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If - IF - the same version of Mayweather that showed up to fight Shane Mosley 16 months ago shows up on Saturday night against a big, young, strong and hungry Victor Ortiz, Floyd will head to the locker room at 41-1, and Ortiz will become the darling of the sport.
Here is why:
I went back and watched the Marquez fight, and the Shane Mosley fight. Twice. In the Marquez fight, JMM landed a couple of hard shots on Floyd early in the fight. You can see here @ 5:23 that Marquez pumps a (throwaway) jab, then lands a good right over the top. Remember that.
Now, fast-forward to the Shane Mosley fight. Remember the first round where Mosley fell? Why did he fall? He threw a bait jab and then Shane tried his Sunday punch over the top and lost his balance, Floyd narrowly slipped it.
Now, second round. Shane AGAIN pumps a throwaway (distraction) jab followed by everything he has into the right hand . At 0:05...
So, Floyd crowds Mosley and has nearly recovered. Shane then AGAIN does the SAME two-piece and catches Floyd at 0:33
So, Mosley went in with that gameplan. To see a fighter doing the same move several times early in a fight tells you it is his gameplan. Think Martinez' left hook that he threw four times until he caught Paul Williams. Using a Mayweather example, think about the check-hook that he hit Hatton with all night. That was Shane's plan. Feint the jab which gets Floyd to react, and bomb away with the right.
Floyd was celebrated for adjusting after he was hurt, but the point is that he never SHOULD have been hurt by that. He SHOULD have seen what Mosley was doing after the first THREE times Shane did it.
Which brings us to Saturday, September 17. There are several factors at play here:
Southpaw Stance: I have seen Floyd get hit hard by nearly every southpaw he has faced. Sharmba hit Floyd flush before Floyd turned southpaw himself. Chop-Chop caught Floyd with a massive looping right that had FMJ go back to the ropes to defend. Zab caught Floyd with a hard, straight left that again had PBF going back to the ropes to defend. So, Floyd's lapses vs. Southpaws are clearly evident.
Early Fight Opportunity: Floyd absolutely takes a few rounds to adjust. PARTICULARLY as he has gotten older and less active. Hatton's movement made Floyd fall off-balance in Round 1, although PBF had slipped the punch. Floyd and Judah got tangled in round 2 and nearly fell, not to mention the glove touching the canvas on another occasion in that fight. Even Marquez was able to land (above). And the Mosley fight (round 2, above) was the most Floyd has ever been hurt, despite what he says.
In summary, the confluence of the factors above tells me that this will be a VERY dangerous fight for an aging Mayweather. And for those who don't believe Floyd is aging, please list the guys in the HISTORY of boxing who are natural SFW's/LW's (even JWW's) and are not faded by age 35. Floyd turns 35 in a few months. 35. Inactivity doesn't help againg speed fighters... it hurts them.
Ortiz seems hungry. Motivated. In shape. He has little to lose.
Despite what the oddsmakers and boxing pundits are telling you, the stage is set for an upset here.
... the only question is if Victor will lay it all on the line. He should.
Here is why:
I went back and watched the Marquez fight, and the Shane Mosley fight. Twice. In the Marquez fight, JMM landed a couple of hard shots on Floyd early in the fight. You can see here @ 5:23 that Marquez pumps a (throwaway) jab, then lands a good right over the top. Remember that.
Now, fast-forward to the Shane Mosley fight. Remember the first round where Mosley fell? Why did he fall? He threw a bait jab and then Shane tried his Sunday punch over the top and lost his balance, Floyd narrowly slipped it.
Now, second round. Shane AGAIN pumps a throwaway (distraction) jab followed by everything he has into the right hand . At 0:05...
So, Floyd crowds Mosley and has nearly recovered. Shane then AGAIN does the SAME two-piece and catches Floyd at 0:33
So, Mosley went in with that gameplan. To see a fighter doing the same move several times early in a fight tells you it is his gameplan. Think Martinez' left hook that he threw four times until he caught Paul Williams. Using a Mayweather example, think about the check-hook that he hit Hatton with all night. That was Shane's plan. Feint the jab which gets Floyd to react, and bomb away with the right.
Floyd was celebrated for adjusting after he was hurt, but the point is that he never SHOULD have been hurt by that. He SHOULD have seen what Mosley was doing after the first THREE times Shane did it.
Which brings us to Saturday, September 17. There are several factors at play here:
Southpaw Stance: I have seen Floyd get hit hard by nearly every southpaw he has faced. Sharmba hit Floyd flush before Floyd turned southpaw himself. Chop-Chop caught Floyd with a massive looping right that had FMJ go back to the ropes to defend. Zab caught Floyd with a hard, straight left that again had PBF going back to the ropes to defend. So, Floyd's lapses vs. Southpaws are clearly evident.
Early Fight Opportunity: Floyd absolutely takes a few rounds to adjust. PARTICULARLY as he has gotten older and less active. Hatton's movement made Floyd fall off-balance in Round 1, although PBF had slipped the punch. Floyd and Judah got tangled in round 2 and nearly fell, not to mention the glove touching the canvas on another occasion in that fight. Even Marquez was able to land (above). And the Mosley fight (round 2, above) was the most Floyd has ever been hurt, despite what he says.
In summary, the confluence of the factors above tells me that this will be a VERY dangerous fight for an aging Mayweather. And for those who don't believe Floyd is aging, please list the guys in the HISTORY of boxing who are natural SFW's/LW's (even JWW's) and are not faded by age 35. Floyd turns 35 in a few months. 35. Inactivity doesn't help againg speed fighters... it hurts them.
Ortiz seems hungry. Motivated. In shape. He has little to lose.
Despite what the oddsmakers and boxing pundits are telling you, the stage is set for an upset here.
... the only question is if Victor will lay it all on the line. He should.
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