Why do people think Cotto would beat Martinez?

[Ratchet]

Sergio has never fought a fighter with the ring IQ of Miguel Cotto. Not even close. It's different when your tactics are matched and one upped through out a fight. Cotto beats him.

My biggest question is "how" does Cotto win? I mean, I get that you think Cotto would win, but break down HOW he would win.

[puga]

Yeah, that seems to be the consensus online. Personally, I think Sergio had an off night against Murray. He doesn't look as spectacular against defensive fighters as he does against overly-aggressive fighters. But, against fighters that want to pressure him, Sergio looks amazing.

what he had an off night vs barker too , or macklin?.. defensive ?.. murray just used the high guard and landed at will...dont even say presssure fighters coz he lost to margs..i know he was young then but so was margs...

[El Angel]

My biggest question is "how" does Cotto win? I mean, I get that you think Cotto would win, but break down HOW he would win.

Sergio's hands down and constant movement style works very well against pressure fighters who have no clue how to cut off the ring, ie. Chavez Jr. But when he's trapped in corners and on the ropes, like in the Murray fight, he can be touched and frequently. Cotto cuts off the ring better than anyone in game, only one close is GGG. He needs to work his jab and attack Maravilla's body early and often, but that's not impossible for him to do. Most important, is that Freddie get him in shape and condition for the highest weight of his career. He'll need to be moving often to get to Sergio and he needs to be prepared for that.

[Exciterx30]

I think Cotto is a better boxer, in the traditional sense, than Martínez. Cotto has solid skills and fundamentals, while Sergio relies more on reflexes and athleticism. Sergio is this generation's Roy and that style does not work for a long career.

This is an intriguing, even fight right now. I could see Cotto landing the jab at an alarming rate and, possibly, getting a win on points but I could also see a Sergio moving or knocking Cotto out with one shot. Sergio has slowed down enough to make this fight as even as it could ever be.

[Ratchet]

what he had an off night vs barker too , or macklin?.. defensive ?.. murray just used the high guard and landed at will...dont even say presssure fighters coz he lost to margs..i know he was young then but so was margs...

Yes but Margarito learned his style much earlier on than Sergio. I think a rematch at middleweight or even 154 would leave Margarito damaged....but he's retired now so it's not much to debate. And yes. Nobody expected Macklin to come into the fight boxing off the back foot. If he fought the same fight he did against Sturm, he would've gotten KO'ed earlier. And Barker had a nice gameplan. Still got knocked out but he had a good gameplan to make the fight last longer.

[Ratchet]

I think Cotto is a better boxer, in the traditional sense, than Martínez. Cotto has solid skills and fundamentals, while Sergio relies more on reflexes and athleticism. Sergio is this generation's Roy and that style does not work for a long career.

This is an intriguing, even fight right now. I could see Cotto landing the jab at an alarming rate and, possibly, getting a win on points but I could also see a Sergio moving or knocking Cotto out with one shot. Sergio has slowed down enough to make this fight as even as it could ever be.

Nice breakdown. I disagree on the "better boxer" part. I don't see the jab landing with consistency. I think Maravilla will eventually time it and start to land hard right hooks on the top of Cotto's jab. Then, Cotto will try to outbox Sergio and he'll learn very quickly that it's hard to outbox someone who has all the physical advantages over you. He'll also be at the end of Martinez's Left straight. I see Cotto getting KO'd in a valiant effort but comes up short.

[FrankieClutch]

I think this is a 50-50 fight. If Martinez can turn back the clock (pre-Chavez 12th round) then I would favor him to win, but he hasn't looked great since that 12th round and I believe that's why many think Cotto can win.

[puga]

Yes but Margarito learned his style much earlier on than Sergio. I think a rematch at middleweight or even 154 would leave Margarito damaged....but he's retired now so it's not much to debate. And yes. Nobody expected Macklin to come into the fight boxing off the back foot. If he fought the same fight he did against Sturm, he would've gotten KO'ed earlier. And Barker had a nice gameplan. Still got knocked out but he had a good gameplan to make the fight last longer.

so margo a better at adapting than sergio?...lol..i think margo is just a bad style match up for sergio period ...with margs' easily broken orbital bone now martinez might win by technicality, but with segio's knee issues , it might be a pick em fight...

nobody cares about excuses esp for a 3 off nights....thats **** just wont fly.

[Ratchet]

Sergio's hands down and constant movement style works very well against pressure fighters who have no clue how to cut off the ring, ie. Chavez Jr. But when he's trapped in corners and on the ropes, like in the Murray fight, he can be touched and frequently. Cotto cuts off the ring better than anyone in game, only one close is GGG. He needs to work his jab and attack Maravilla's body early and often, but that's not impossible for him to do. Most important, is that Freddie get him in shape and condition for the highest weight of his career. He'll need to be moving often to get to Sergio and he needs to be prepared for that.

Again, nice breakdown. My thoughts, though, is that no one ever consistently hits Sergio to the body and no one ever pins him up against the ropes. With his longer reach and stronger power at the higher weights, I see Sergio able to wither the early storm and being able to stop Cotto in the middle rounds.

[Exciterx30]

Nice breakdown. I disagree on the "better boxer" part. I don't see the jab landing with consistency. I think Maravilla will eventually time it and start to land hard right hooks on the top of Cotto's jab. Then, Cotto will try to outbox Sergio and he'll learn very quickly that it's hard to outbox someone who has all the physical advantages over you. He'll also be at the end of Martinez's Left straight. I see Cotto getting KO'd in a valiant effort but comes up short.

I agree with most of this if we were talking prime Sergio circa 2009-2010. That is not the case now and that's why this fight is more competitive and intriguing in 2014. Sergio would be 38 and coming off a long layoff and knee surgery. Those factors could make a difference at this point.