Can't believe the near unanimous pick of Kovalev. Don't get me wrong, he's awesome, but we haven't seen enough to make him the favourite over Cleverly. Kovalev has a great all-round technical game, surgical mind-frame and knockout power, but we really don't know what he'll be like against better competition. Beating Campillo put him on the map, but it doesn't make him the next big star.
I'm going to put it out there that Nathan Cleverly is an extremely tough fight for anyone at 175 - very fast hands, very high work-rate, excellent chin, good combination puncher and an aggressive mindset. Against a fighter like Kovalev, maybe his aggressive mindset and occasional disregard for defence will count against him, but it's a basic fact of boxing that it's hard to win a decision against a fighter that throws close to 100 punches a round. It wears a fighter down having to defend and try to match a fighter with that kind of output. Even if Kovalev can land the cleaner, more eye-catching punches, the judges will often go for the guy who lands more, even if his shots don't mean as much.
I think Kovalev would need a knockout to beat Cleverly and while Kovalev has excellent power, Cleverly has shown an excellent chin as well. Could happen, but far from a certainty and with the likelihood that Cleverly would win a decision (as far as I'm concerned), I'd have to make Cleverly the favourite.
I'm going to put it out there that Nathan Cleverly is an extremely tough fight for anyone at 175 - very fast hands, very high work-rate, excellent chin, good combination puncher and an aggressive mindset. Against a fighter like Kovalev, maybe his aggressive mindset and occasional disregard for defence will count against him, but it's a basic fact of boxing that it's hard to win a decision against a fighter that throws close to 100 punches a round. It wears a fighter down having to defend and try to match a fighter with that kind of output. Even if Kovalev can land the cleaner, more eye-catching punches, the judges will often go for the guy who lands more, even if his shots don't mean as much.
I think Kovalev would need a knockout to beat Cleverly and while Kovalev has excellent power, Cleverly has shown an excellent chin as well. Could happen, but far from a certainty and with the likelihood that Cleverly would win a decision (as far as I'm concerned), I'd have to make Cleverly the favourite.
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