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The point I'm making is that you can't really judge him off a standard nobody else is reaching either. He was hitting 1.6 million on HBO which is pretty good and there's every reason to believe he can be the next big thing. Certainly he and Broner are the frontrunners right now.
Here's a good analysis that was posted on Reddit of the likelihood of various fighters being the next major breakout star.
Google Trends
Next, I decided to look at Google Trends to see what else might be going on. According to Google, interest is as follows:
Name Average Volume
Canelo Alvarez 10
Nonito Donaire 5
Andre Ward 3
Adrien Broner 3
Robert Guerrero 2
Now for peak volume:
Name Peak Volume Date
Canelo Alvarez 100 September 2012
Nonito Donaire 56 December 2012
Andre Ward 39 September 2012
Adrien Broner 29 July 2012
Robert Guerrero 16 July 2012
To summarize Google Trends, Canelo has far more volume than anyone else, with twice as much volume as Nonito Donaire, his closest competitor. Ward and Broner have identical volumes, but Ward’s volume is due to a larger peak date than Broner’s. As for Guerrero, why did July find more volume than November?
To answer this question, we need to look at each fighter’s regional interest.
Canelo Alvarez - Regional Interest
1. Mexico - 100
2. United States - 30
3. Argentina - 11
4. Spain - 4
5. United Kingsom - 3
As we can see here, Alvarez’ appeal in Mexico far outweighs his appeal in the United States — although there is genuine crossover interest in the United States as well.
Nonito Donaire - Regional Interest
1. Philippines - 100
2. Mexico - 19
3. Saudi Arabia - 6
4. Spain - 5
5. United States - 5
Popularity in the Philippines is expected. After all, Donaire is Filipino so that’s where the bulk of his fanbase would be. But why Saudi Arabia? The answer is that Saudi Arabia has a sizable amount of Filipino migrant workers.
The other surprising point of interest here is that Mexico has far more interest in Donaire than the United States. I suspect that this has to do with Donaire’s wins over Fernando Montiel and Jorge Arce — both fighters who are hugely popular in Mexico. In addition, the United States rarely has interest in fighters below 135lbs.
Andre Ward - Regional Interest
1. United Kingdom - 100
2. Romania - 97
3. United States - 77
4. Canada - 48
Amusingly, Ward has far more regional interest in Europe than the United States. Why is this?
For the United Kingdom, it has to do with Carl Froch — a rival to Andre Ward who has grown in popularity. Ward-Froch was the final fight in the Super Six tournament. Indeed, Froch’s P4P status amongst many is due to how well he did against Ward (though he lost).
As for interest in Romania and Canada, this is due to Lucian Bute, a Romanian super middleweight who fights out of Montreal. It was once thought that Bute would fight Ward, but this hope was dashed after his decimation by Froch.
Ward did not have much appeal in the United States, but after his domination of lineal light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson, this might change soon.
Adrien Broner - Regional Interest
1. United States - 100
2. United Kingdom - 75
3. Canada - 35
Surprisingly, Broner is not really popular outside the anglosphere. It’s obvious why so many Americans and Canadians like Broner: he reminds them of Floyd Mayweather Jr.
But why the interest in the United Kingdom? The answer is that there’s been much hype of an eventual showdown against Scotsman Ricky Burns who’s often considered Broner’s equal in the lightweight division.
Robert Guerrero - Regional Interest
1. Turkey - 100
2. Mexico - 55
3. United States - 54
4. United Kingdom - 34
The reason for Turkey’s high interest is simple. In July 2012, he fought Selcuk Aydin — who is Turkey’s biggest boxing draw.
As for Mexico, I’m assuming it’s due to Guerrero’s Mexican-American background. But I’m not entirely sure.
Social Media
I’m now going to cast my eye towards three social media sources: Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube.
Twitter is particularly useful because much of the data is public, and I’m able to use 3rd party tools to better assess what’s going on. First, I’m going to look at the most simple metric of all: follower count.
Name Follower Count
Guerrero 162,690
Canelo 161,799
Ward 152,252
Donaire 84,924
Broner 67,777
Right here, it looks like Guerrero is the most popular fighter on Twitter, followed by Canelo. However, it is easy to monkey around with Twitter follower counts. If you have the money, you can buy them.
Follower count should therefore be balanced with keyword comparison as well as mentions count. Here’s the drilldown of each fighter by keyword and mentions during the past few weeks.
Keyword Hits
“nonito donaire” 33% (1,657)
“adrien broner” 25.2% (1,262)
“robert guerrero” 23.6% (1,185)
“canelo alvarez” 12.3% (618)
“andre ward” 5.9% (294)
Twitter Handle Mentions
@filipinoflash 33.3% (2,098)
@adrienbroner 25.5% (1,609)
@canelooficial 18.1% (1,137)
@ghostboxing 12.1% (764)
@andreward 11% (691)
(If you’re curious why I only have data for the past few weeks, it’s due to Twitter only caching their data for a two week period. To gauge interest for longer, I would have to use some archiving tools — which are not retroactive.)
What’s interesting here is that though Donaire and Broner have far less followers than Guerrero, Canelo, and Ward, they have far more keyword and mentions counts. In fact, for both Donaire and Broner, the numbers are consistent: 33% and 25% of keyword hits and Twitter handle mentions.
The next thing to look at is Facebook Page likes. I like to compare Facebook to Twitter due to the userbase of Facebook being more casual than Twitter’s. Fans on Facebook are different from fans on Twitter.
Name Facebook Likes
Canelo 310,105
Donaire 154,736
Ward 24,403
Broner 5,067
Guerrero 4,754
As you can see, Canelo and Donaire have far more Facebook fans than Twitter followers. Ward, Broner, and Guerrero’s likes are far lower than their Twitter follower count.
It’s easy to see why Broner has a lower follower count on Facebook. He’s more active on Twitter, and he heavily encourages his fans to follow him there. His Facebook Page, meanwhile, is a ghost town.
Finally, let’s take a look at YouTube. The great thing about YouTube is that most of the content is user-generated. Moreover, since boxing is a very visual experience, one of the most visual social media sites should therefore be assessed.
YouTube - Keyword - # of Results - View Count of Most Popular Video
“nonito donaire” 6,550- 1,149,025
“andre ward” 4,640- 210,744
“canelo alvarez” 4,510- 829,055
“adrien broner” 2,290- 308,650
“robert guerrero” 1,720- 226,745
Nonito Donaire not only has the most videos uploaded of him, he also has the video with the highest view count. Meanwhile, Andre Ward has the second largest number of results, but his most popular video only has 210,744 views — which has the smallest view count.
Canelo, whose most popular video has 829,055, is in 3rd place by number of results.
Bird’s Eye View of Trends
What should we make of all of this? It’s clear that though Adrien Broner has brought in the highest ratings during 2012, the two fighters with the most star appeal are Canelo Alvarez and Nonito Donaire. It is no coincidence that both their regional interest of appeal is outside the United States in countries which there is no HBO presence (at least officially).
It’s also my personal belief that Canelo has more casual appeal while Donaire has more hardcore appeal. I deduce Canelo’s casual appeal by Twitter follower and Facebook likes count, while I can decipher Donaire’s hardcore appeal by Twitter mentions as well as YouTube video uploads.
So what to make of Broner? There is no doubt that he has appeal amongst Americans. As well, he has a passionate and vocal fan base. However, it is questionable that he will have the global appeal of Canelo and Donaire.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Boxing/comme...breakout_star/
Here's a good analysis that was posted on Reddit of the likelihood of various fighters being the next major breakout star.
Google Trends
Next, I decided to look at Google Trends to see what else might be going on. According to Google, interest is as follows:
Name Average Volume
Canelo Alvarez 10
Nonito Donaire 5
Andre Ward 3
Adrien Broner 3
Robert Guerrero 2
Now for peak volume:
Name Peak Volume Date
Canelo Alvarez 100 September 2012
Nonito Donaire 56 December 2012
Andre Ward 39 September 2012
Adrien Broner 29 July 2012
Robert Guerrero 16 July 2012
To summarize Google Trends, Canelo has far more volume than anyone else, with twice as much volume as Nonito Donaire, his closest competitor. Ward and Broner have identical volumes, but Ward’s volume is due to a larger peak date than Broner’s. As for Guerrero, why did July find more volume than November?
To answer this question, we need to look at each fighter’s regional interest.
Canelo Alvarez - Regional Interest
1. Mexico - 100
2. United States - 30
3. Argentina - 11
4. Spain - 4
5. United Kingsom - 3
As we can see here, Alvarez’ appeal in Mexico far outweighs his appeal in the United States — although there is genuine crossover interest in the United States as well.
Nonito Donaire - Regional Interest
1. Philippines - 100
2. Mexico - 19
3. Saudi Arabia - 6
4. Spain - 5
5. United States - 5
Popularity in the Philippines is expected. After all, Donaire is Filipino so that’s where the bulk of his fanbase would be. But why Saudi Arabia? The answer is that Saudi Arabia has a sizable amount of Filipino migrant workers.
The other surprising point of interest here is that Mexico has far more interest in Donaire than the United States. I suspect that this has to do with Donaire’s wins over Fernando Montiel and Jorge Arce — both fighters who are hugely popular in Mexico. In addition, the United States rarely has interest in fighters below 135lbs.
Andre Ward - Regional Interest
1. United Kingdom - 100
2. Romania - 97
3. United States - 77
4. Canada - 48
Amusingly, Ward has far more regional interest in Europe than the United States. Why is this?
For the United Kingdom, it has to do with Carl Froch — a rival to Andre Ward who has grown in popularity. Ward-Froch was the final fight in the Super Six tournament. Indeed, Froch’s P4P status amongst many is due to how well he did against Ward (though he lost).
As for interest in Romania and Canada, this is due to Lucian Bute, a Romanian super middleweight who fights out of Montreal. It was once thought that Bute would fight Ward, but this hope was dashed after his decimation by Froch.
Ward did not have much appeal in the United States, but after his domination of lineal light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson, this might change soon.
Adrien Broner - Regional Interest
1. United States - 100
2. United Kingdom - 75
3. Canada - 35
Surprisingly, Broner is not really popular outside the anglosphere. It’s obvious why so many Americans and Canadians like Broner: he reminds them of Floyd Mayweather Jr.
But why the interest in the United Kingdom? The answer is that there’s been much hype of an eventual showdown against Scotsman Ricky Burns who’s often considered Broner’s equal in the lightweight division.
Robert Guerrero - Regional Interest
1. Turkey - 100
2. Mexico - 55
3. United States - 54
4. United Kingdom - 34
The reason for Turkey’s high interest is simple. In July 2012, he fought Selcuk Aydin — who is Turkey’s biggest boxing draw.
As for Mexico, I’m assuming it’s due to Guerrero’s Mexican-American background. But I’m not entirely sure.
Social Media
I’m now going to cast my eye towards three social media sources: Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube.
Twitter is particularly useful because much of the data is public, and I’m able to use 3rd party tools to better assess what’s going on. First, I’m going to look at the most simple metric of all: follower count.
Name Follower Count
Guerrero 162,690
Canelo 161,799
Ward 152,252
Donaire 84,924
Broner 67,777
Right here, it looks like Guerrero is the most popular fighter on Twitter, followed by Canelo. However, it is easy to monkey around with Twitter follower counts. If you have the money, you can buy them.
Follower count should therefore be balanced with keyword comparison as well as mentions count. Here’s the drilldown of each fighter by keyword and mentions during the past few weeks.
Keyword Hits
“nonito donaire” 33% (1,657)
“adrien broner” 25.2% (1,262)
“robert guerrero” 23.6% (1,185)
“canelo alvarez” 12.3% (618)
“andre ward” 5.9% (294)
Twitter Handle Mentions
@filipinoflash 33.3% (2,098)
@adrienbroner 25.5% (1,609)
@canelooficial 18.1% (1,137)
@ghostboxing 12.1% (764)
@andreward 11% (691)
(If you’re curious why I only have data for the past few weeks, it’s due to Twitter only caching their data for a two week period. To gauge interest for longer, I would have to use some archiving tools — which are not retroactive.)
What’s interesting here is that though Donaire and Broner have far less followers than Guerrero, Canelo, and Ward, they have far more keyword and mentions counts. In fact, for both Donaire and Broner, the numbers are consistent: 33% and 25% of keyword hits and Twitter handle mentions.
The next thing to look at is Facebook Page likes. I like to compare Facebook to Twitter due to the userbase of Facebook being more casual than Twitter’s. Fans on Facebook are different from fans on Twitter.
Name Facebook Likes
Canelo 310,105
Donaire 154,736
Ward 24,403
Broner 5,067
Guerrero 4,754
As you can see, Canelo and Donaire have far more Facebook fans than Twitter followers. Ward, Broner, and Guerrero’s likes are far lower than their Twitter follower count.
It’s easy to see why Broner has a lower follower count on Facebook. He’s more active on Twitter, and he heavily encourages his fans to follow him there. His Facebook Page, meanwhile, is a ghost town.
Finally, let’s take a look at YouTube. The great thing about YouTube is that most of the content is user-generated. Moreover, since boxing is a very visual experience, one of the most visual social media sites should therefore be assessed.
YouTube - Keyword - # of Results - View Count of Most Popular Video
“nonito donaire” 6,550- 1,149,025
“andre ward” 4,640- 210,744
“canelo alvarez” 4,510- 829,055
“adrien broner” 2,290- 308,650
“robert guerrero” 1,720- 226,745
Nonito Donaire not only has the most videos uploaded of him, he also has the video with the highest view count. Meanwhile, Andre Ward has the second largest number of results, but his most popular video only has 210,744 views — which has the smallest view count.
Canelo, whose most popular video has 829,055, is in 3rd place by number of results.
Bird’s Eye View of Trends
What should we make of all of this? It’s clear that though Adrien Broner has brought in the highest ratings during 2012, the two fighters with the most star appeal are Canelo Alvarez and Nonito Donaire. It is no coincidence that both their regional interest of appeal is outside the United States in countries which there is no HBO presence (at least officially).
It’s also my personal belief that Canelo has more casual appeal while Donaire has more hardcore appeal. I deduce Canelo’s casual appeal by Twitter follower and Facebook likes count, while I can decipher Donaire’s hardcore appeal by Twitter mentions as well as YouTube video uploads.
So what to make of Broner? There is no doubt that he has appeal amongst Americans. As well, he has a passionate and vocal fan base. However, it is questionable that he will have the global appeal of Canelo and Donaire.
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