Canelo VS Golovkin - Detailed Analysis & Prediction

[Scary]

This fight will come down to two things.

Can Canelo hit Lil g hard enough to get his respect?

Can Canelo either take Lil g's shots or avoid them?

If the answer is yes to both, then Canelo outpoints him easily or stops him late.

If the answer is no to either of those, Lil g stops him.

Kinda boring, but pretty much true. Except I don't believe that it will be easy for anyone in there. And ofcourse there's a lot more to this fight. Who will have the higher connect rate, who will dictate the pace and who has the bigger will, when pressured.

[Dr Rumack]

I'm leaning towards Canelo at this point. Not something I would have expected.

Number 1 reason I like his chances is having watched Golovkin freeze up when his opponent stepped into the pocket and flurried in several fights now. Golovkin was too slow, mentally and physically, to counter Jacobs when Jacobs stepped in and let his hands go. At range Golovkin is still great, in the pocket he's really vulnerable.

Canelo is vastly superior counterpuncher and combination puncher to anyone Golovkin has faced. He's fast, he's sharp, and he's fluid. I can see him putting 4 and 5 punch combinations on Golovkin with nothing coming back. Do that a few times in the early rounds and all he momentum will be with him.

Golovkin's jab is his most important asset by far. That's what makes me think he could still win. Canelo has a short, sharp jab, but it's not that impressive from range. If Golovkin can get his jab going then it gets a lot more difficult for Canelo to get his timing and distance right.

If Golovkin can really dominate with the jab then Canelo's feet and gas tank become major issues. And while I still see him countering Golovkin well off the ropes, he's going to take more hard shots than he's ever taken.

But in general I think Canelo looks like the prime fighter now. And while I question his legs, I also question Golovkin's ability to show urgency and apply pressure as he needs to if he is going to win. Danny Jacobs is no Lara and yet Golovkin found it difficult to corner him and score. Canelo's no mover but he is probably mobile enough to be elusive for the Golovkin we've seen lately.

[j0zef]

I'm leaning towards Canelo at this point. Not something I would have expected.

Number 1 reason I like his chances is having watched Golovkin freeze up when his opponent stepped into the pocket and flurried in several fights now. Golovkin was too slow, mentally and physically, to counter Jacobs when Jacobs stepped in and let his hands go. At range Golovkin is still great, in the pocket he's really vulnerable.

Canelo is vastly superior counterpuncher and combination puncher to anyone Golovkin has faced. He's fast, he's sharp, and he's fluid. I can see him putting 4 and 5 punch combinations on Golovkin with nothing coming back. Do that a few times in the early rounds and all he momentum will be with him.

Golovkin's jab is his most important asset by far. That's what makes me think he could still win. Canelo has a short, sharp jab, but it's not that impressive from range. If Golovkin can get his jab going then it gets a lot more difficult for Canelo to get his timing and distance right.

If Golovkin can really dominate with the jab then Canelo's feet and gas tank become major issues. And while I still see him countering Golovkin well off the ropes, he's going to take more hard shots than he's ever taken.

But in general I think Canelo looks like the prime fighter now. And while I question his legs, I also question Golovkin's ability to show urgency and apply pressure as he needs to if he is going to win. Danny Jacobs is no Lara and yet Golovkin found it difficult to corner him and score. Canelo's no mover but he is probably mobile enough to be elusive for the Golovkin we've seen lately.

Good analysis, and a very respectable prediction. One thing I disagree with is your tie in of Lara-Canelo and Golovkin-Jacobs. I think those 2 fights have absolutely no impact on Canelo-Golovkin. Lara is feather fisted mover who was fighting an unpolished, defense first counter puncher in Canelo. He almost potshotted his way to victory because Canelo had a difficult time dictating the offense. Jacobs was the bigger, stronger puncher with a reach advantage whose best moments came when he saw an opening and unloaded a combo on Golovkin.

These 4 guys have very little in common when it came to their fights, and nothing they showed should have inluence on the Canelo-Golovkin fight. My $0.02

[j.razor]

You dont know **** about boxing if you think GGG is just coming forward. He has great footwork and headmovement , he has a pressure style and mostly just slips shots while coming forward or occasionally backs up to avoid shots. Dude also cuts the ring off like no one else in the sport. All of that takes skill.

No YOU don't know s**t bout boxing. I've been in that ring homie....and all you need to beat this slow flat-footed bum fighting pro is a jab.

[-Kev-]

Back when Canelo critics were predicting GGG will KO Canelo.

Now they all have amnesia. “I NEVER said that!”