his reach and size, lose focus, and get desperate (as many Floyd opponents do), then he will ultimately be picked apart and embarrassed by Floyd's superior craft.
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