Canelo VS Golovkin - Detailed Analysis & Prediction

[Madison Boxing]

good breakdown, agree with most of that.

[cork]

POWER: Golovkin is definitely the harder puncher. He has thudding power that hurts every time he hits you. I believe Canelo has more "One Punch" KO power and is more explosive, but GGG has the type of power that when he hits you, you freeze and your whole game plan goes out the window. He has a better KO ratio & he has stopped/dropped much bigger guys than Canelo. [Advantage: Golovkin]

SPEED: This is an easy one. Canelo has the faster hands and can throw very explosive/quick combinations. [ADVANTAGE: Canelo]


TECHNIQUE: Canelo has very good boxing skills but I would say GGG is the superior boxing technician. He has the best jab in boxing & also a great amateur background. He has seen all types of styles. [ADVANTAGE: GGG]


EXPERIENCE: Canelo has the better resume without a doubt but he has only had 1 fight above 160 pounds. He has never dominated top opposition (in their prime) but only won a close decision. So we need to keep this in mind. GGG has been fighting at middleweight his whole career & he has stopped much bigger men who were in their prime. He also has more than 300 amateur fights and is an Olympic medallist. This is a close one to call but I'll lean towards Canelo because of his resume. [ADVANTAGE: CANELO]

CHIN: GGG hands down. He has never been dropped or visibly hurt or in trouble. His chin has been tested & it has held up. Canelo has never been visibly hurt but then again we have never really see him hit with a good punch by a power puncher. [ADVANTAGE: GOLOVKIN]

FIGHT PREDICTION: I think this will be a great fight in which GGG wins by late TKO stoppage. Canelo has faced skilled boxers but never anyone who was skilled, bigger and has more or just as much power than him. I see GGG controlling him with the jab & landing brutal power punches to force a stoppage via accumulation of damage. I do think Canelo will land on GGG and possibly hurt him but the fire power will be coming back from Golovkin and that is when he is more dangerous.

I'd like to get your thoughts and opinions and perhaps a comparison in other areas like movement, inside/outside game, defense, etc.

Agree with most of it. I have ggg by corner stoppage late rounds. Canelo isn't a big enough puncher nor he have good enough defense to avoid ggg for 12 rounds. Feel like he's going to back himself to the ropes and gay severely punish for it.

Styles all wrong for Canelo.

[koolkc107]

You're absolutely right. It really is that simple.

It really is.

Lil g isn't going to outbox Canelo.

The jab that worked so well against Jacobs is going to get slipped (or blocked) and countered much more often than what Danny did.

Canelo isn't going to hunt down Lil g (at least not early in the fight if ever in the fight).

Saul's best bet is to box and take Lil g into deep water while constantly inflicting damage.

Hence, those two factors are what swings the fight.

[TonyGe]

I noticed when G talked about Danny Jacobs being his toughest opponent prior to their fight he said yes and was sincere. When he was asked the same thing about Canelo he said yes but it seemed like was just playing along.
Anyway I can't picture a scenario where Canelo wins. Canelo doesn't have the firepower to keep G off him. I know he has the faster hands and nice combos. The problem is the same one Danny Jacobs had once you get hit by Golovkin your game plan goes out the window. Don't get me wrong Danny did well but to me he couldn't really get on track with his attack because of the incoming. The same thing is going to happen with Canelo. The quick combinations will get fewer and farther between. I think G knocks him out around the 7th round. One thing I would like to see G improve is his infighting. Maybe Canelo could try to smother G and beat him inside but that's not his style.

[Eff Pandas]

Wouldn't disagree with any of your breakdown categories.

I think you left Defense out though & I'd be curious of you're defensive breakdown.

I contend defense will be the most important category with how I suspect this fight to go down. I think Canelo is mad underrated with his unhittability by most fans & pundits. And I think GGG is just eating punches as snacks way more often then he should be.

That defense, speed & Canelo's own respectable boxing IQ will make GGG miss & get countered harshly far too often to win this fight in my eyes. I think its plausible GGG could be strong enough a puncher & Canelo could have soft enough of a chin that should those two met GGG could stop Canelo, but I don't think its all THAT likely to happen. I think its much more likely that Canelo wins a action packed 12 round decision or might get a late stoppage if he starts getting to GGG early enough in the fight to wear him down later.

[HarvardBlue]

Wouldn't disagree with any of your breakdown categories.

I think you left Defense out though & I'd be curious of you're defensive breakdown.

I contend defense will be the most important category with how I suspect this fight to go down. I think Canelo is mad underrated with his unhittability by most fans & pundits. And I think GGG is just eating punches as snacks way more often then he should be.

That defense, speed & Canelo's own respectable boxing IQ will make GGG miss & get countered harshly far too often to win this fight in my eyes. I think its plausible GGG could be strong enough a puncher & Canelo could have soft enough of a chin that should those two met GGG could stop Canelo, but I don't think its all THAT likely to happen. I think its much more likely that Canelo wins a action packed 12 round decision or might get a late stoppage if he starts getting to GGG early enough in the fight to wear him down later.

I agree to a certain extent about Canelo's defense and his counters. The only thing is Golovkin's pressure is far better than any other fighter Canelo faced. Even if Canelo makes Golovkin miss, if his counters aren't enough to disrupt the onslaught I don't know how long he go without breaking down. Canelo has to make Golovkin respect his power more so than his boxing ability.

This is a good match up and there's no absolute certainty on who is going to win.

[Eff Pandas]

I agree to a certain extent about Canelo's defense and his counters. The only thing is Golovkin's pressure is far better than any other fighter Canelo faced. Even if Canelo makes Golovkin miss, if his counters aren't enough to disrupt the onslaught I don't know how long he go without breaking down. Canelo has to make Golovkin respect his power more so than his boxing ability.

This is a good match up and there's no absolute certainty on who is going to win.

I don't think we'll see THAT Golovkin vs Canelo. I think we see the careful & jab-friendly guy that fought Lemieux is part of it too.

If he fights Canelo like he did Brook I think Canelo still makes him miss & makes him pay more then GGG makes Canelo pay.

One could argue Brook did or did that for a small period of time vs GGG himself & Brook can't punch for sh^t vs the better opponents in my eyes so had zero to keep GGG honest & I think GGG said as much later. Canelo can keep GGG honest with his power. Then GGG will go into a softer version of himself like he did vs Monroe at times & laying off the pressure cuz he can't do that all night while eating punches even Monroe or Brook caliber punches. And while I don't think Canelo is some big puncher either I definitely think he slangs it harder than Monroe & Brook & can keep GGG more honest then those guys could. Or I guess kinda like how Jacobs kept him more honest while Jacobs & Canelo having lil in common style & strategy-wise.

[Shinkyokushin92]

What the hell makes you guys think Canelo will stop GGG?

GGG has never been hurt against bigger opponents. Not even close.

Canelo couldn't even stop Chavez or the smaller Cotto. Don't forget other top fighters like Trout & Lara who went the distance and arguably beat him.

So why it is that all of a sudden GGG will get stopped?

[RussB23]

You gave technique to golovkin? just cuz of a jab? what about hooks, body shots, upper-cuts, combinations, or defense? You off your rocker...the boy has 1 style and called forward. Canelo wins by decision especially if it's close. The ONLY way lil g wins is by K.O. not T.K.O.

You dont know **** about boxing if you think GGG is just coming forward. He has great footwork and headmovement , he has a pressure style and mostly just slips shots while coming forward or occasionally backs up to avoid shots. Dude also cuts the ring off like no one else in the sport. All of that takes skill.

[RussB23]

If jacobs couldnt hurt GGG , there is no way canelo will.